(CNN) -- A new poll suggests that the big television ad push by New York Gov. David Paterson's campaign may not be quite as effective as he'd hoped: A Marist College survey released Friday indicates that 56 percent of New York state voters have seen at least one of Paterson's television commercials - and those who'd seen the ad appeared slightly less likely to support his run.
Sixty-one percent who hadn't seen the ad thought the governor should not remain in the 2010 race. Among those who'd actually seen the spot, that number was roughly 4 points higher: Nearly two-thirds of those who say they've seen the ad don't think Paterson should run in 2010. That 4-point margin is just outside the poll's 3.5 percent sampling error.
Paterson went up on the airwaves last month with a major ad campaign designed to reintroduce himself to voters. His campaign said the commercials would run for several weeks, and constitute a "multi-million dollar" ad buy. A Siena College Research Institute survey released last week gave a hint the spots might not be having the impact Paterson was looking for: Only 21 percent of New Yorkers had a positive opinion of the job he was doing as governor, with 79 percent holding a negative opinion - a result virtually unchanged from his October showing.
The latest Marist poll suggests Paterson, who took office after Eliot Spitzer's scandal-scarred resignation, trails New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo by nearly 51 points in a hypothetical 2010 Democratic primary matchup - with results virtually the same whether or not a voter has seen the governor's new ads.
Cuomo, the son of former three-term New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, has yet to announce if he'll enter the race.
Two-thirds of those questioned in the survey think Cuomo's doing an excellent or good job as attorney general, while only one in five think Paterson's doing an excellent or good job as governor.
"Right now, Andrew Cuomo has a clear path to become governor," says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Poll. "If he could fast-forward to next November, I'm sure he would."
In a hypothetical general election matchup, the poll indicates that Cuomo leads former Rep. Rick Lazio, the only declared Republican candidate, by 45 points. But a Lazio-Paterson faceoff next year would be a dead heat, according to the survey.
The poll's release comes one day after a spokeswoman for Rudy Giuliani said the former New York City mayor has not made up his mind about running for governor next year. Maria Comella was responding to a Thurday New York Times report that quoted unnamed sources saying Giuliani had decided not to run for New York governor in 2010.
There's speculation that if Giuliani decided against a run for governor, he might consider a Senate run. Top New York Republicans have reportedly urged Giuliani to run for the Senate in 2010 against incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand. A Marist survey released Thursday indicates Giuliani leads Gillibrand by 14 points in a hypothetical Senate race.
The Marist College poll released Friday was conducted November 12, 16 and 17, with 805 registered New York state voters questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn
He needs to give it up, why do you think the adminstration told him not to run? They knew he was not favored. He needs to get out of the way so some other democrat can win this race, he is a hinderance to all us democrats.
Gov. Paterson please keep your dignity by not running for re-election. You need to do what is the best for the people and your political party instead of what you think is best for you. The people have spoken and you should respect public opinion. You became governor by accident and if you run for re-election you will lose. You decided that Cuomo was not the best candidate for U.S. Senator. At this point, Cuomo has an excellent record as AG and has earned the right to be the Democratic candidate for Governor.
So what if he looses. Rethuglicans can have governor jobs. They can't write policy for the nation so who cares. The only governor job I care about is in my state not someone elses. It might make the rethuglicans feel special again... awww, poor cry-babies, their self-esteem is down.
This is NY – my native LAND and New Yorkers know what they want!!! CASE and POINT!!! Paterson did not want to listen and now what?
I think GOOGLIANI is waiting to see if Cuomo runs. If Cuomo DOES NOT – GOOGLIANI could beat Paterson (But not if I were still in NY.... I cannot stand GOOGLIANI)!! Maybe – just maybe – if others think like me – Paterson might be able to win against GOOGLIANI (Hmmmm, I don't know)
Patterson is finished. His tax and spend policies in the middle of the worst recession in history will keep him from getting the democratic nomination in the next election. Andrew Cuomo will crush him.
For the sake of the state of New York please step down and let someone who can win step up. We can not have Guliani or anyone of the right wing nuts run such a beautiful state. Don't do this to my home state.
Where is Eliot Spitzer's ? the guy is the right man for the job!!
This a quote from GenXer from another post from another article, and I think it speaks volumes to how the majority of my generation feels about this recession.
This poll shouldn't have been evaluated based on party lines, but rather along generational lines.
While the Bush administration's asleep at the wheel approach to the economy certainly led us down this path, the real culprit for this mess is the baby boomer generation. From day one this generation did nothing but take for themselves, leaving little to nothing for future generations. Mine and future generations have now been left with mountains of debt, oceans that have been treated like toilets, air pollution, deforestation, extinction, not to mention a powder keg waiting to go off at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea. This "greediest generation", who only lived for today, and didn't plan for their own futures (let alone their children's), were the driving force behind the speculative and over-leveraged behavior that caused this down turn in the first place.
That is all that is required to say, take a look at this, and take it in.
Paterson is wasting his time and money and it doesn't make sense. He's got to know he can't and won't win. Giuiliani still looks like the Joker.
This man has managed to tax so many things that even my democratic friends are ticked. He will not be elected.
Poor guy, he became governor under terrible circumstances. Now that the people of New York have a choice, they are not voting for him.
Politics is a 'dog-eat-dog' business.
I don't know if you are bad or good for NY, all I know is your support structure has abandoned you, you need to find another party
Should have been nicer to Caroline Kennedy...
Paterson's a gonner...Cuomo or GIllibrand is next in line. Rudy will get eaten alive...
GOP: Evolve or die
The ads might work if it didn't show his ugly face.
let's see – why are the ads not working? could it be because Paterson is an iodiot? Oh yeah – that's why!
****No Patterson and No Guliani****
Come on Governor, buck up. You'll be fine after the President campaigns for you like he did Deeds in Virginia and Corzine in New Jersey. Oh, they lost? How could that happen with the Campaigner-In-Chief out stumping for them? What, his popularity numbers are dropping towards his policy approval poll numbers.
Quick, you've got to get people's minds off the economy, unemployment and the deficit! Can you try to pass a healthcare reform bill? Can you blame New York's problems on Bush or Cheney? Can you attach Sara Pallin? Can you make an overseas trip filled with photo ops with US troops? No, then you're screwed.
IT sucks to be a democrat! They will loose so many races in the upcoming elections.
He needs to 'see' the light and give up. He will be the next unemployed democrat governor.
He never even saw it coming...