July 26th, 2010
11:47 AM ET
4 years ago

Poll: Obama not helping Carnahan in Missouri?

A new poll shows Republican Rep. Roy Blunt (left) leading Democrat Robin Carnahan by six points in the battle for Missouri’s open Senate seat.
A new poll shows Republican Rep. Roy Blunt (left) leading Democrat Robin Carnahan by six points in the battle for Missouri’s open Senate seat.

(CNN) – A new poll in Missouri provides more evidence that President Barack Obama and his administration's agenda are hurting more than helping Democratic candidates running in moderate to conservative states in this year's midterm elections.

The president's approval rating stands at 34 percent in Missouri, according to a new Mason-Dixon survey conducted for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV, with 57 percent saying they disapprove of the job Obama's doing in the White House.

The poll, released over the weekend, also indicates that in the battle for Missouri's vacant Senate seat, seven-term Republican Rep. Roy Blunt leads Democratic Secretary of State Robin Carnahan 48 percent to 42 percent, with one in ten likely voters undecided.

Carnahan and Blunt are both expected to easily win their party primary contests, held in eight days. They would then face off in a battle that pits two of the most famous political families in the state against each other. Both candidates are fighting to succeed Republican Sen. Kit Bond, who is not running for re-election this year. The race is one of the few where the Democrats have a chance to pick up a GOP held seat.

Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, told the Post-Dispatch that Obama's unpopularity in Missouri was a key reason Blunt was faring better in the Senate battle.

The president visited Missouri earlier this month, for an event on the economy and to headline a fundraiser for Carnahan. It was Obama's fourth trip to Missouri since he narrowly lost the state - by less than 4,000 votes - in the 2008 presidential election to Sen. John McCain.

In March, Republicans pounced on Carnahan when she didn't attend an Obama fundraiser for Sen. Claire McCaskill and a health care reform event in her state, saying she was trying to keep her distance from the president. Carnahan's campaign said she was in the Washington, DC for a conference as part of her duties as secretary of state. Carnahan did team up with Obama when he came back to Missouri a month later to hold an event on the economy.

"He helps with fundraising and, possibly, with turnout, but the single most important reason why Democratic candidates in Democratic and swing states - Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Washington and even Illinois - are in trouble is President Obama, and his agenda," says Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report.

The Mason Dixon poll was conducted July 19-21, with 625 likely voters in Missouri questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

–Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn


Filed under: 2010 • Missouri • Polls • President Obama • Robin Carnahan • Roy Blunt
soundoff (39 Responses)
  1. awaitingliberalizationbyCNN

    Have to laugh at Dennis@ and his Kool Aid like comments. The libs only spend to inflate teachers salaries and impress the unions that own that ethically corrupt and morally bankrupt party. The smary, elitism that they think justifies their thefts of hard working taxpayer money oozes from his commnets. At least he did not play the race card like so many of these losers are.

    July 26, 2010 02:06 pm at 2:06 pm |
  2. ASMA

    With 4% error, that mean it is tight (one possible way is for adding 4 to the low number and subtracting 4 from the higher number to end up with the opposite results)... Spin machine trying to misread statistics... How smart is the people who did the survey and stats? Besides, the sample number is low and the phone method is always biased by the fact that the ones who tend to respond are the ones kept in the list to call every time... Clearly someone needs to go back to school and learn the basics!

    July 26, 2010 02:11 pm at 2:11 pm |
  3. GL

    Keep believe these polls Republicans.

    July 26, 2010 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  4. Deborah/KansasCity

    Doug, I bet anything you are not from Missouri. Typical hateful person response. Nothing that President Obama has done, or will do, to rebalance America, putting the workers and the average people first; over the Corporations and the uber wealthy, would be good enough. You are a hater and it shows very plain in your comments. Come take a look at the roadside signs, listen to how many lies are told, and how much hatred is encouraged as a policial position. Republicans have no answers except to "go back to how it was". Yeah, when we were lied to and taken into illegal wars, when torture was ecnouraged as a policy, when jobs were being lost at 700,000 a month, when only the wealthy could live and prosper. I thank God that we do not have John McCain and Sarah Palin in office. God bless President Obama and the policies to help the middle class, finally. The America that I knew and grew up with was almost gone, replaceed by hatred, lies and bigotry. Now, if we can just elect more Democrats, our country will be saved and we can all have a chance at the American Dream once again. As soon as a Repbulican gets back in, America will be at war on multiple fronts, we would already be at war with Iran,, on top of the 2 wars Bush started. That is what Republicans think the middle class is good for, fodder for their wars.

    July 26, 2010 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  5. GL

    And the Tea Baggers will hurt the Repubicans party even worst. They are losing more seats in the area where they could win seats. So we will all see in Nov. The seat the Republicans where hoping to pick up do no look likly.

    July 26, 2010 02:14 pm at 2:14 pm |
  6. JT from MO

    doug July 26th, 2010 11:51 am ET

    "The people of Missouri are good hearted, honest, fair, responsible people who are selfless not selfish. A lib marxist like Obama's help will result in defeat.

    Your typical Democrat, Obama showed it, giving an ipod as a gift that is loaded up with his own speeches.

    Check Jersey Shore too, this is the Democrat.
    -------------------------

    Doug, I agree with your first statement; Missouri is a great state full of great people and great, healthy farmland. Missouri is the state that produced Mark Twain and "Give 'em Hell" Harry Truman. However, I find issue with the rest of what the rest of your comment says. Your statement about President Obama being a "Lib Marxist" is not quite correct, at all. Let me give you the definition of Liberal and Marxist.

    Liberalism: That is a term that defines the belief in the importance of liberty and equality. Liberals espouse a wide array of views depending on their understanding of these principles, but most liberals support such fundamental ideas as constitutions, liberal democracy, free and fair elections, human rights, capitalism, free trade, and the separation of church and state.

    Marxism: is a particular political philosophy, economic and sociological worldview based upon a materialist interpretation of history, a Marxist analysis of capitalism, a theory of social change.

    Let me give you some facts from just the past year and a half, about President Obama's policies.

    1. His healthcare idea was just a extention of Private Insurance, with a some more rules for the Insurance companies to follow. His progressive base wished he'd go further than that, but he did not; his healthcare plan leaned just ever so left of center.

    2. His energy ideas include investments in Natural Gas, Nuclear Energy, Clean-Coal, and Regulated Oil Drilling; that's something his progressive base did not agree with him, either. His energy idea includes a lot of ideas of which conservatives have come up with.

    3. His Immigration plan does include an easier pathway to citizenship, but it's far from true amnesty. His plans include to put troops on our borders to protect us, which was a Republican idea. By the way, Arnold Schwarzenegger did the same thing with Immigration, not too long ago. He's a center-right Republican.

    So, in conclusion, your assumption that he was a "lib marxist" was not accurate. I'm sure you're a great person, personally, and I will not personally attack you; that's only for children, in mental maturity. I'm a person who believes in looking at logic, facts, and history to support whatever argument or point I'm trying to get across. In whatever agrument or point anyone makes, liberal or conservative, it is important that you make out your argument, logically.

    Ask a question, observe the situation, formulate a hypothesis, perform an experiment, analyze the data, form a conclusion/solution, and communicate the results; the Scientific Method. Science is a great subject that allows you to look at new viewponts; I personally see the Theory of Evolution and the Big Bang Theory as the most logical ways of how we came about. Whatever point anyone tries to get across, use logic, facts, and actual, true history to support your argument, whether it be liberal or conservative.

    July 26, 2010 02:17 pm at 2:17 pm |
  7. Dave L

    The good people of MO, or at least the 48% leaning to the Republican in this poll, bring back the wisdom of H.L. Mencken: "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard" That's what the Fox News sheep will get if they bring back the government of the corporations, by the corporations and for the corporations (with occasional nods to fundamentalist religious bigots). Unfortunately, the rest of us would get that too.

    July 26, 2010 02:25 pm at 2:25 pm |
  8. GL

    Republican Rep. Zach Wamp of Tennessee wants to make one thing clear: If elected governor, the Volunteer State will remain part of the United States.

    Wamp's comments came a day after he appeared to suggest to Hotline OnCall that mandates forced on the states by the Obama administration's health care bill have put secession on the table.

    "-----------------------------------–

    Conservative firebrand Tom Tancredo will run for governor of Colorado despite strident objections from the state GOP, the former congressman is set to announce later Monday.
    -------------------------------------–

    The Denver Post and 9News reported Sunday that GOP Senate hopeful Ken Buck was caught on tape saying "will you tell those dumbasses at the Tea Party to stop asking questions about birth certificates while I'm on camera."

    The Republicans party is running people like the three above and you want the Dems to be scare about this race. The Republicans paty is the one that needs to be scare since their party have been hyjacked by the far right wing nuts.

    July 26, 2010 02:26 pm at 2:26 pm |
  9. Anonymous

    Missouri wants to go back to the Bush policies.....I guess they love misery.

    July 26, 2010 02:28 pm at 2:28 pm |
  10. ST

    For god's sake the President will not be in the ballot anywhere come Nov. Lose or win will depend on the own efforts the candidate makes, and not on the visit the President made 4 months before Nov.

    July 26, 2010 02:29 pm at 2:29 pm |
  11. janetlaw

    Dennis –
    That was the Republicans plan all along – keep'em ignorant and they will be like sheep, following the latest group-think coming out of Fox News.

    July 26, 2010 02:35 pm at 2:35 pm |
  12. Carrotroot

    Being down 6 points in a Red State is pretty good for the Democrat, it's not an insurmountable number, and with 4 months until the election the Dems should use the time to focus on voter's issues not on protecting Obama's legacy.

    July 26, 2010 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  13. carlos

    blunt.....7 terms in congress, that should disqualify him from any run for office according to the tea tards, besides, he was a complete failure as a rep.......now,I really do not see the people in Missouri electing a repulsive repugnant...

    July 26, 2010 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  14. obama victim

    what part of New Jersey, Virginina, Massachusettes, and now Missouri ,do the left wing crazies not get??

    July 26, 2010 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
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