September 2nd, 2010
10:00 AM ET
4 years ago

New prediction in battle for the House

A new forecast predicts Republicans will pick up 47 House seats.
A new forecast predicts Republicans will pick up 47 House seats.

Washington (CNN) – It's the biggest guessing game in this town: Will the Republicans pick up enough House seats in November's midterm elections to win back control of the chamber?

A new forecast out Thursday says yes. University of Virginia political handicapper Larry Sabato estimates that Republicans will pick up 47 House seats in November, eight more than the 39 seats the GOP needs to reclaim the House.

TIME.com: How Barack Obama Became Mr. Unpopular

"2010 was always going to be a Republican year," writes Sabato, "but conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd."

Two of the best known non-partisan political handicappers in the nation's capitol also point towards major gains by the Republicans. The Cook Political Report forecasts a net gain of 35 to 45 seats by Republicans, "with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome."

CNN Radio Political Notebook:

And the Rothenberg Political Report estimates "GOP gains of 28-33 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats are quite possible."

There are 61 days left till the midterms. Stay tuned!

Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn


Filed under: 2010
soundoff (125 Responses)
  1. doug

    Most Americans have good in their hearts, that makes voting Democrat against their interests.

    Imagine if this Lee guy was inspired by Rush Limbaugh rather than Al Gore?

    The hate today's libs have for everyone who thinks differently than they do make them more intolerant than even their granfathers, the Dixiecrats.

    A lot of Democrats agree with Lee and are showing their support for his message, we all know that if he were a Republican, not a single Republican would ever show support for such a sick person.

    September 2, 2010 10:06 am at 10:06 am |
  2. NYC REPUB

    GO DEMS........It's Not Over Yet.......There is going to be a rally between now and November.....the job market is about to improve.

    September 2, 2010 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
  3. diridi

    these polls are nothing but whether forecast....they say, it rains, it never...o.k, so do not spoil your brain with all these redundant fool-poll numbers....just vote for any Democrat....

    September 2, 2010 10:08 am at 10:08 am |
  4. Eric

    No no, democrats aren't in trouble. No really... just keep on doing what you're doing. Keep on Blaming Bush!

    Make sure you keep repeating how anyone who disagrees with democrat policies is racist and bigoted. Be sure you keep alienating independents who are turning their backs on your policies, too. Yeah yeah, because anyone who disagrees with democrat ideas must be a bigot, right?

    I'm dying to see how this works out!

    September 2, 2010 10:09 am at 10:09 am |
  5. awaitingliberalizationbyCNN

    Wonderful news. Republicans won't win a phony Nobel Peace Prize, but they will stop this inept, incompetent, union toady president. All of you liberals who like to blame the Republicans, remember you have had the majority in both houses of Congress and the Presidency for 2 years and things have gotten worse. The only good thing that has happened is the the Iraq pullout and that was made possible by Bush before Hussein even took office.

    September 2, 2010 10:12 am at 10:12 am |
  6. Death Panel Sarah

    Baloney.....there can't be that many STUPID people in America!!!!

    September 2, 2010 10:13 am at 10:13 am |
  7. Steve in Denver

    I'd sure like to see the Democrats keep control. On the other hand, if Republicans do win the house, it will be nice to see them have the responsibility to actually create policy, rather than just say no.

    With the current neocon tone, and what prominent republicans have said, I think we'd see two years of nothing but investigations into an administration that, by comparison, is much cleaner than most.

    Let's see the Republicans have to actually turn the economy around. I'm sure if they won, November 2 would be the last day any republican talked about the deficit. Extending the bush tax cuts would be job 1, at the cost of 3.3 trillion dollars. Cut spending? More unemployment.

    September 2, 2010 10:13 am at 10:13 am |
  8. Steve

    I can't wait to see Harry Reid in the unemployment line and Nancy Pelosi pushing a mop!!!! LOL

    September 2, 2010 10:16 am at 10:16 am |
  9. Clwyd

    God I hope and pray we won't be back in the hands of the Devils who created our financial and economic meltdown! Could Americans forget so fast?

    September 2, 2010 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  10. get real

    Maybe then John Boner would actually have to do something other than get a tan and say no.

    September 2, 2010 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  11. Toni - Atlanta

    Conditions have deteriorated because the Republicans have chosen to be on the sides of Wall Street and big business. But watch out, there's going to be a new surge of energy with the Democrats AND Independents over the next 9 weeks. The voters are a lot smarter than you may think. There is no way the voters are going to allow the United States to be hijacked by the candidates who want to drive this country backwards.

    September 2, 2010 10:18 am at 10:18 am |
  12. Joe from CT, not Lieberman

    If the Democrats can't get off their collective butts, and start telling the American people all they have accomplished and how much that they tried to do has been blocked by the NO party, I can see the Republicans winning. Right now, every Democrat is shaking like a leaf because they can't figure out how to promote themselves and their agenda allowing their Republican opponents to set the tone for the campaigns.

    September 2, 2010 10:18 am at 10:18 am |
  13. Mary Dale

    I cannot believe for the life of me that American voters will go to the polls this November and vote in the same party that caused all the problems we are now experiencing. The republicans have NO ideas, they just say NO. They only represent big business and play word games with the under-intelligent about social issues to get them to vote with them. If only the media was a little more interested in the truth rather than printing the one-liners with no backup that the republicans use. I wont believe it until i see it.

    September 2, 2010 10:18 am at 10:18 am |
  14. Scott in Atlanta

    Think maybe we could actually vote before you start saying who's gonna be doing what in 2010/2012?

    September 2, 2010 10:19 am at 10:19 am |
  15. charlie from the North

    More to fear from this prediction than the hurricane. Hopefully this news will get the"lazy libs" off their butts to vote. 27% of the electorate thinks GW Bush dd a great job, Obama is a muslim,global warming is a hoax and the world is flat. They are wrong of course, but they vote. If only half the people vote their 27% will be a majority of those voting. Raise it to 60% and they are in the minority where they should be. So if you are aware enough to be reading this get out and vote and bring two of your friends with you to the polls.

    September 2, 2010 10:20 am at 10:20 am |
  16. Ben Ben

    So once the Repulsivecans regain control, what is their great plan to help this country? Running on "get rid of the black guy in 2012" wont mean much when they control the purse strings and drive this country into a depression.

    September 2, 2010 10:20 am at 10:20 am |
  17. James

    Well, the Republicans have been allowed to define Obama just the way they wanted to so now we will find out just how empty their basket really is. They will not be able to blame the democrats anymore, and they will finally have to show their hand in this game of "no" they have been playing. Don't expect any windfalls any time soon. Expect massive lay offs, broken banks, and unemployment compensation to be dissolved. Gm and chysler will be gone, gasoline will go through the roof and inflation will be at a record high. Taxes will go up and health care for other than the rich will be gone. Palin and Rush limbaugh will be dancing in the strees, along with Glenn Beck and his marry band of Fox news hounds. The American people are about to shoot themselves in the foot yet again.

    September 2, 2010 10:22 am at 10:22 am |
  18. ToGetherWeStand

    It is still a competitive year. I see gains for the GOP, but I still do not see a take over of either the House or the Senate.

    It simply amazes me that we Americans have such short memories and fail to recognize strategy of obstructionism and inaction which the GOP employed in the past foru years.

    September 2, 2010 10:23 am at 10:23 am |
  19. matt

    This means we can finally stop destroying the country and stop all the handouts. Maybe people can start taking control and responsibility of their own lives and away from the government. What will the base of the democratic party do then?

    September 2, 2010 10:23 am at 10:23 am |
  20. Nelson

    If Obama would make drastic changes before November the Dem's would get a bouce but that does not match up with his populist rhetoric. Obama and the drunken Congress are going to have to seem serious about reduced spending, entitlements and no tax hikes or they can kiss it goodbye. People want to work and businessses are not going to starting spending until economic policy changes.

    September 2, 2010 10:24 am at 10:24 am |
  21. flapjack

    Let the Republicans reign in the House.

    September 2, 2010 10:24 am at 10:24 am |
  22. Justin

    As a loyal but moderate liberal, I have to say, it might be best if the Dems lose one chamber. It will mean the GOP can no longer just point fingers, but it will also mean they can't advance their radical right-wing agenda or go on a witch hunt – and from 1995 – 2007, they were always doing one, the other, or both. Dems on the other hand will have to move more toward the center, at least fiscally, which is something we desperately need to do.

    September 2, 2010 10:24 am at 10:24 am |
  23. Really?

    Wow nothing on CNN about the liberal environmentalists terrorist nut job that held the Discovery Channel office hostage with bombs. Gee u think if it were a conservative, tea party member that did this we would see the coverage today or would there be 24hr new blitz story on the MSM liberal media with Michael Bloomberg & DHS coming out say "see we warned u about the conservatives".

    How about the fact he became "radicalize" by Al Gore's lies? (crickets chirping).

    What about John Cusak's statement about death to an entire news station & conservatives. I guess freedom of speech only works for liberals.

    Yeah, it's conservatives that are violent.

    September 2, 2010 10:24 am at 10:24 am |
  24. blancheispoison

    Lqarry Sabato is invited on CNN to be a Republican voice on election night. How about some full disclosure CNN? You hire the guy to speak as a Republican & now you try to make him out to be an unaffiliated pollster? That's baloney!

    September 2, 2010 10:26 am at 10:26 am |
  25. JR

    It seems like the November election will be cancelled because the GOP has already picked up 70 seats. So, all the campaigns need to stop because we already have the outcome.

    September 2, 2010 10:26 am at 10:26 am |
1 2 3 4 5