(CNN) - A new poll released Monday afternoon indicates that Republican Scott Brown has a 7-point edge over Democrat Martha Coakley in Tuesday's special election in Massachusetts for the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's seat.
According to an American Research Group survey, 52 percent of likely voters back Brown, a state senator, with 45 percent supporting Coakley, the state's attorney general. Meanwhile, 2 percent back Joseph Kennedy, a third party candidate who is not related to the late senator. The 7-point advantage for Brown is just within the poll's sampling error.
Brown had a 48 to 45 percent advantage in an ARG poll released over the weekend.
The survey indicates 97 percent of likely Republican voters are backing Brown, independent voters supporting him 64 to 32 percent over Coakley, and nearly one out of 4 Democrats also supporting Brown.
A Suffolk University poll released Thursday indicated Brown held a 4-point lead. Other recent partisan and non-partisan surveys suggested the race was a dead heat.
The American Research Group poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, with 600 Massachusetts residents likely to vote in Tuesday's election questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Also Monday the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report changed its prediction of the race from "toss up" to "lean Republican." Another well respected non-partisan political report, the Cook Political Report, has the race rated as a "toss up," but notes in its analysis of the race that "we put a finger on the scale for Brown."
-CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report
Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn
Beware of the fix if it's close. Recent history shows a recount will favor the democrat every time.
idiot libs like gary, julie (the native american), and opie and aunt be are going crazy because Brown is going to win. you are the reason why politics is so nasty.
keep playing the race card you loosers. you have less than one year of power to screw up the country.
President Obama, I think your so called "mandate" after last years election is about to be terminated beginning tomorrow!! I will gladly take gridlock over the governance that you have provided for the past year! GO Brown GO!!!!
Massachusetts has been historically liberal but when Brown proclaimed he does not support the proposed healthcare bill he went from more than 30 points down to a 7 point lead. This just goes to show that the general public does not want this health care bill.
If Brown wins, we are stuck with the current health insurance system. Republicans will simply filibuster the reform bill in Congress to death, while offering no realistic alternative. Their alternative, really, is the current system. How many people out there think the current system, in which 46 million people do not have insurance, and insurance premiums have more than doubled in 10 years, is worth keeping? According to a study by the non-partisan Commonwealth Fund, premiums are on course to increase another 94 percent by 2020, without reform. Anyone think that is a good idea, unless you work for insurance companies?
When extremists are shored up with very public comments such as those made by Ed Schultz (MSNBC), which suggest “cheating” to win an election is perfectly acceptable provided your own agenda is met, the American people will take notice. Not only is the credibility of MSNBC annihilated, but the candidate (not to mention the party) with whom this character aligns himself becomes suspect. Is this a sustainable mindset in which democracy and liberty can flourish? In any event, the American people are sick to death of the lies and sleight-of-hand that this administration has rammed down their throats, typically behind closed doors. Watch for a response in-kind from the people of this great nation.
Nice Spin Guys, go check Realclearpolitics for the latest polls All data is Brown between 4 and 11% . For those poll organizations that did polls on last week and are now posting new ones, the movement is 4-8 points away form Coakley.
This is a major issue because in a State like Mass, where only 20% are repubicans, and tons of $$$ spent by the liberals, how can Obama keep with the message that it is all this mis information corrupting peoples minds or the the tea party angry rednecks.
Mass voters are smart, informed, and instead of getting ready to do battle in 2012 on your wildly unpopular
hahahahah ohhhhhh I can almost hear the filthy liberals breathing in short sharp breaths!
Duh!!! No shock there!! The liberal dems do not represent america...and Mass voters may just now be waking up from the liberal nightmare of kennedy and kerry...the state disgusts me.....just like all of the ignorant obama voters. If he wins in the MOST liberal state in the U.S, look out....liberalism will die again till resurrected as people forget the failed logic of its GOVT CAN FIX EVERYTHING philosophy.
I'm a lifelong MA resident and Democrat and will proudly vote for Brown early tomorrow morning. Without at least two viable political parties our system of government doesn't exist.
And it will continue in November!!
Martha is no Kennedy. The folks who thought Obama stood for change
are angry and this is their way of showing it. Obama needs to show
a low profile with so many people out of work. Timing is important for
success. You don't hand illegal aliens work permits while there is
double digit unemployment or allow big bonuses for rich bankers.
His trip only reminds people he's something different from what he
Let me understand this correctly. Independents and some Democrats are willing to turn this seat over to the Rethuglicans and lose the entire, long fought battle for healthcare reform? How utterly disgusting! Do these people not remember that the Rethugs are solely responsible for this recession and economic disaster we find ourselves in? Also, this trillion dollar, never ending war in Iraq, that Bush and Cheney dragged us into could have paid for the entire healthcare overhaul!!! Senate minority leader and complete jerk, Mitch McConnell, was right when he said,"voters have a very short memory". This deplorable situation has been helped along by the tea bagger lies. SHAME, SHAME, SHAME.
All eyes are on Mass now! Either way it turns out, the message is resonating in Washington.
c'mon Brown, I'm routing for you and I'm not from Massachusetts and for all of you still blaming things on Bush, give it up, nobody is listening to you anymore. I'm not saying Obama should have everything straightend out by now, but he has only gotten the USA in worse trouble. Finanically, morally and every which way he can. The end is in sight and I can hardly wait, unless, and I do mean unless, he falls on his face before God and cries out to Him for this country things are going to get even worse.
I hope he does cry out to God for help because God is the only one that can help us now! No, Brown is not God and neither are you or me but change is not always good unless it comes from God, Himself.
Just as there are new polls showing low votes for Nelson there will be low votes for Brown AND Mass.
This vote is not just about Brown/Coakley but America and healthcare.
Mass will go down in history for killing healthcare reform. 49 other states are watching what Mass does. Does Mass vote for themselves because they already have healthcare or for everyone else.
For me if Mass votes for Brown I will use my vote, $$, and influence to not have anything go through Mass. specifically Boston.
The Red Sox will be red...red as in red coats and red as in communists!
Yeah, I'm a New Yorker but surely you folks in Massachusetts can see that Brown will do what's best for you the people. Do you want the added national health care cost that she so willingly will lay upon your backs? Vote for Brown; clearly he has your best interests in mind. Don't listen to the lies the Democrats are promoting.
There should be election observers at every voting site since we know Republicans will stoop to any level to get to what they want. We saw how they committed total fraud in Florida to get the moron George Bush elected President. What a coincidence that Bush's brother just happened to be the Gov of Florida then and the head of the Elections Board worked for the Bush family.
Bush was actually an invalid President and destroyed this nation through pure stupidity, lies, and 2 fraudulent wars that killed hundreds of thousands of innocent people and tens of thousands of American soldiers for a complete LIE. Bush took a surplus budget and left us with trillions of dollaris in debt – the rich richer, the poor poorer, and an economy on the verge of total and complete collapse.
We now have an INTELLIGENT President who is a good and decent man and an outstanding leader. He is the People's President who has done nothing but work to help restore America for ALL Americans. He is no friend to the corrupt banks, insurance companies, and large corporations. He is working to get all the BUSH bailout money back, has new bank regulations ready to go, and high taxes for the banks to punish them for lying to Congress about what they would do with bailout money. President Obama is doing everything for US.
Republicans have done NOTHING this entire year for the People. They have taken bribes from the banks, insurance companies, and corporations to buy their NO vote so they can continue to abuse workers, send jobs overseas, and let people die because insurance companies don't honor the policies they sold us..
If you want America to fail and be a state of total destruction like it was under Bush – vote for the lying, hate-spewing, racist Republicans and we can go backwards once again.
If you want America to recover, prosper, and the PEOPLE to matter more than greedy corporations then we needs MORE Democrats in Congress to keep moving America forward and keep up safe.
The only terrorist you should fear are the domestic ones – Republicans, tea baggers, birthers, and the right wing lunatic fringe who are ignorant and racist to the core. Limbaugh, Beck and the other FOX liars are encouraging hate and violence in our country. We need to shut these traitiors down and take back America to the real values we all cherish.
Come on MA- get out and vote for Coakley so we can protect the future of America.
Back to the Bush-Cheney years.
With Carl Rove and John Mcain on the ground what do you expect? Please Mass,save this country by not voting with this gridlock Republican machine. We need progress and not NO NO NO just to serve narrow party ideology proved to be wrong. We need to get out of this mess by empowering the middle class not same corporate gread. Vote Democrat.
Why no mention of the research 2000 poll also released today which shows a tie at 48-48
I AM SO HAPPY WITH THE WAY PEOPLE ARE THINKING. I WAS ABOUT TO LOOSE MY CONFIDENCE IN THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. IN THE LAST ELECTION I FELT LIKE I LIVED ON ANOTHER PLANET. I TRULY FELT THAT OBAMA WAS OUT OF HIS LEAGUE. NOW I KNOW HE WAS. HE HIS NOT PROTECTING MY VALUES OR THOSE OF OTHER TRULY HARD WORKING, LAW ABIDING CITIZENS. EVEN IF BROWN DOES NOT WIN TUESDAY IN MASS. THE ELECTION WILL BE SO CLOSE THAT IT WILL SEND A MESSAGE TO WASHINGTON THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE PAYING ATTENTION AND WE DO VOTE AND WE DO CARE.
If Brown wins, you will then be looking at a one term president.
oh man, I sure hope Brown wins this one, in the most liberal state in the union. My birthday was yesterday but it feels like Christmas tomorrow! Take that Owebama! WOoOOoOOOoO!
I say we do away with medicare and veterans benefits for five years and then start a fresh debate on health care. No free rides for anybody. Every elderly, indigent, patriot for themselves!!