February 27th, 2009
12:40 PM ET
6 years ago

GOP has 2012 gender gap, new poll says

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin leads in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Friday.
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin leads in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Friday.

WASHINGTON (CNN) – As the the first unofficial ballots are cast in the next race for the White House, a new national survey of Republicans indicates that the GOP doesn't have a clear presidential frontrunner - but does have a clear gender gap.

Twenty-nine percent of Republicans questioned in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday say they are most likely to support Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012. Right behind the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, and well within the poll's 4.5 percent sampling error, is former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Twenty-six percent of those questioned say they are most likely backing the former, and possibly future, Republican presidential candidate.

Twenty-one percent of Republicans polled say they most likely would support former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, another GOP hopeful from the last campaign who may put his hat into the ring again.

Nine percent say they would probably back Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, who is considered a rising star in the GOP. On Tuesday, Jindal gave the Republican response to President Barack Obama's prime time address to a joint session of Congress. This poll was conducted before that speech, which drew some critical reviews.

"Since the poll was taken before Jindal's widely-panned speech, his low support is not a reflection on his performance on Tuesday night and is most likely due to the fact that he is not as well known as Palin, Huckabee or Romney, all of whom ran national campaigns in 2008,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

Ten percent of those questioned say they would most likely support some other candidate.

The poll's release comes as conservatives from across the country are gathered in the nation's capital to attend the Conservative Political Action Conference. Those attending the meetings are voting in a straw poll of their favorite candidate for the next Republican presidential nomination. The results will be released Saturday.

While the CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll doesn't indicate a clear frontrunner, it does suggest there's a gender gap among rank-and-file Republicans.

"Among GOP men, the same pattern emerges - no clear advantage for Palin, Huckabee or Romney,” says Holland. “But among Republican women, it's a different story. Palin has a 10-point edge among Republican women, winning 32 percent support among them to 22 percent for Huckabee and 20 percent for Romney. With the sampling error, that's not enough to say for sure that Palin is in the lead, but it does indicate that if the primaries were held tomorrow, Palin would have a good chance of being the favorite among GOP women."

But the 2012 campaign is still a long, long, long way away.

"So many things will happen between now and 2012 that this poll has no real predictive value," says Holland.

The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey was conducted February 18-19, with 429 Republicans questioned by telephone.


Filed under: Bobby Jindal • CNN poll • GOP • Mitt Romney • Sarah Palin
soundoff (92 Responses)
  1. dona

    Oh Please Please let it be Palin! Obama will win re-election easily.

    February 27, 2009 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  2. gl, Pittsburgh

    there's a gender gap among rank and file Republicans. Also, there is a race gap as well.

    February 27, 2009 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  3. Thomas, Illinois

    Sarah Palin? Works for me...Dem's victory for sure...

    February 27, 2009 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  4. Dutch/Bad Newz, VA

    I hope Sarah or Bobby run in 2012. They're both dumb as a box of rocks and it should be a bigger landslide victory for President Obama than it was in 2008.

    February 27, 2009 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  5. Libby, Reston, VA

    Sounds like good news for the Democrats!

    February 27, 2009 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  6. KFR

    She may do well with the republicans polled; but you betcha she is a long way from the White House. I do know that we will see a lot of Sara's ego coming up. Like I said, she is a long way.

    February 27, 2009 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  7. Grog in Ohio

    Old joke... 29% of Republicans want Sarah Palin to run and win their nomination in 2012. 100% of Democrats hopes she does.

    February 27, 2009 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  8. big papa

    Bush Republicans/conservatives (confederates)...

    ...should no longer be allowed to vote...

    ...or run for office...

    ...they're not qualified to do either...

    February 27, 2009 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  9. Patty in the CA mountains

    I would think the gender gap is the least of their issues.....how about their IQ gap....

    February 27, 2009 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  10. Change_Has_Begun

    Doesn't matter Obama will kick any republican to the curb in 2012.

    February 27, 2009 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  11. Elly

    If Palin is their best hope for 2012 bring it on!!! LOL
    What a JOKE!!!
    there are so many other intelligent choices like Ron Paul and Tim Paulenty and evn tho I think he is arrogant Mitt Romey
    Palin will drag you down even more
    Why do you think McCain lost
    Wake up or your party really is in *deeper* doo doo
    than it is already

    February 27, 2009 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
  12. Casey | Sebastopol, CA

    All of which bodes well for the Democratic Party! Music to my ears - except for the part about having to listen to Ms. Moosekiller flap her jaws in that fake Minnesota accent. But hey, maybe she'll read a book or two between now and then?

    I highly recommend ANYTHING by Derrick Jensen.

    February 27, 2009 01:51 pm at 1:51 pm |
  13. Jimmy, Nashville Tn

    29 percent of GOP support Palin for 2012? Great!! The beating they just got in large part due to her will *pale* in comparison to the 2012 Democratic landslide if they nominate her. She's the only person in the GOP dumber than Bush. I guess it's true that the Republican base are completely clueless! They all need to go to Alaska and look at Russia from her house, while their party dissolves itself away into nothingness. Good riddance!

    February 27, 2009 01:51 pm at 1:51 pm |
  14. Ellie

    Naaaaah..... really? Talk about the GOP being in a constant state of delusion. Honestly, is the GOP truly this stupid? What does it take for them to get a clue? Do we need to DRAW them a picture?

    If it takes a POLL to tell these GOP idiots who consistently "brag" about how many "rising starts they have in Jindah. Palin and Limbaugh, and how their own RNC puppet Michael Steele constantly brags about how "hip hop" he is and how "he's DA'MAN" to realize they have a serious GENDER GAP is beyond mind boggling. The GOP without a doubt remains in a serious coma.

    February 27, 2009 01:51 pm at 1:51 pm |
  15. Claudette

    Yes, they have a gender gap, age gap and intelligence gap. America voted and a sign of intelligence is the ability to change your mind when you are wrong. I see no sign of intelligence from the hard right. They spread hate and fear, without ideas, as is proofed from the mess they left for President Obama. As for Rush, the reason women do not like him is that his good ideas are no-exhiting. He is an angry hate filled man. Thank god we have an intelligent, honorable man in office. No red states, no blue just the United States...

    Support our President!

    February 27, 2009 01:52 pm at 1:52 pm |
  16. Meredith

    Sarah for president....how I wish she already was!

    February 27, 2009 01:52 pm at 1:52 pm |
  17. Adrian Cornelius

    If Palin emerges as the front runner, that's a HOT MESS, and the Republicans are in trouble.

    February 27, 2009 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |
  18. gary, gpp

    God help us.

    February 27, 2009 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |
  19. Blah blah blah

    "One note of caution. The 2012 campaign is still a long, long, long way away."

    So why in the world are you conducting a poll on it? It's meaningless – unless you are trying to drive traffic to the site and get folks like me to comment. Otherwise, who cares?

    (Yes, I fell for the bait...sorry now that I did.)

    February 27, 2009 01:54 pm at 1:54 pm |
  20. Concerned in MA

    Here comes the left-wing Palin bashing... and the anti-religious Huckabee bashing in 3....2....1.....

    February 27, 2009 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  21. Mark

    Cancel that GOP! No one wants your "kind" in the white house. You all have done ENOUGH damage! BYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYEEEEEEEE

    February 27, 2009 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  22. Lisa B

    Oh goody. We all get to watch Caribou Barbie dress another moose! Alert Tina Fey....get out the old wardrobe...its showtime!!!

    February 27, 2009 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  23. Tulsa L

    Yes, let it be Palin , I can just hear it now, she will start up with Obama "Palling around with Terrorist", insighting near riots at her campaign speeches, and dredging up Old Joe the Plumber , having Rush Limbaugh throughing his support to her , refusing to do major interviews, staying away from News media that can call her on her intelligence, listening to her whine about how the media is not fair to her........I can hear it all now, and we will be laughing all the way to the POLLS to vote OBAMA again.........

    February 27, 2009 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  24. simp

    LMAO, is this all they got? Oh have the repubs forgot about fat head, big mouth rush? Let them put that idiot in the running considering what they have already, (losers) his level of intellengence would fit in quite nicely. This is truly a sad pathetic party.

    February 27, 2009 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
  25. ETM

    In other words, which of these losers gets trounced by Obama?

    February 27, 2009 01:56 pm at 1:56 pm |
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