(CNN) - The Conservative Party candidate in the special election for New York's 23rd congressional district has a 5-point edge over the Democrat in the race, according to a new poll.
But the Siena Research Institute survey, conducted the day after the Republican in the race suspended her campaign, suggests that roughly one out of five voters in the district remain undecided just hours before Election Day.
The race has captured national attention because of a split among Republicans, which could allow a Democrat to win the district for the first time in over a century.
The poll indicates that 41 percent of likely voters support Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman, with 36 percent backing Democrat Bill Owens, and 6 percent supporting Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava, who suspended her campaign on Saturday. Scozzafava's name remains on the ballot.
Eighteen percent of likely voters are undecided, double the amount from a Siena survey released Saturday, hours before Scozzafava dropped out of the race. Owens was at 36 percent in that poll, with Hoffman at 35 percent and Scozzafava grabbing one in five voters.
Scozzafava suspended her campaign after a flood of support and contributions by some top conservative names and organizations for Hoffman. Over the past few weeks, the fiscally conservative Club for Growth and the Hoffman campaign have both hit the air with TV spots that paint the third-party candidate as the race's true conservative.
"Hoffman continues to demonstrate momentum, picking up 6 points since Scozzafava pulled out," says Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. "It appears, however, that the majority of Scozzafava's supporters have gone to neither Hoffman nor Owens, but rather into the undecided column, which has doubled since Scozzafava ended her candidacy."
The survey suggests that Hoffman has increased his lead among Republicans, while Owens maintains his advantage among Democrats and has captured a slight lead among independents from Hoffman.
"Owens kept his lead in the northeastern counties steady, while Hoffman extended his lead in the southern counties, and the two are dead even in the northwestern counties, the area in which Scozzafava previously led," says Greenberg
"With nearly one in five voters undecided the day before Election Day and voters still trying to comprehend the dramatic withdrawal of Scozzafava, and her subsequent endorsement of Owens, this is still a wide open race," adds Greenberg.
The seat opened up after nine-term Republican Rep. John McHugh stepped down after being confirmed as Secretary of the Army. The largely rural district spans 11 counties in northern New York.
Republicans have represented this area of the state since 1872. McHugh never won less than 60 percent of the vote in his nine election victories, but Barack Obama did edge out John McCain in the district in last year's presidential election.
Scozzafava won the nomination in a vote taken by the 11 GOP county chairs in the district, rather than through a traditional primary election. The local Republican leaders picked the state assemblywoman, who was also backed by the National Republican Congressional Committee, because they felt her moderate views would appeal to centrist Republicans, independents, and even some Democrats.
The move sparked a revolt among many conservatives, who were angry with what they call her liberal views on same-sex marriage and abortion. They are backing Hoffman, an accountant, who is running on the Conservative Party line.
The Siena College Research Institute poll was conducted Sunday November 1, with 606 likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn
From CNN Politics
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Libs take note. Conservatives are done rooting for political parties. Take Note!! Political Parties care nothing for you...only about power and money.
Repub party;....if you field "democrat light" politicians they will lose. We are sick of bailouts, huge government programs and debt!
Hoffman looks insane.
This race is a testament to the POWER of Sarah Palin. Her simple endorement and fearless stand for conservative values has thrown both sides of the race into a tizzy. Sarah Palin is a powerful political force and this shake-up just reiterates that fact.
Wow the Republicans are having the party hi-jacked by the far right.
I am supporting Doug Hoffman because he believes that the Federal government should be less intrusive in our lives. He believes that individual freedom and liberty can thrive and flourish if the government and its' obnoxious policies and regulations would simply get out of the way. Lower tax burdens, no ACORN funding, no Cap & Tax legislation, no Stimulus spending for 'pet constituents' like the UAW and Service Employees Union, and no public takeover of healthcare...
My support of Hoffman has NOTHING to do with abortion or gay marriage.
Take note of this fact, please.
He seems happy enough....
That is what I like to see. The people voting for the person that they feel is the best man for the job and not voting for their respective party. If we take a closer look at all of the great men and women running as third party candidates, Washington might become a better place!
This Hoffman guy looks scary. Blood could ooze out of his teeth when he speaks! Is that the face of conservatism? You nut wings have lost all form of human decency.
Vote democrat !
These races show how very unhappy a great many Americans are about the heavy handed way in which their wishes are being ignored by the current administration and Congress. People know that money doesn't grow on trees, even if Congress doesn't. People know they will, ultimately, foot the bill for all of these spending excesses and they are going to be trying to modify them. The people are sending a message, and Congress better start listening soon.
I will be suprised if this idiot actually wins in a republican district .m most republicans are finnally getting tired of the lies and threats and how much the Bush Cheney Rove 8 years destroyed this great nation
How is the Federal government intruding in our lives? Be specific. GOPers make these statements, but where's the proof?
Acorn has been funded by BOTH Republican & Democrats. The far-right continues to demonize a community group they hate.
What Stimulus money has been given to the UAW or Service Employees Unions??? Be specific.
(excuse the yelling) HOFFMAN CAN NOT STOP ABORTIONS FROM BEING LEGAL. ITS A CONSTITUTIONAL LAW.
Good grief!
This is GREAT news--possibly another big loss for Obama and the Democrats on Tuesday.
Let's hope that New Jersey does the same-–tells Obama, Corzine, and the Democrats to get lost.
Finally, the RINO shows her true colors. Conservatives are finally being heard after being made the "Silent America" for so long. We are tired of being ignored by the "tax and spend" fanatics of both parties. If you think that Hoffman looks insane, it is only because the mainstream media continues to try to portray him as such. The Republicans are not being hijacked by the right, not any more than the Democrats have been hijacked by the extreme left.
Dems should let this happen, then spend the next yr highlighting everything far right about this guy, as an example of what the GOP has become.
Thank goodness that Conservatives like Palin and Pawlenty endorsed Hoffman instead of Scozzafava who is more liberal than her Democrat rival. The 23rd district is Conservative Republican leaning and should have a different choice other than Far-Left and Way Far-Left. I assume that Scozzafava will now quit pretending to be a Republican and change to the Democratic Party.
This survey was done before Dede saw the light and now stands behind and supports the local Democratic candidate. Conservatives assume they can do as they please, which is obvious, even if it means forcing their views and candidates from outside this district. This is more of an issue of local politics for local people. Not carpetbaggers from Alaska, Texas, and Minnesota.
Yeah, these conservatives want less intrusive government......except telling people who they can marry and whether or not women have the right to choose! Telling a woman what to do with her uterus sounds pretty invasive to me!
I have yet to see any politician who promises to help upstate actually help upstate. Thank God I escaped from there when I did. Whoever wins, nothing will change there. Have a nice day!
Take note? LOL
The far right or the far left like Obie.
Government run car companies, banks, going for healthcare and the energy sector.
Grab your popcorn folks, and watch the smackdown in the Republican Party!
However this race shakes out, the Democrats will be able to use it to their advantage. If the clueless conservative carpetbagger Hoffman wins, the Dems can say he represents the future of the Republican party. If Hoffman loses, the Dems have captured a seat in a Republican "stronghold."
Oh, the fun is just beginning!
The minute, and I mean the minute, these teabagging conservative loons win in any of these 3 elections tomorrow, I hope President Obama goes to each one of them that wins and hands them a big, fat mop so they can start helping to clean up the mess they created under Dick and W. I think President Obama should actually commission Dick and W so they are forced to work to clean up their own mess! Start mopping conservatives and make sure you bring all your sheep with you. Has the Wasilla Hillbilly got her mop yet?
Polls taken immediately after Scozzofava's withdrawal show that Hoffman has a majority of the electorate on his side. Looks like the last of the party stragglers have backed Hoffman.
If the people elect one more dem into office with the current situation in Washington this country is going under. I don't really care for the replublicans either but we have got to slow down the dem's. They have lost their minds.
Our wallets are not big enough to pay for what they have in mind.
in a district that has voted Republican for over 100 years.. this is somehow seen as a huge WIN for the party?
Good luck guys.. you're gonna need it.
The fact that Hoffman is simply a puppet for the national right wing extreme has many citizens living in the district, like myself, scared! The only reason this nut is in the forefront is the millions of dollars from special interest groups that have been pumped into a media blitz; these funds come from people that care nothing about the folks in the 23rd or the issues, but are financing their extreme and scary right wing agenda. Seriously, America, this guy is a fraud and a poster child only...he will do more harm than good for the people of the 23rd.
And so it begins.
2010 is one year away!
I'm glad to see all republicans so giddy that a democrat will not win in a district THAT LAST ELECTED A NON REPUBLICAN BACK IN THE WHIG DAYS OF 1700 OR 1800.
So, pat yourself on the back Mr. Steele, it was ALL YOU BABY! (not)
Referendum, my rear end!
Is it really that big a deal if a conservative district goes for a conservative candidate? Is that really a bad sign for Obama???
so why/how did they get Scozzafava to bow out? It makes no sense. Obviously the Republiklans know how to intimidate a candidate.
Mr. Hoffman, if your mouth is any judge of your character, you will make a lousy, rotten, congressman.
Got Doofus Joe Biden stumpnig for the democrat. Looks like a win for Hoffman and the start of a long goodbye for the Obummer terror.
There is no loyalty in american voters.
How they can vote for a guy who does not live in district does not know local issues and dumb like his supporters.
More proof there is little difference in the 2 parties any longer. I'll vote for any conservative but not any republican. I'm all for individual freedom and liberty and smaller government. That's why I never vote for a liberal. And as the polls show I'm in the majority. Thank God for that. The way these liberals attempt to trample our freedoms and intrude on our lives you would think they are in the majority. Oh well, BO will be a one term wonder and we can get a conservative in there. But not necessarily a republican.
Well, if he wins, the locals that voted for him will get exactly what they deserve. They will be used as fodder for bigger ambitions that have nothing to do with the local community. I can't believe a man who can't answer a single question about 'local' issues, and cannot vote for himself because he does not reside in the district would get elected, but then again, I live in Texas, and we voted Bush and Perry in as Governor..... again, we get what we deserve when we allow these bums to be elected.
Since the NY 23rd was served by three democratic congressmen in a row between 1979 and 1993, could CNN please correct the lie that it has always voted GOP?
And this tells us that much of the NY 23rd are hate filled, hypocritical, Bible banging bigots. Hillbillies in other words. This is any big surprise? Lets hope that if he wins the Democratic party will exile him to political Siberia and cut off any Federal Funding for this region. All conservatives are rotten human beings. I dont undestand why they dont move to the deep south where they belong.
Ewwww!! Look at Hofmann and look at Owens – One of them looks like they have SENSE and the other one looks like a MANIAC!!!!
I am a native-New Yorker but not from the northern part of the state. But I know if I were able to vote in that district, I would go for the one that looks like they have SENSE!!!
That is great news!
Hoffman wins and then the neo-cons think they have the magic recipe for winning in 2012 by running the "christian" Twitter twit for national office, because they would overlook the fact the district has been red for over 100 years and running a neo-Nazi conservative was the only reason Hoffman won!
Now, if her supporters vote for Owens, then the Dems win a seat that has been solidly red for over 100 years
.
And that will have to get the neo-NAZI's attention(altho, they are pretty stupid so this may wash over them as well).
These polls are just here to confuse people in an attempt to INFLUENCE them to turn to the highest poller! I ignore these matters and look at the people running to pick the one I think will be most effective in helping the citizens without wealth and power. This is why Greg Nickols, Seattle Mayor, is out and we are choosing between two other folks. He was not representing we the little folks much, but Big Bidness was doing great with him! Peace from a Seattle, WA Leftist!
Looks like Hoffman represents the values of the voters much better than Scozzafava. Scozzafava was not picked by the district Republican voters in a primary, she was picked by a few party officials who apparently don't represent the values of the people in the district. This looks like a great example of the people taking their government back form out of touch party officials. Good for them!
The Democrats are trying to take over health care and LacrosseMom wants to know how the Federal government intruding in our lives.
The stimulus money went to fund the payrolls of government run school, aka the teachers union. Is that specific enough?
I wonder how the schools would be doing if Carter hadn't federalized the schools back in the 70's. That was government takeover of the private sector and the school system has limped on ever since.
Two out of three American auto makers are owned by the federal government....guess that takes care of UAW workers.
Nobody is trying to stop abortion....In fact we may encourage it with Democrats
yeah he looks really kooky in that photo
It will be interesting to see the "Palin effect" in the hoffman/owens race. I don't think Palin has much effect in rural upstate ny. that's why I think owens will take the race to the finish line. however, virginia is a different story. even the repubicans are keeping an "arms length" from her – not sure whether she is good for business.
If I were a republican, I would run as fast and as far away from Palin as I could recognizing she is just a politician. haven't we had our fill of that variety of representation?
So let me get this straight. These people are going to vote for a guy who #1, Doesn't live there, #2Who was picked, NOT by the local residents, but the Righties like Palin. #3, Who pounded that poor woman with the most vile political ads. Well, You get what you vote for.
This is a direct reflection of what people think of Obama. People are beating down the doors to start voting to get Obama out. Now with Acorn out of the picture we might actually get an honest election. Scozzafava was obiously just planted by the dems, like a wolf in sheeps clothes. The people knew she wasn't a republican and that is why her poll numbers plummeted, and it was made all the more obvious when she backs a democrat candidate. Libs really are the scum of the earth.
Go Hoffman. A great trojan horse to help destroy the Republican Party.
DearJoe (Biden): Liberals will be taught the lesson come Tuesday 8pm. Not conservatives. You and Obama can do all the campaigning you want for Deeds and Corzine. but when they both lose what will you say? I guess the turnout was low and people are scared...so they voted against the incumbent party – not a reflection on the DEM party. LOL. I see it now – CNN and MSNBC and CNN making excuses.
If you liked Cheney,you will love Hoffman.
I can't wait until 2010...or better yet, 2012.
The CONSERVATIVE Republican Party is a disgrace and an abomination. There is something putrid about these guys and gals. The Republican Parties of past decades did not make me want to shower after I hear or see them speak on issues. I think it may have started with the Newt Gingrich Crew a few years back.
I think New York and the rest of this country is finally starting to wake up.
who votes for this idiot???
Scozzafava has FINALLY shown her true self. A long-time socialist and liberal she NEVER held the values of conservatives.
I think she also realized she was going to get her "Demo loving ideals" handed to her on a plate come election day.
I do appreciate her ADMITTING she is a Democrap in her ideology!
The democrats led by Barry Hussein have blown their chance. Tomorrow is the beginning of the end for the worthless democrats and the begging of the conservative rise.
Even the republican candidate Scozzafava is now backing the democrat over Mr. Yellowteeth. The republican party is truly a fractured entity.
Seems to me the people that are on the extreme are those who want to silence opposition to political party operatives who appointed Scozzofava. Im listening to the rhetoric tht pronounces those who believe in the literal interpratation of our constitution as Nazis with a little amazement, since it is the same left wing idealogues that want to turn our country into a government run subsidy state. Wow extreme means to believe in freedom, life, liberty and the persuit of happiness. The truth must never be redefined. To the Lacrosse mom, cap and trade and government subsidized health care that requires us by law to enroll, Im sorry where' the freedom.
These conservatives put G.W. Bush in trouble
Any way by 2010 no more GOP
Put more conservatives into office and soon we will have another
Bush in the White House!
You bet!
I'm sick of people referring to Palin-types as "Conservative".
The growing and rising power in this nation is not the extremists, the 30% on either end of the idealogical spectrum, which encompass the so-called "middle" as well. Its the TRUE Conservatives, those who are against foreign intervention, against big government, against deficit spending, against government interference in private lives.
A True Conservative would be against foreign wars, against government deciding who can or cannot be married, against government decisions on abortion, against Reagan/Bush/Bush/Obama-style debt spending.
"Social Conservatives" belong in Iran or North Korea. They have no place in the United States. You can't be a supporter of Bush policies, but against gay marriage and call yourself a conservative. Bush was a hard-core, ultra-liberal, with a hint of Sharia-type government social-controls, and anyone who thinks otherwise was blind for 8 years.
I have my opinion, it is righteous.
You have your opinion, it is wrong.
My people will win, your people will lose.
My spokesperson is a genius, yours is an idiot.
There is no common ground, only the darkness and the light.
I pity you all.
CNN says: Republicans have represented this area of the state since 1872.
Peter Peyser (1979-83), Sam Stratton (1983-89) and Mike McNulty (1989-93) are former Congressmen for the 23rd, all Democrats.
It's a curious thing, the way the media try to make a close race look like a huge sea change by telling an outright lie about the district.
I guess it's one to retract AFTER Tuesday.
What message is the Republican party trying to send people? "If you're not a caucasian, right-wing extremist, there's no place in the party for you!"
Are they for real?
Hoffman is frightening. With all of his conservative values, it doesn't look like he's been too conservative with his dental hygiene.
If a conservative can win in a heavily democratic state like New York and New Jersey, then expect a real blood bath for the democrats next November. I can't wait.
Wow, look at the liberals frothing and foaming.
Hoffman apparently finished gnawing on the bones of puppies and, pausing only to shank a couple of kittens, made his way to the campaign office...
After controlling Congress for 3 years...
After a whole year of having *COMPLETE* control of the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives, the liberal Democrats are *STILL* trying to blame George Bush for everything.
Wow, there's a surprise.
After three years it's still "We're the party that isn't Bush."
Some inspiring leadership you guys have got going there.
Time for America to vote Conservative not for a party. Time to put these liberals back in their closets and only come out to collect their government checks each month.
So, let me understand this "carpetbagger" Hoffman, is bad news, but "carpetbagger" Hillary Clinton was okay for her to run?
OK, he can surge to power and up end the Obama Presidency with the help of all the other Conservative Party members in Congress. Let's see, there is......., and......., and then there is......., and don't forget....... – in other words, who cares! He is sort of a Republican Parrty Charge Of The Light Brigade.
A conservative candidate that knows nothing about local issues directly pertaining to D23, just ask the Watertown Daily Times. At a daily times editorial board meeting, he couldn't answer questions relating to local transportation and other economic issues..."A flustered and ill-at-ease Mr. Hoffman objected to the heated questioning, saying he should have been provided a list of questions he might be asked. He was, if he had taken the time to read the Thursday morning Times editorial raising the very same questions.". Smart candidate who's in tune with what's going on in the district he'll be representing.....not.
While the left-leaning populous doesn't have much to lose, since it's 1) The HOR and 2) The seat was left behind by a Republican, John M. McHugh, who is now the United States Secretary of the Army, it would be nice to pullout a victory here. My hope is that with Dede backing Owens and there being about 17% undecided, that the election will go to Owens; say by 3-5% points. In short, it would be a nice win, but not a required win for Democrats.
The media is trying to explain away the voters in NJ not following party lines.
It is very simple. People are feed up with Washington politics and politics as usual. If they would only stop listening to the politicans excuses and open their eyes and their ears they would understand.
Really does not take a brain surgeon, just a little common sense.
Looks like Obama's plan to assign conservative John McHugh to a new post in order to send a RINO to the House may backfire. I hope so because without the help of conservative republicans this country will slide further into the clutches of the Obama regime where we will find ourselves with far less freedom than we have ever known.
The conservative Republicans (sorry I meant the American Talibans) are simply a joke!
I don't understand how someone that doesn't live in that Congressional district can run for office. Even more confusing is why anyone in that district would vote for him. I've been to that part of New York and while it's a very nice part of the state, let's just say that no one would consider it a "big tent" area.
I am an Independent but I say go Hoffman!
Because when you kick God out you let the devil in!
let the ignorant rant. When it becomes "important" for people other than those that live in the district a poltical member represents to play a role...then democracy becomes broken. Open your eyes America.
Why do conservatives want less government but still want to weigh in on such highly personal issues as abortion and gay marriage?
Oh, I know – they're idiots.
Yes. We want less intrusive government; in fact, get government out of personal life completely!
Ooh...but we will legislate based on faith. We will also decide who can marry whom. We will also favor religion. We will also tell you how to run your uterus. And what you're not allowed to do. And what you are allowed to do. We also reserve the right to follow, watch, and listen to you without your permission.
Other than that, we're non-intrusive.
That's right america if you agree with sara palin then vote this man in
and remember what he really stands for we had 8 years of this idealogy and look where it got us this congressman will come in and side with the republicans in the senate and we know what they do.
Conservative wacko's. Take everyone's rights away. Sound like communist to me.
If the hoffman and palin types are elected your kids will soon be required to practice their right wing conservative religion in school, if you and the kids don't you will be taken out to the nearest tree and hanged or burned at the stake as a witch. Yep, the right wing evangelical gestapo, coming soon to a school near you.
Why can't he run for president? Stupid conservatives