September 2nd, 2010
10:00 AM ET
4 years ago

New prediction in battle for the House

A new forecast predicts Republicans will pick up 47 House seats.
A new forecast predicts Republicans will pick up 47 House seats.

Washington (CNN) – It's the biggest guessing game in this town: Will the Republicans pick up enough House seats in November's midterm elections to win back control of the chamber?

A new forecast out Thursday says yes. University of Virginia political handicapper Larry Sabato estimates that Republicans will pick up 47 House seats in November, eight more than the 39 seats the GOP needs to reclaim the House.

TIME.com: How Barack Obama Became Mr. Unpopular

"2010 was always going to be a Republican year," writes Sabato, "but conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd."

Two of the best known non-partisan political handicappers in the nation's capitol also point towards major gains by the Republicans. The Cook Political Report forecasts a net gain of 35 to 45 seats by Republicans, "with the odds of an outcome larger than that range greater than the odds of a lesser outcome."

CNN Radio Political Notebook:

And the Rothenberg Political Report estimates "GOP gains of 28-33 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats are quite possible."

There are 61 days left till the midterms. Stay tuned!

Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn


Filed under: 2010
soundoff (125 Responses)
  1. Pat

    November can't get here soon enough. Let's clean house!

    September 2, 2010 11:01 am at 11:01 am |
  2. Unbelievable...

    If you earn less money than the wealthiest 2% of all Americans & you vote for a republican, you are officially voting against your better interests!

    Wake up, America! You are about to get fleeced!

    September 2, 2010 11:02 am at 11:02 am |
  3. jim

    I doubt this prediction will come true because dems have seen the disasterous effects of Obama economic policies and have positioned themselves to run against those same things.They will say they are moderates or whatever and run against Washinton insiders and say they are not part of that ilk .Enough voters will fall for this crap to keep dems losses at a minimun.

    September 2, 2010 11:02 am at 11:02 am |
  4. Dan

    LOL are these the same polls for middle age and senior citizens? Where are the polls for young people, and if the US people are dumb enough to put back the people that got us in this mess. We deserve everything thats coming to us. But of course the last 8 years was Clinton fault right?

    September 2, 2010 11:04 am at 11:04 am |
  5. RH

    None of this matters – it's just a question of whose agenda gets stonewalled. The GOP should've realized when Obama was elected that it was in their best interest to take issue but play nice. If you think the Republicans have been obstructionist for the last year and a half, just wait until you see how the Democrats carry themselves if the GOP retakes one or both houses in the fall. In the long term, all of this hyperpartisanship only hurts the American people.

    September 2, 2010 11:04 am at 11:04 am |
  6. Tea-bag Nihilist

    November's election will tell us one thing above all else: will right-wing generated ignorance and paranoia win out over rational thought? If it does we as a country will have forfeited the capacity to govern ourselves, pure and simple.

    September 2, 2010 11:04 am at 11:04 am |
  7. Gary

    I'll believe it when it happens.

    September 2, 2010 11:04 am at 11:04 am |
  8. Anne, Florida

    Every day some organization comes out with a new poll. Personally, I have never ever been polled. If these organizations are routing for the GOP, in my opinion their polls will do more to energize the Dems to vote and keep from going back to the past.

    September 2, 2010 11:05 am at 11:05 am |
  9. gate

    And you thought Congress was useless before, just wait!

    September 2, 2010 11:05 am at 11:05 am |
  10. Dave

    Will Americans reward the GOP for failure from 1994-2008? Fox Terror Channel will make sure half the population is lied to so thoroughly they now think ALL of our problems happened just in the past two years. And when they screw up again it will be Obama's fault. Let the stupid rule the roost.

    September 2, 2010 11:07 am at 11:07 am |
  11. Julnor

    If this happens then there will be gridlock in DC and the country will be safe from Obama's overactive federal govt.

    September 2, 2010 11:08 am at 11:08 am |
  12. Sniffit

    WHERE ARE THE ARTICLES ABOUT THE GOP LITERALLY THREATENING TO SHUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT BY ATTEMPTING TO DEFUND EVERYTHING AND FORCE A VETO OF AN APPROPRIATIONS BILL THAT WOULD BREAK THE GOV'T?

    They have literally said this is their plan if they win. Miller, Erickson, Boehner, Cantor and countless others are dancing a jog at the opportunity to attempt to even the score on 1995-1996 when they tried the same thing and lost to Clinton. Hundreds of thousands of furloughed government employees (that means NO PAY AT ALL), stoppage of Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security checks, no grants, no farm aid, NO NOTHING.

    WHERE ARE THE ARTICLES?

    September 2, 2010 11:13 am at 11:13 am |
  13. Brian

    I wonder if the fact that any controversial prognosis will guarantee them a headline on CNN influences their decision making? With Stu Rothenberg, Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato all competing for attention as handicappers, I can't help but think that ego and guaranteed publicity is at least a small factor in what kind of official predictions they make.

    September 2, 2010 11:16 am at 11:16 am |
  14. tamade

    I actually hope the republicans can take back Congress because that way they can tank our country once more and push China to be a world leader! Isn't that the dream of all Republicans? It's like slapping you twice across the face and you still don't get it! Kudos to the voters of Repubs! I look forward to seeing my country fail once more. I bet most repubs would really want to live through another depression since most of the younger generations have not seen it. Now is that chance!

    September 2, 2010 11:16 am at 11:16 am |
  15. B.H.

    It's not the DEMS who are getting the scary prediction—it's our country. To think this nation would turn back to— of all WORST SCENARIOS— the cretinous GOP for help for the middle class and getting economically displaced America to prosper again and remain competitive with foreign nations overtaking us after failed GOP policies and corporate greed drove this great country to the brink of financial collapse. The GOP has no answers to give our country—just the do-nothing emblematic mantra of NO. They have deep, empty pockets for the middle class. If the right-wing extremist GOP cronies take power again, then we, as DUPED Americans, deserve it—and them. It's the world's biggest joke and it's on us. The GOP has bottled cretinism and has sold it to millions of morons. Good luck with reelecting NO and expecting it to work on your behalf!

    September 2, 2010 11:16 am at 11:16 am |
  16. katiec

    Continue on, CNN, with your headlining everything you can to cast more negativity towards the Democrats.
    Where are your headlines that the republicans have obstructed every move to help our survival?
    Where are your honor and integrity on reporting every ridiculous utterance of the right wing without ever fact checking or questioning?
    You hide behind news you can trust but have become as radical as Fox, biased, discriminating, unethical and self serving.
    You are a disgrace to the media, and a traitor to the American people.

    September 2, 2010 11:16 am at 11:16 am |
  17. doberman0306

    I CHANGED my party affiliation, I am proud to say I am now a Republican after 28 yrs..Obama kept saying CHANGE, well I FINALLY did...THIS DEPRESSION wiped me out.

    September 2, 2010 11:17 am at 11:17 am |
  18. Bessy

    All I can say is " God help this country if this is true ". The Republicans will just continue to say no to everything and in time they will get rid of SS, Medicare, etc. There will be no help for the low income or middle income folks. If it happens it is the stupid Democrats that let it happen, or the lazy who will not even go out and vote because it is easier to let it up to others and then they can lay around and complain. It is about time that people wake up and see how the Republicans are destroying this country by not even attempting to cooperate with the Democrats.

    September 2, 2010 11:17 am at 11:17 am |
  19. George Guadiane - Austerlitz, NY

    A noted pundit (with a CLEAR Republican bent) makes a prediction hoping it is a self fulfilling prophecy? What a BIG surprise!

    I'm still waiting till November – And I think he's VERY WRONG!

    September 2, 2010 11:18 am at 11:18 am |
  20. chelle

    It has more to do with Americans being among the most unsophisticated voters in the world. Did anyone really believe that the Democrats could pull the economy back in 18 months??? What lunatic would think that possible? Then you add in the ridiculous political rhetoric that the masses lap up "socialist" "marxist" "fascist" and you have a recipe for disaster....the disaster being the Republicans back in charge...... What absolutely slays me is that your average American cannot define these terms and thus has no idea that President Obama is no where near being any of these. Not to mention that they are mutually exclusive – hard to be a socialist and a fascist but why let reality and facts into politics.....

    September 2, 2010 11:19 am at 11:19 am |
  21. jim wayne

    obama is self serving. Obama is a smart man lacking wisdom..That produces a foolish person....another in your face thing is Obama lacks natural leadership abilities.
    Obama position on issues is "'government is the answer...government can do better than the private sector"'..Rather than from the bottom up its from the top down..Obamas governing position produces government making more and more decision for its people...Obamas governing will not produce a better America...No no this will produce...debt...a weak society..a broke society on its way down.. sincerely, jimmie wayne

    September 2, 2010 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
  22. martin

    The GOP is forecasting,Ha, what a joke. If they could Forecast they would have seen this mess coming. No thanks Sabato, sell it to a garden center because they are the only one's who buy crap.

    September 2, 2010 11:21 am at 11:21 am |
  23. William Jefferson

    So....the economy being on the skids is a reason to vote for the people who put there in the first place?

    Not a chance i would ever vote for a republicon in my lifetime given what they did to the country, the way in which they are trying to make the country fail instead of working to help it recover, and what they are proimising to continue doing if elected. Not a chance. It would be like inviting the guy who set fire to your house for a barbecue and handing him a can of lighter fluid.

    September 2, 2010 11:21 am at 11:21 am |
  24. mj

    You would have thought, by now, that Obama would have listened to the American People. Enough Bail-Outs, Spending, Government Take-Overs, and Back-Room Deals. The Democrats need to go!

    September 2, 2010 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  25. HD 100% ETH

    Eh...! Eyu-bel-you!
    Why do we have Two different Parties in this generations, at the first place???
    We should have just ONE-PARTY! Either we label it, DEMOCRATICAL-REPUBLIC OR REPUBLICAN-DEMOCRATIC. Like as we have now that works well, UNITED-STATES-OF-AMERICA.
    We must bring differences into ONE/SAME, instead of splitting them to cause more differences that will lead us to be in pieces.

    THE MOST WANTED IS TO BE UNITED!!!
    RIGHT NOW!!!

    September 2, 2010 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
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