January 2nd, 2009
02:40 PM ET
5 years ago

Carville makes painful prediction for 2009

 Simple math says Democrats are more likely get caught up in a scandal, Carville says.
Simple math says Democrats are more likely get caught up in a scandal, Carville says.

WASHINGTON (CNN) - You know, people will insist that 2008 had 366 days. I don't believe it. I think it had 36,066 days.

It certainly felt much longer than any year that I've ever experienced. Only time will tell what's in store for us in 2009, but first I have a few predictions.

Internationally, I believe there will be a peace agreement between Israel and Syria in the next 18 months. It is something that will be a priority for the incoming Obama administration.

In domestic politics, my first prediction is one that pains me to make, but I'll make it anyway.

The Democratic Party has had a recent run of corruption and sex scandals. Mathematicians say that there are no such things as streaks and that the last event has nothing to do with the next. The only people who disagree are crapshooters and political operatives. Since I am both, I firmly believe that there are streaks and that political scandals happen in clusters.

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Filed under: James Carville • Politics
soundoff (227 Responses)
  1. Mike

    Quoted from "seriously?"

    Obama isnt running this country by himself!

    By that thought then neither did Bush for the last 8 years. I don't think he did many things that great but to put the entire blame of the world's ecomonic collapse squarely on his shoulders is to believe he had more power than he actually had.
    Look, it takes an entire government to put our country in the complete disarray that it was in, and last time I checked the Democrats had a majority in both the House and the Senate.
    Let's put the blame right where it belongs, on the Republicans AND Democrats together. They are both to blame for the debacle we find ourselves in here in THIS country. Put the blame for the rest on the world on their leaders and governments but don't blame the U.S. for their failures. They should have been more prepared and less reliable on the U.S. for their own economies.

    January 2, 2009 02:59 pm at 2:59 pm |
  2. clifford

    Does anyone know how Sara Palins 2009 calender became a #1 best seller after all the hateful Liberal posts about her I've read on CNN and elsewhere ! This woman is much more popular than any of you are giving her credit for and the Democratic party is terrified of her!

    January 2, 2009 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
  3. Rob Stumpf

    Obama is going to fail. I don't hate him (don't care about him much either way as a person, since I don't know him) but to say liberal policies don't work is to state the obvious. He's going to fail, and no "support" in the world is going to make a difference. Supporting a failed ideology isn't magically going to make that ideology work.

    Not supporting a politician does not equal "hatred". That's completely stupid. That means that everyone who didn't support Bush was a hater, too, right? But it only seems to work in one direction.

    When Obama goes down, he can take Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, the Kennedys, and the Chicago political machine with him. Good riddance.

    January 2, 2009 03:05 pm at 3:05 pm |
  4. Joyce Becker

    James, James, James, there are many more things to worry about than scandals. I really think you are losing it what did Mary put into your coffee this morning anyway. As for a peace between Israel and Syra, that would be a wonderful day if that ever happened, but I would not ever predict it the way things are going. Do something better with your time than just predicting the future, we need a bit of sanity in this country.

    January 2, 2009 03:09 pm at 3:09 pm |
  5. Bev

    Of course the Democrats want scandal and doom...they can blame Bush for everything...instead of fixing the problem...But when that big terrorist attack happens (and it will) the American people will remember how safe they were under a Republican watch and the Dems will be history again. We will spend the next four years in "drama" mode just like when Clinton was in office and then a wake-up call will snap us into reality and remind us that there is a world out there who wants to destroy us and no matter how powerful you are or how many friends you have on NBC and CNN you can't bury your head in the dirt and make it go away.

    January 2, 2009 03:10 pm at 3:10 pm |
  6. Mike

    I'm a Republican. Why? Becuase we can't all be on welfare and living off the government.
    Someone has to pay for the fat, lazy Americans to sit at home with their 12 kids and collect their monthly check for being a burden on society.
    Thank God some of us have some respect for ourselves as well as our friends and neighbors, and the rest of society.
    Just think of the U.S. under a completely Democratic government. No incentive to work and make money because the government would take it all away from you, no incentive to volunteer for anything because the government would make it impossible for you to have any time to do so, and you wouldn't be able to get a welfare check either because the goverment wouldn't have any income due to the complete lack of motivation in this world. Forget hunting for your own food because the Dems would have all your guns. I guess that would pretty much make us a Communist country at that point.
    Way to go Dems. Good vision you provide for us. I applaud you. Welcome back Stalin.

    January 2, 2009 03:10 pm at 3:10 pm |
  7. Griff

    That last guy said to much then shut up.... Irael will not stop this time untill Obama states again that Israel is right... Youy picike Barack Obama.. Now it's up to him to hinding behind George Bush Jnr... State now ehere he stands.. If he does not then Israel will go the Whole way.... This is the Final for Arabs.... Obama has to decide who/Where is his Loyalty....

    January 2, 2009 03:12 pm at 3:12 pm |
  8. Rob Stumpf

    The success of the Obama administration on the economc front is in all of our interest. <<<

    No, it isn't. What if Obama's plan to "save" our economy is based on our liberty being infringed upon....just suppose? Then of course it wouldn't be in our best interest. You can end the problem of DUI by banning driving....would that be in anyone's interest? No.

    You have to look at the long term instead of the short term. Anyone that truly understands our economic history knows our problems actually stem from too much regulation (Fannie and Freddie are two examples) and not too little. If Obama's plans are bad for the long term, that overrides any short term economic bump we might get out of them.

    January 2, 2009 03:13 pm at 3:13 pm |
  9. Joshua

    I think that there are a few logical fallacies in this piece on clusters of scandals, and there is also one major misperception. The idea that streaks exist is acceptable, but I believe that it has been given a causal relationship that is not valid. If you are rolling a dice, and you roll five sixes you may say that you are on a streak. The mistake that is commonly made is that the fifth six was rolled because of the last four. In actuallity, the sixes were not rolled because of the streak, but you are on a "streak" because of the sixes. So the causal relation is inversed. The writer says that it is simple math and histroy that the majority is more likely to commit these scandals. Maybe it is just that the majority gets more media coverage. Who knows really? I guess that the problem is that for some reason people seem to think that crime is rampant and out of control even though it is relatively low. All I am saying is that you can blame it on a streak, or on math, or history, but maybe these scandals seem so intertwined or connected because the media portrays it that way.

    January 2, 2009 03:14 pm at 3:14 pm |
  10. Candy

    You know it's a shame these people couldn't be as critical with Bush's first 4 years in office. I have not seen such problems as they are now. You the people who voted for this man's father then the son for 8 years. We had 12 years of this. It always take the Dem's to fix the problems. However, since we have a black man in office he is faced ith so much criticism before he is in office. My prediction that he will be one of the best president you have ever know. Mark my word, because he will.

    January 2, 2009 03:17 pm at 3:17 pm |
  11. Lori In DFW, Texas

    Hey, "libbssuck1".....It's spelled "S-C-A-N-D-A-L".

    A mind is a terrible thing to waste, if you have one. In your case, I wouldn't worry about it.

    January 2, 2009 03:17 pm at 3:17 pm |
  12. In Houston, TX

    I hate it when I take the time to write an intelligent thought provoking response to an article that is completely acceptable and it not show up on the board. I mean, it's not even up for consideration...
    WHAT IS UP WITH THAT?
    And this post which is not thought provoking at all will get in.
    Life is not fair and niether is CNN

    January 2, 2009 03:18 pm at 3:18 pm |
  13. TX_C

    Our country will prevail - give it some time. The Democrats will be successful, if they focus on the real issues – economy, jobs, healthcare, education and NOT be distracted by small/simple things like the Gov in IL. Let it go Democrats and get on to solving bigger problems in this country. After all, this is why the majority people elected you to the congress and senate.

    Predictions are just one's opinion - Don't sweat the small stuff !!

    January 2, 2009 03:22 pm at 3:22 pm |
  14. Rob Stumpf

    I am not optimisitic about the next decade of American history. None of our problems have been solved. <<<

    Well, if you are actually waiting for government to solve your problems....that's probably it right there.

    Corporations are still up to their typical hanky-panky, sucking up cash wherever they can regardless of the effects on human life and happiness. <<<

    Okay...if you believe this, then be the first one on your block to take a voluntary pay cut....since money is bad and all.

    Religious fundamentalists will still do everything possible to ram their particular deity down our throats <<

    Sounds a lot like Obama"s supporters.

    American voters – mostly Conservatives and Moderates – are still in dream-land, hoping for a democracy in which ther are no taxes, everything is free for,<<<

    Nonsense. No one thinks this.

    The Conservative Party (currently called Republicans) has opposed every effort by this nation to solve any problem since the Civil War. <<<

    What nonsense. Makes no sense at all. Many liberal "solutions" have made things worse....the list is too long to fit in this text box.

    While it would help the nation to eliminate them, this is unlikely as they have a following of true believers who are immune to reason and who vote against their own self-interest in every election.<<<<

    It's nonsense to say that people vote against their own self-interest. Translated: if you don't agree with ME, you're hurting yourself! Because of course YOU can never be wrong. YOU know what's best for others, right?

    And I love the "immune to reason" thing. Because you haven't said one intelligent thing yet.

    January 2, 2009 03:22 pm at 3:22 pm |
  15. Dan

    Wow. Isreal and the Palestinians are going to sign another peace agreement within 18 months...you're really going out on a limb there. Here's another prediction: they will be at each other's thoats within 18 months of signing. As far as politicians and ethics are concerned, you really can't combine rabid ambition and hubris with a freeby lifestyle and expect them to do anything but covet the things of their donors.

    January 2, 2009 03:28 pm at 3:28 pm |
  16. John

    If the republicans investigated wall street a fraction of the time they spend investigating democrats we might catch the real crooks in this country.

    January 2, 2009 03:29 pm at 3:29 pm |
  17. tcaudilllg

    James, this is the wrong way. Look not to history but beyond it. If someone's nature makes them unfit for an office, in your judgment, DON'T LET THEM ON THE DEM PARTY TICKET.

    January 2, 2009 03:30 pm at 3:30 pm |
  18. Steve B.

    It will be 4 fun-filled years of watching Obama and the Democrats screw up and reduce the USA to the status of a third world country. The fun all starts on Jan 20th – I can't wait!

    January 2, 2009 03:31 pm at 3:31 pm |
  19. Jay form Jersey

    What's with all the Obama negativity? He's not even president yet.

    Republicans need to worry about their party there's a bunch nut jobs in there.

    January 2, 2009 03:31 pm at 3:31 pm |
  20. Jeanne Bean

    And he says nothing about the economy or anything else ailing OUR country?

    I could care less about politicians bedding with people who are not their spouses. Big whoopee on that prediction!

    January 2, 2009 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
  21. Kathy_in_Indiana

    I get such a laugh when the Republicans lead by Rush Limpball point the finger and say that it was the Democrats who brought on the mess in this country. They are so good at laying the blame at someone elses feet.

    All the Republicans have to do is look in the mirror and remember who was in controll at the top – Bush – a Republican.... for 8 long ugly years!

    And by the way – when will this country have the guts to go after Limpballs anyway – that guy and Hanniety are train wrecks.

    January 2, 2009 03:34 pm at 3:34 pm |
  22. Brooke in PA

    Larry in Houston, you are the only idiot. He didn't predict an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. He predicted it between Israel and Syria. Syria is not Palestine, or did you not make it through high school to learn that? Get a clue.

    January 2, 2009 03:34 pm at 3:34 pm |
  23. Texas Teacher

    Sarah Palin's being heralded in for anything except Soccer Mom Bimbo and Alaska Barbie is about as ludicrous as Paris Hilton being voted in as Secretary of State!

    Anyone who is still counting on anything from the Palin Crowd is unaware of the Republican Party standing at present. It was BECAUSE of Sarah Palin that so many people became dischanted with McCain. Sarah Palin/John McCain politics is at thing of the Past!

    Barack Obama/Joe Biden and the brilliant cabinet chosen will herald in a new day for the Nation AND Politics in general.

    January 2, 2009 03:35 pm at 3:35 pm |
  24. greg greenman

    The problem with America period is it's divisiveness. Politics has divided us. Religion has divided us. Everything divides us. What we need is common ground and respect. You don't like abortion, fine, thats you, it's not me. We can agree to disagree without being vicious about it. Thats your ideology. You think Christianity is the only way to heaven? Fine, think that. But that's not how everyone thinks. The thing that divides us the most is our own hypocrisies. How can we even claim morals but make it ok for Bush to launch a preemptive war? How is that even close to being moral. How can people hate muslims because they view them as terrorists but be ok with Catholics whose priest have been known to act immoral. We got Repubs and Dems acting immorally everyday and yet we sit here and blame the other party. Silly

    January 2, 2009 03:35 pm at 3:35 pm |
  25. Lori

    I agree with Mr. Carville's predictions. On election night, he had predicted that Obama would win with an electoral landslide and he did. I really don't care about the scandals which go back and forth on both sides (the ones caught and the ones yet to be caught) but what I do care about is that PE Obama leads us down the path of recovery- economically, in the international community, etc.

    January 2, 2009 03:36 pm at 3:36 pm |
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