September 2nd, 2010
10:00 AM ET
4 years ago

New prediction in battle for the House

A new forecast predicts Republicans will pick up 47 House seats.
A new forecast predicts Republicans will pick up 47 House seats.

Washington (CNN) – It's the biggest guessing game in this town: Will the Republicans pick up enough House seats in November's midterm elections to win back control of the chamber?

A new forecast out Thursday says yes. University of Virginia political handicapper Larry Sabato estimates that Republicans will pick up 47 House seats in November, eight more than the 39 seats the GOP needs to reclaim the House.

TIME.com: How Barack Obama Became Mr. Unpopular

"2010 was always going to be a Republican year," writes Sabato, "but conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd."

Two of the best known non-partisan political handicappers in the nation's capitol also point towards major gains by the Republicans. The Cook Political Report forecasts a net gain of 35 to 45 seats by Republicans, "with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome."

CNN Radio Political Notebook:


And the Rothenberg Political Report estimates "GOP gains of 28-33 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats are quite possible."

There are 61 days left till the midterms. Stay tuned!

Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn


Filed under: 2010
soundoff (125 Responses)
  1. Scott in Atlanta

    Dems, you're not going to vote. You're not excited about the mid terms. You're dissillusioned and not driven. No one is saying a Democrat can win. You have nothing to be excited about. There's really no reason for you to even vote. I mean, why? According to the pundits, it's already decided eh...

    September 2, 2010 10:47 am at 10:47 am |
  2. Scott in Atlanta

    Republicans are counting chickens, and the eggs haven't even hatched yet.

    September 2, 2010 10:48 am at 10:48 am |
  3. gt

    rotten..this country is heading for a major disaster... thanks.. nancy and harry ,,,, what a monster mess you have gotten this country in,,ugh

    September 2, 2010 10:48 am at 10:48 am |
  4. Scott in Atlanta

    Republicans are acting like the fat lady has sung... But the Opera hasn't even come to town yet.

    September 2, 2010 10:49 am at 10:49 am |
  5. Tom from Ohio

    Remember the FEAR! The run up to the invasion of Iraq featured the Bush administration invoking every frightening image they could conjure, mushroom clouds, battle scenes, drones ready to deliver germ laden death in our major cities!
    If the Republicans had a solution for the problems of today THEY WOULDN’T NEED TO USE FEAR to ‘trick’ voters.
    Vote this party down once and for all and let’s try to get America back on track.

    September 2, 2010 10:49 am at 10:49 am |
  6. RICKFROMPA

    Our Nation will be in "deep trouble" if the Republicans gain control of the House headed by John Boehner. Any economic growth will come to a complete standstill and the "Rich" and "Wall Street" will again be rewarded just as they were during the Bush Administration (which lead us into the financial mess that we are currently in). I only wish that the Diehard Republican Voters can only see what they are about to get us into!

    September 2, 2010 10:50 am at 10:50 am |
  7. Future expat

    EXCELLENT! We get to see Boehner's utter incompetence in full display for all to see.

    September 2, 2010 10:50 am at 10:50 am |
  8. Lisa P

    It may be a good year for generic Republicans (or, really, "Not Democrats" - the Republican brand itself is tarnished and they haven't done anything to polish it up in the last two years, just said "No") but when you look at the actual candidates they're fielding it ranges from inexperienced to outright crazy.

    I think that when it comes down to the voting booth contest by contest the Republicans will do worse than predicted because they just don't seem to be able to govern. Who wants the foul-mouthed mailroom assistant on the Board of Directors? Only people with no common sense. Americans are better than that.

    That said, a lot can change by November especially with the 24/7 news cycle and viral media. "Democrat" may look very appealing on Nov. 2 in ways that no poll can predict.

    September 2, 2010 10:51 am at 10:51 am |
  9. GI Joe

    Might be for the best.

    Once the republicans are in charge and continue to do nothing for the real people, but continue to cut taxes for their wealthy friends, maybe some of the impatient and unemployed will finally get the truth smacked in their faces and wallets.

    I'll still vote democrat straight down the ticket because where I live, the republicans only line their own pockets and stall hiring to influence the least intelligent among us.

    September 2, 2010 10:51 am at 10:51 am |
  10. John

    The economy is down right now it because of the republican got it that way,and now won't help too try and help Omana too get it better. The American people can't be that dumb and vote republican too the house seats if they are not going too do anything but say NO all the time. VOTE NO FOR THE PARTY OF NO.

    September 2, 2010 10:51 am at 10:51 am |
  11. GOP Hate America

    Yes it makes perfect sense. Lets give power back to the people that caused the mess.

    September 2, 2010 10:52 am at 10:52 am |
  12. GI Joe

    If EVERY American has a job at the end of the two year term of some of those people, I'll be very surprised.

    September 2, 2010 10:52 am at 10:52 am |
  13. Henry Miller, Libertarian

    Mr Sabato also points out in his comments that it's not that people like the GOP more than they like the Dems. Quite the reverse. But it's apparent that people are basically afraid of the Dems and their irresponsible eagerness to waste trillions of dollars we don't have.

    People don't much like, these days, the GOP warmongering and self-righteous bible-thumping, and still don't trust them much after the Bush-era spend-like-a-Democrat profligacy, but given a choice of the certainty of more economic ruin by the Dems versus just the chance of more economic ruin by the GOP, they're holding their noses and voting GOP.

    September 2, 2010 10:53 am at 10:53 am |
  14. Grundoon

    I'll believe it when I see it. The republicans are offering nothing but a return to policies that have not failed just once but repeatedly. They are insane. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and over again and expecting a different result.

    September 2, 2010 10:53 am at 10:53 am |
  15. Alan

    Let's hope and pray this fellow knows what he's talking about. I know the Repubs aren't perfect, but something has to be done to stop the debacle that is going on now.

    September 2, 2010 10:53 am at 10:53 am |
  16. JOhn

    Wolf wolf wolf. Smae song and dance from the same people that have lied to this country fo rthe past 15 years. No amnesty for republicans. We all know how we got here, no matter how they try to lie there way out of it.

    September 2, 2010 10:53 am at 10:53 am |
  17. Fair is Fair

    But veteran political handicapper of the CNN political ticker blogs Dutch from Bad Newz says the democrats are going to increase their majorities. Didn't these guys get the memo?

    September 2, 2010 10:54 am at 10:54 am |
  18. repubs need education

    I'm moving to Canada

    September 2, 2010 10:54 am at 10:54 am |
  19. Chalupa

    It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. Republicans have to be careful they aren't Mike Tyson before the Buster Douglas fight and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory..

    September 2, 2010 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  20. No-sense makes nonsense

    The scary part to me is that the fundamentalist Christian right does not understand that we have a Constitution that separates Church from State. While they have the right to practice their faith they do not have the right to bring their faith into their elected office and impose it on me.

    We need to require all elected officials to pledge to uphold that separation or else America is going to be a less tolerant and free society.

    BTW ... America was based on the principles of Enlightenment and many of the founding fathers were Masons.

    While people came to America to practice their type of faith freely because elsewhere Church and State were married, the founding fathers were strong believers of personal freedoms ... not religious fundamentalism. We are not a christian country. We are a free country

    September 2, 2010 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  21. nature shot

    I can say with all honesty they deserve every lost seat possible. They complain that the Republicans drove the car in the ditch,but the facts are that they (the Democrats) buried the car in the ditch. Covered it with brush and set the dam thing on fire. Again they deserve all the scorn and loss they get.

    September 2, 2010 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  22. Ohioan with no Job

    Thanks HARRY and NANCY,, now get lost !!

    September 2, 2010 10:58 am at 10:58 am |
  23. vic

    Republicans will not win the house they had chance in April now it’s changed
    Conservative democrats more chances to win than republicans

    September 2, 2010 11:00 am at 11:00 am |
  24. jackson

    And what no one is saying, without a filibuster proof majority, and a Democrat in the White House, their majority will mean nothing. It will be Gore and Gingrich versus Clinton all over again.

    Oh the fun *that* would be..............................not.

    You think things are bad now? Wait until the standstill you get if that happens. Things will only get worse.

    September 2, 2010 11:00 am at 11:00 am |
  25. charles hawkins

    Why not just vote every one of them out for a fresh start? What we need are common people with common sense. get rid of the elitests in D.C.

    September 2, 2010 11:01 am at 11:01 am |
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