Washington (CNN) - Nearly half of all Americans think President Barack Obama does not deserve re-election in 2012, according to a new national poll.
A Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday indicates that 48 percent of the public thinks Obama doesn't deserve a second term in office, with four in ten saying he does deserve to be re-elected. By a 52 to 34 percent margin, Independent voters say the president doesn't deserve re-election.
Thirty-six percent of people questioned in the poll say they'd vote for Obama if the next presidential election were held today, with 39 percent saying they'd cast their ballot for the Republican candidate. Thirteen percent say their vote depends on which Republican would be facing off against Obama and 12 percent say they are undecided. By a 37 to 27 percent advantage, Independents say they'd vote for the Republican candidate.
"In politics, a month is a lifetime and we have 28 months until November of 2012. But politicians with re-elect numbers at 40 percent bear watching," says Quinnipiac University Polling Institute assistant director Peter Brown.
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted July 13-19, with 2,181 registered voters nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.1 percentage points.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted in late March indicated that Americans were divided whether they'd vote for Obama or an unnamed GOP contender.
Surveys taken more than two years out are not always a great indicator of what will happen down the road.
"Keep in mind that only 38 percent thought that Bill Clinton deserved re-election in 1994, but he went on to win a second term," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "And just a year before the 1992 election, 57 percent thought that the elder George Bush deserved to be re-elected, but he lost his bid for another four years in the White House."