(CNN) - A new poll released Monday afternoon indicates that Republican Scott Brown has a 7-point edge over Democrat Martha Coakley in Tuesday's special election in Massachusetts for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat.
According to an American Research Group survey, 52 percent of likely voters back Brown, a state senator, with 45 percent supporting Coakley, the state's attorney general. Meanwhile, 2 percent back Joseph Kennedy, a third party candidate who is not related to the late senator. The 7-point advantage for Brown is just within the poll's sampling error.
Brown had a 48 to 45 percent advantage in an ARG poll released over the weekend.
The survey indicates 97 percent of likely Republican voters are backing Brown, independent voters supporting him 64 to 32 percent over Coakley, and nearly one out of 4 Democrats also supporting Brown.
A Suffolk University poll released Thursday indicated Brown held a 4-point lead. Other recent partisan and non-partisan surveys suggested the race was a dead heat.
The American Research Group poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, with 600 Massachusetts residents likely to vote in Tuesday's election questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Also Monday the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report changed its prediction of the race from "toss up" to "lean Republican." Another well respected non-partisan political report, the Cook Political Report, has the race rated as a "toss up," but notes in its analysis of the race that "we put a finger on the scale for Brown."
-CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report
Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn
another poll from dailykos has coakely tied which nate silver confirmed and indicated she was begining to soar in the polls. as i said before, the polls are erratic. at the end the political machine will come out and vote coakely.
MA = Brown State !!
The bells are ringing for the freedom from the socialist agenda the left tried to impose upon us. The thugs are feeling the heat and seeing the future unfold before their eyes whether Brown wins or loses. I know they are threatening to pull a Franken style victory (an Impala with a lot of uncounted ballots) but no matter. The worst for them is yet to come.
This is a precusor to November 2010! Smell it Liberals!!! We are coming for you!!!!! God save this Republic and our Constitution!
Wow – 25% of democrats are supporting Brown.
We The People....have found our voices! All the ironies seen in this race. Do you think Washington is listening yet?
Now that will be "Change to Believe in", getting rid of the entrenched political party machines that have stangled this country far too long.
Wow– the winds of change are blowing... even in Massachusetts.
I'm really looking forward to all the Dem posts that will appear here in a few minutes, attacking CNN, screeching against polls, complaining that "no one polled me," claiming that polls are biased against presumably younger and more liberal cell phone users, etc.
Never thought I would team up with a Red Sox star (Curt Schilling)...but please do the right thing Mass. and vote Brown for Massachussetts and America's next Senator........besides, Coakley doesn't know a thing about baseball.
Go Brown, The BHO yesterday poked fun at Mr. Browns truck but I'd rather go riding in that Republican truck of his than a Democratic Oldsmobile. (and you all know which one I'm talking about)
I am an independent who voted for Obama. I am sick of the tax and spend policies of this administration. I will be supporting Brown and my family and friends in MA will to.
Wake up dems! Don't force a gigantic overhaul down our throats. We will vote you out and stop it anyway! If Brown is elected it doesn't kill health care reform, it forces Obama to do what he said he will do and reach across the aisle to make the best plan that serves all Americans the best. These statements about this election killing the bill expose the dems and Obama for not really changing the way we do politics, but the same garbage we have been practicing for some time now.
It amazes me that representatives don't understand that they should represent the people – not their agenda – this will hopefully be a wake-up call. Brown is right – this is not Ted's seat – this is the people's seat. Obama really did not help the situation by saying that chosing brown would put the voters off track. He doesn't understand that the current direction he is taking us is off track and the voters are the ones trying to put us back on track.
Mr.Brown, if you win (and I hope you do), DO NOT forget the people who will send sent you to Washington. You're job is to represent the PEOPLE FIRST and not party first! Both parties want power and BOTH parties forgot us when they got to DC. There has to be a change! Let it start with you, Mr.Brown!
What is happening in Mass. is a reflection of a change in voters all accross America. We are sick and tired of the lies and being ignored. As with everything there is a breaking point. Obama and the Dems have pushed the people to that point. The voters are not happy about the lies on transparency, the enormous increase in the deficits, the huge increases in spending, the lack of jobs created that the stimulus was promised to create, the Dems version of health care reform they do not want, a cap and trade bill passed by the House they did not want, TARP, auto bailouts, the list goes on. In 2006 and 2008 voters voted the Republicans out. Now they are just as or more unhappy with the Democrats. Voter party loyality is erroding. Independents and the Tea Party movement is growing. Dems will be voted out of power in 2010 and 2012. Republicnas will be voted out in 2014 and 2016 if they don't get it. The process will repeat until one party does. My guess is that the first party that does will be the one that passes term limits on the House and Senate.
How can you consider yourself a democrat if you do NOT support this health care reform? Are you mad? Health care needs reform, needs to open up coverage to those with pre-existing conditions; it needs a change for the better. I never thought the people of Mass. could be so out of touch with the people for it was the people that the late Senator got behind and he was for health care reform.
I'm just so disappointed in how people are being manipulated by the Republicans on this topic. So much so that it sickens me.
Ridiculous... these polls are BS
More and more people are waking up, paying attention and realizing that this healthcare bill is a really bad idea. Scott Brown is evidence of that.
There will be so many people forced onto medicare – which pays like a deadbeat dad – that doctors will be forced to shut down. The Mayo clinic just closed it's doors in one of its AZ offices.
My father is a doctor and said he will go into early retirement if this passes. No doubt thousands of other doctors will follow.
The Democrats would like you to believe that if Brown is elected, he will shift control of the Senate to the Republicans. Not true. It goes from 60-40 to 59-41. They still have an 18 vote lead. Maybe the Democrats need to wake up and LISTEN to the people of America who DO NOT WANT this Healthcare Bill shoved down their throats. This is why Brown is leading in the People's Republic of Massachusetts. The same poll that gave Brown a 48% – 46% lead last week indicated that 51% oppose Obamacara vs. 35% who are in favor of it. That is in the Bluest of Blue states. Democrats need to start listening to their constituents. Start over on Healthcare Reform. Do it out in the open and not behind closed doors. Do not give Labor Unions a 2 year tax exemption on the Healthcare bill (bet you didn't know that....behind closed door sweetheart deal for the Unions...wink wink)
When Coakley loses tomorrow, she has no one to blame but herself. She has run an awful campaign...completely out of touch with the people of Massachusetts and falsely attacking her opponents record. As for Healthcare Reform...Democrats have no one to blame but themselves. A 60-40 majority...a fillabuster-proof majority...for the past year and they couldn't get it done. Absolutely shameful.
Bad news here, in my opinion. "Remember Minnesota" will be the rallying cry when Coakley loses. Especially if it is "too close to call". Expect this to drag out. The Republicans first kicked that can in Minnesota!
Brown will win. Conservatives and independents, and even some right liberals, have seen enough. So have I. All of us that drank the koolaide and voted for Obama thinking his ideas could very well be bipartisan and help this country bounce back have been scammed. Change? Where? Is the sorry GWB still in office? He must be, because the "change" is GWB is STILL responsible for everything.
suffer you left wing losers.........................SUFFER
Three words: FIRE TIM KAINE
Just Great, then we can all go- backwards- to where we were..
Go get'em Brown. You got my vote from Democratic State of NY.
Democrats are bunch of loosers and liars. All they do is throw stone at whoever disagrees with them. The seniors will all vote for Brown. They are the smart ones. Obama is screwing them big time with eliminating Medicare Advantage Plans plus reducing the basic Medicare coverage. Premiums are going to go sky high for the seniors and the middle class. After Massachusetts gets rid of all their Democrats, we need to do the same in New York. Good luck to Massachusetts.