November 2nd, 2009
03:59 PM ET
4 years ago

Polls suggest dead heat in battle for New Jersey governor

(CNN) - With just hours to go until Election day, two new polls suggest New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine's in a statistical tie with his Republican challenger, Chris Christie.

According to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind survey released Monday afternoon, 43 percent of likely New Jersey voters back Corzine, the Democratic incumbent fighting for a second term, and 41 percent support Christie, the former federal prosecutor in the Garden State. Eight percent back independent candidate Chris Daggett, and 7 percent support other candidates, or are undecided.

Corzine's 2-point advantage is well within the poll's sampling error. Christie was up 2 points over Corzine in a Fairleigh Dickenson University survey released Friday.

According to a Quinnipiac University survey released Monday morning, 42 percent of likely New Jersey voters back Christie, with 40 percent supporting Corzine, and 12 percent backing Daggett. Six percent of likely voter in that poll remain undecided.

Christie's 2 point advantage is also well within the poll's sampling error. A Quinnpiac survey released last Wednesday had indicated that Corzine held a 5 point lead, not quite large enough to be statistically significant in that poll.

Most surveys in New Jersey over the past seven weeks have suggested that Corzine and Christie were deadlocked, with Daggett polling in the low double digits.

The poll indicates that 38 percent of Daggett supporters say they might change their mind. Thirty-nine percent say Corzine is their second choice, while 29 percent say Christie is number two. Only one in ten Christie backers and just 13 percent of Corzine backers say they might change their mind.

"Daggett is the key to an incredibly close New Jersey election," says Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In most races - including the one in Virginia this year - the outcome hinges on turnout," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But in New Jersey, the outcome is likely to be determined by the size of the vote for minor-party candidates. If turnout is relatively high but all the extra voters choose an independent candidate, that won't affect the margin between the Democrat and the Republican."

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted October 27-November 1, with 1,533 New Jersey likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

The Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll was conducted October 22-November 1, with 1,119 New Jersey likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.


Filed under: Chris Christie • Chris Daggett • Jon Corzine • New Jersey • Polls
soundoff (23 Responses)
  1. KAREN

    Go Christie. Throw the bum out. NJ could not get any worse. Unemployment, Taxes.Small business. Nj needs a change that is a CHANGE>

    November 2, 2009 04:03 pm at 4:03 pm |
  2. seebofubar

    Let's see, an incumbent in a highly democrat state who has spent millions of his one cash as well as party money, has had the President and Vice President campaign for him is in a dead heat with a Republican? Shows how much Americans hate the direction the democrat party wants to take this country!!

    November 2, 2009 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  3. Ann

    Interesting, Pres. Obama has visited NJ more times in support of Gov. Corzine then for his own presidential campaign. Reeks of Corzine desperation.

    November 2, 2009 04:17 pm at 4:17 pm |
  4. Dan Holiday

    Wow. And here I thought the GOP was becoming extinct and irrelevant. Well, at least that is what I read daily on this ticker...lol. Guess all of those liberals were wrong. Even if Christie loses, it will be a victory for the GOP. Why? Because the race is so very close. How in a Democrat state, with and incumbent Governor, spending millions and millions of dollars, getting the endorsement of the President and Vice-President, is the GOP challenger even remotely close. I will tell you why. The people of NJ and of the U.S.A. are already regretting their choice in these last two election cycles. They are wanting to get rid of these Democrat bozos and put real adults with real American values back in power...GOP. Well, like I said, either way this is a huge victory for the GOP.

    November 2, 2009 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  5. Tom in Delaware

    Every New Jerseyian I know is voting for Christie...looking for the triple-play tomorrow.

    November 2, 2009 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  6. Mike

    The GOP turning on their own candidate for an ultra right wing outsider. Just shows how the Republicans are un raveling. Their favorite news commentators include Beck who sells end of the world vegetable seeds on his radio show. And Lou Dobbs who makes an innocent hunting incident into a left wing conspiracy to shoot his wife.
    Whats next ? Will Dobbs release a big balloon and say the lefties put his wife inside ?

    November 2, 2009 04:21 pm at 4:21 pm |
  7. Bren

    Real Clear Politics--an average of all polls--is showing Christie +1.2--a tie.

    Out of the 3 elections-–this is the one that I would LOVE for the Democrats to lose the most.

    However, it does say a lot..........When a Republican candidate is tied for the seat in a Democrat stronghold state.

    November 2, 2009 04:24 pm at 4:24 pm |
  8. Jeremy

    It seems that the President has lost his luster a little bit. His appearances with Corzine have made little difference in the polls. I think Virginia is in the bag for the Republicans, but we'll have to see how New Jersey and New York come out. This should be an interesting race.

    November 2, 2009 04:33 pm at 4:33 pm |
  9. Sea.gem

    Al the money being spent here is ridiculous...where are the Dems that lament "rich, white guys"...wait...that is your party too....lemmings.

    November 2, 2009 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  10. chinadoll

    NJ is a blue state and will stay that way!

    November 2, 2009 04:39 pm at 4:39 pm |
  11. Beverly in NC

    Let's hope the people in New Jersey vote for integrity and a governor who will have their best interests at heart. That's Democrat Corzine.

    No Republican can be trusted to lead in any position of power. They care nothing about Americans and focus totally on political games and granting favors to their rich friends and corporations who bribe them for votes against America's best interests.

    Republicans are liars and traitors – we need to rid these hate mongers from all elected offices.

    November 2, 2009 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  12. Jane/Seattle

    I don't give polls any credibility as they are used to influence voters.

    November 2, 2009 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  13. Shari, NY

    I don't have a bone in this, but I wish my neighbor, NJ, all the best.

    November 2, 2009 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  14. W l Jones

    Its time for the New Jersian to change Jersey and get on the Democratic winning team.
    , Change you can feed your family with dignanity.

    November 2, 2009 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  15. greenfish

    Christie says nothing, but the old tired Republican mantra of cutting taxes. All that does is throw us deeper into debt and guess what – eventually the bill has to be paid! Not an original idea out of that lame party in 25 years.

    Corzine ain't great by a long shot, but he has a brain.

    November 2, 2009 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  16. yuri

    At this juncture, it appears as though the cacophony of the NJ race is so loud that it is very difficult to relax, sit back and enjoy the show.

    November 2, 2009 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  17. diridi

    new jersey, just go for Jon Corzine....listen, this North carolina lady, called Verginia Foxx, 65 year old lady, has no brain to comment on health care reform with public option....listen, what GOP and Republican thugs are doing...care for America, and vote jon corzine....god luck...God bless you....

    November 2, 2009 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  18. Mark

    Obama campaigned for him so I predict a bad turn out.

    November 2, 2009 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  19. C. Farrell, Houston, Tx

    N. J. is one of the most expensive places to live and I don't see why, let the Repugs have it.

    November 2, 2009 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  20. Fair is Fair

    You say it's a dead heat.

    I say Corzine is dead meat.

    November 2, 2009 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  21. victim of republican greed

    We all felt that America could not get worse, so we elected Bush. Now we know how well off we were before he took offiice. The same is true for New Jersey.

    November 2, 2009 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  22. Clayton

    Let's see...my choices....

    A Democratic governor who has raised the tax rate to 10 percent, has a budget deficit of 8 billion dollars, is hated by more than two thirds of the state, wants to lease the Garden State Parkway and Turnpike to raise money, and...oh yeah, doesn't even follow the law by almost getting killed in a speeding incident with a state trooper driver..

    or a Republican US Attorney who is responsible for locking up more corrupt New Jersey politicians than any other in state history.

    The choice is clear.... GO CHRISTIE GO!!!!

    November 2, 2009 05:26 pm at 5:26 pm |
  23. Debby

    Bye bye Corzine maybe its the beard. LOL

    November 2, 2009 05:37 pm at 5:37 pm |