CNN

Washington (CNN) - If Democrats suffer a loss in an upstate New York congressional race Tuesday, it could well spark an uneasy celebration among Republican leaders.

The party establishment, still in rebuilding mode heading into next year's midterm elections, watched helplessly this weekend as Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava was driven from the race by grass-roots activists in favor of a more conservative candidate.

Finding out whether Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman wins or loses won't resolve the race's biggest mystery: What does the successful inner-party insurgency in the race mean for the GOP in the Tea Party era?

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