April 26, 2009
Posted: April 26th, 2009 12:00 PM ET
Larry Summers said the recession will continue for 'some time to come.'
Larry Summers said the recession will continue for 'some time to come.'

WASHINGTON (CNN) – One of President Barack Obama's top economic advisers predicted Sunday that the economic downturn will continue for the next several months despite some signs that a recovery may take root by the end of 2009.

"I suspect that the economy will continue to decline for some time to come," National Economic Council Director Larry Summers said. But "I do think if you look at the consensus of professional forecasters, that consensus suggests a somewhat better performance towards the end of the year."

The former Clinton administration treasury secretary, speaking on the show "Fox News Sunday," noted that were several indications that the economy was starting to turn the corner.

"Six or eight weeks ago, there were no positive statistics to be found anywhere. The economy felt like it was falling vertically," he said.

"Today, the picture is much more mixed. There are some negative indicators, to be sure. (But) there are also some positive indicators."

Among other things, Summers highlighted a recent spike in mortgage refinancing, as well as a substantial reduction in credit spreads for consumers.

Summers warned, however, that it will take at least half a year for the administration's recovery program to start impacting the economy in any significant manner.

"Experience suggests that ... even strong plans take time, take six months or more, to have their impact on the economy," he said.

He also indicated that rising unemployment would continue to be a nationwide problem.

"If you look at the pattern in the economy, it was clear that there were going to be sharp declines in employment for quite some time this year," Summers said.
Turning to the question of the struggling U.S. auto industry, Summers expressed hope that Chrysler might be able to avoid what many analysts now believe is an imminent bankruptcy. The company is facing a Thursday deadline to come up with a viability plan that includes a merger with European automaker Fiat.
"We're hopeful that the negotiations (with Fiat), which have been proceeding with great energy, are going to conclude successfully. It's in everybody's interest, we believe, to see these negotiations succeed," he said.
At the same time, however, Summers was careful to minimize the negative fallout of a possible Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing for Chrysler.
"In certain circumstances, a bankruptcy ... is really about change in legal form that actually protects the company and enables it to function more effectively," he said.

Filed under: Economy • Larry Summers


Gary   April 26th, 2009 4:33 pm ET

haha he fell asleep at a white house economic meeting!

Of course the economic decline will continue. We have too much debt: mortgage debt, credit card debt, corporate debt and federal debt. Obama's plan is to borrow and spend $1.5 trillion this year and another $3 trillion over the next 3 years. This will crowd out the credit market, lower our nation's credit rating, devalue the US dollar and sufficate our entire federal budget (this even worse than Bush including the war spending, ugh!) – - we will suffer with a bad economy until someone realizes that we need to cut spending, balance the budget, get people back to work, stop promising people free things, drill for american oil, use more alternative fuels, improve our school system and encourage people to buy american made products. When will our leaders get it????

Alex   April 26th, 2009 4:31 pm ET

The economic decline will continue until Goldman-shysters like Summers and Geithner are fired!

Simmy   April 26th, 2009 2:45 pm ET

We're in an economic rain storm now, but sunshine is about to peak through and dispel the clouds...... Be patient -- Have faith....God bless America, land that I love...

Larry from RI   April 26th, 2009 2:36 pm ET

Thanks again Republicant's!

The GOP recession, the gift that just keeps on giving.

John-Sturgis, S. Dakota   April 26th, 2009 2:21 pm ET

The republicans who are screaming socialism today, will be at the front of the line tomorrow accepting the praises for the economic recovery. Americans won't forget the GOP chants for failure, led by the GOP cheerleader Rush Limpbaugh. Not a typo...fact.

Texas Teacher   April 26th, 2009 2:08 pm ET

Geo. W. Bush and Dick Cheney have run this country into the ground over greed... not growth, but pure greed for both the wealithest of their buddies and themselves. They took us into a war because they wanted to. And I will never feel that they did not have a hand in 9/11. They were taking over the country for the wealthy and the Republican party. They thought we were a bunch fools eager to be led over the nearest cliff by their snake oil sales techniques. It nearly worked again... but the intelligent people of this country, the silent majority, stood up and said we have had enough!

Palin Power   April 26th, 2009 1:53 pm ET

The economic will truly recover when Palin defeats Obama in 2012 and fully implement Palinomics. Only Palinomics has the ability to save this world economy from going into a complete collapse.

Fan of Common Sense   April 26th, 2009 1:52 pm ET

Yeah, the decline will continue.......like for the next four years.

Chris   April 26th, 2009 1:49 pm ET

Well S Callahan, I'm not going to get into an argument with you. But perhaps whats wrong with our way of life is that people try and look to the imaginary man in the sky to fix all of our problems.

Lynda/Minnesota   April 26th, 2009 1:46 pm ET

Perhaps if the republican congress has addessed the issues concerning Fannie Mae back in '04 when an audit showed massive problems we might not be in the economic situation we are in now. However, rather than immediately address the situation, congress sat on it until Oct. 06, when a regulatory bill was finally drafted. Because Bush promptly stopped the bill, it never made it to the Senate. Adding insult to injury, G.W. expanded the SHOP program in '02 to include 5 million more low income families to qualify for mortgages than had been able to under Clinton in 1999. Then, in 03, Bush signed the Zero Downpayment Act, thus adding even more low income families to the books. All done with a republican majority in the House and Senate.

susie   April 26th, 2009 1:37 pm ET

Do not blame the Democrats, everything bad is the Republicans fault.

jude   April 26th, 2009 1:33 pm ET

the people they [gov't] got overseeing this recovery its like asking the fox to guard the hen house. ain't that right mr. summers. just like the saings and loan scandal someone benefits. 49 million republicans i wonder if they are really feeling any pain form their debacle ; the party of the haves and have-mores? from what i observe you republicans ain't doing bad at all.

ron   April 26th, 2009 1:25 pm ET

Hmm kind of like the weather person announing that summer is coming and fall will soon follow. Historically our economy goes in these cycles despite our best efforts to eliminate them we cannot control it. The markets will go up, then down then back. What killed us in this case was the garbage hopme loans produced by fannie mae and freddie mac, and pushed for by organizations like ACORN

Marty   April 26th, 2009 1:24 pm ET

Bush & Cheney –Geez- the mess you guys created-
Impeach these guys for economic crises.

We heard the same BS in 1930.....   April 26th, 2009 1:13 pm ET

and the depression went on and got worse for the next many years-
Unemployment is at 21% and rising in several areas of the country-
General Motors is closing for 9 weeks which means all their suppliers are in deep doo doo.

Isn't Summers the guy who fell asleep the other day during the meeting with the credit card companies???

MOJerry   April 26th, 2009 1:11 pm ET

Brad, you're right on with your comments. Taxpayers and the public at large are having to support the same people, banks, and corporations that created this mess. Heaven forbid that we should allow them to miss their payments on their 60' yatcht or their 4th summer home, not to mention their million dollar bonuses or golden retirement plans!

Government of the wealthy, by the corporations, and for the banks is not what the constitution says, but is the reality.

Chenna Benna   April 26th, 2009 1:10 pm ET

I think many people need a good history lesson when it come to what to do during an economic downturn that we are seeing today. Herbert Hoover believed in smaller government and tax cuts for everyone. His philosaphy was put to the test in 1929 when he decided to cut government spending and taxes during a time when many consumers were saving their money all at once and businesses were trying to save money. This lead to the crash of the stock market which was the beginning of the Great Depression.

Before president Obama came in office, many economist said that we need to spend in areas that would prop up our economy and create jobs. This president has been focusing on investing in areas within our country that effect our long term and short term economy. I wonder what people will say when we do begin to pull out of this recession next year. I have a suspicion that there will be a lot of back tracking on previous statements.

Reason   April 26th, 2009 1:08 pm ET

@ Phoenix

So if your wife maxed out your credit card, do you think the answer for fixing your debt issue is to increase and maximize your credit limit with eve higher interest rates?

You then explain to her that at these interest rates, it is going to take us 40 years to pay it off when we can only afford to pay the minimum due?

She tells you that she did it to help you get out of debt. Does this make sense?

But don't worry about it! This is a cool credit card! My kids will have to pay it off when im dead!

Qui-Tam Relator   April 26th, 2009 1:06 pm ET

While our Representatives continue to party in Washington with all of their fund raising friends. I believe that Nero if he were around today would be playing a tune on his violin. WAKE UP AMERICA ! ****************************************************************

phoenix85   April 26th, 2009 12:58 pm ET

Economic decline was brought about by Bush/Cheney fighting two wars, and his tax cutting & spend policies, we are only beginning to fix all the damage they did in 8 years.

S Callahan   April 26th, 2009 12:56 pm ET

For some time, that is a fair statement......the state lies not with one individual but us as a people....deny as long as you want..but this is the consequence of not putting God first in all things....and now..the next story is the release of the vials...swine flu to begin...

Lori   April 26th, 2009 12:55 pm ET

Many economists are now predicting the economy will turn around near the end of the year. Let's see how the Republicans will spin this one. It's President Obama's fault when the DOW plunged (at the beginning of his presidency) and for the unemployment rates but when they hear the economy is recovering they state 'oh it's just the economy fixing itself the way it always does.' Mitt Romney stated that last week on CNN. GOP, we see the hypocrisy and we're waiting for you in 2010!

Tayo   April 26th, 2009 12:49 pm ET

Phoenix86 has always shown through his comment that he's one of the desciples of mighty rush,he has not been objective for once,lets just say he is a Ra,,,,,,st,for him to say the economic problems were obamas fault and until he leaves office for a white before solution can be found.Its pretty shameful!

rich   April 26th, 2009 12:49 pm ET

I guess Summers just woke up. LOL

Gerry   April 26th, 2009 12:49 pm ET

Summers worked for a hedge fund company 1 day a week and making $100,000 a day & now he is a economic adviser over seeing these these same people. Next we will find out he ows back taxes.

Reason   April 26th, 2009 12:47 pm ET

@Margo

If you want to talk about constitutional rights why did Obama choose to keep the patriot act?

One of the first things Obama promised was to get rid of it. So, why did Obama want to keep the patriot act in place? My code of ethics calls this a lie. But, don't worry, there are many more coming..lol.

No more cool aid for you!

P from CA   April 26th, 2009 12:43 pm ET

I personally don't care for Summers but I think he is just making a statement that we can all see for ourselves. No earth shattering new news.

Margo   April 26th, 2009 12:31 pm ET

@Pheonix86 "Economic decline" under Obama? Are you kidding me?

Have you forgotten how the country was gutted, from your constitutionasl rights, to your financial institutions, to your very jobs, under 8 years of Bush and the Republicans?

Obama and his democratic pragmatism is your only hope. You are lucky to have a person of his intellect, integrity, and compassion.

very skeptical of economists   April 26th, 2009 12:30 pm ET

who got us here in the first place

we are in deep doo doo

we will be in deep doo doo tomorrow

forcasts call for continued doo doo

there, that is as much help as the economists have been

Reason   April 26th, 2009 12:24 pm ET

Does everyone think Obama is the one running things?

Summers who is one of the Bilderberg group boys and in bed with the PRIVATELY owned Federal Reserve runs things more than Obama.

Is there any of Obama's cabinet that is not from wall street? Or the federal reserve?

People need to start understanding who really is running things. And it is NOT Obama.

Brad, California   April 26th, 2009 12:20 pm ET

Yeah, you've continued to bailed out the financial industry with money provided by the same people that the banks have screwed for years, you've forced more auto industry layoffs while you continue to fund GM with the money the laid off workers are providing. You've continued to pour money into Iraq and Afghanistan. When does it stop? When do American taxpayers become important enough to consider? Is the infrastructure more important than the taxpayers that make it possible, or are the taxpayers not possible without the infrastructure?

Let the financial infrastructure fail, find its own footing and start over. Even at 8,000, the DOW is still far overvalued. Perhaps we're looking at financial institutions reporting rosy figures now because the accounting rules have changed – anyone can show a profit if you change the accounting rules enough to allow it. And how many quarters can a pig like CitiGroup continue to sell assets to prop up its financial statements?

The phrase "too big to fail" is NEVER true.

Washington and Wall Street have created a bigger mess then their combination did in 1929. And in Washington's collective "wisdom," you've chosen to allow the same people in the public and private sectors who created the problems to be the ones with the expertise to correct them.

What's next Larry?

john kokesch   April 26th, 2009 12:19 pm ET

it took George Bush eight years to put this country in this terrible shape .the way president obama is going ,within a year we will see unbelievable progress on the road to recovery.

The Broker.   April 26th, 2009 12:14 pm ET

For the USA! "Forever under Borack Obama."

john kokesch   April 26th, 2009 12:14 pm ET

it took George Bush eight years to put this country in this terrable shape .the way president obama is going ,within a year we will see unbeleivable progress on the road to recovery.

Chris   April 26th, 2009 12:11 pm ET

The economic crisis is due to the irresponsibility of many, not just one person. Obama is the President now so maybe instead of doing nothing to try to help the economy, maybe he should try out some demand-side economics (you know how democrats think the economy should be run)...oh wait!

^^^For you slow people, I was being sarcastic.^^^

Maybe instead of attacking Obama about the current economic crisis you should be grateful that he is doing all that he thinks is right to help us. There are significant differences between Democrat and Republican economic policies, and frankly...it's the Dems. turn.

Mike   April 26th, 2009 12:10 pm ET

I disagree, Phoenix... at least with your mindset. How and why would anyone predict or hope for economic decline to continue. I think we owe President Obama and his Administration, not to mention our country, a bit more good will than that.

Recession is never easy, for any country or market anywhere, but if you look around you right now you may find that this recession is bringing out the best in some of you and in some of your neighbors. It forces us to tighten our belts, reevaluate our priorities, and make more conscious and intelligent decisions... or we fail. Nose to the grindstone, Americans... don't get down.

sb   April 26th, 2009 12:07 pm ET

Will Summers stop Bloomberg and the MTA from increasing fares!!!

phoenix86   April 26th, 2009 12:01 pm ET

Economic decline will continue as long as Obama remains in office and his tax & spend policies remain in effect.

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