(CNN) - A new poll indicates that the battle for Kentucky's open Senate seat is dead even.
According to a new CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation survey of registered voters in Kentucky, 46 percent support Republican nominee Rand Paul, with an equal amount saying they back Democratic nominee Jack Conway. Five percent of those questioned say they'd vote for neither candidate if the general election were held today, and four percent have no opinion.
Full results (pdf)
"Not surprisingly, Paul is winning among conservatives by more than 40 points," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But Conway has a 22-point advantage among moderates."
Paul holds an 11 point advantage among independent voters, according to the survey.
Paul, an eye surgeon and the son of former GOP presidential hopeful and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, defeated Kentucky Sec. of State Trey Grayson in a divisive primary. Paul enjoyed the support of many in Tea Party movement, while Grayson was backed by many establishment Republicans.
Conway, Kentucky's attorney general, topped Lt. Governor Don Mongiardo in a bitter primary contest.
The winner will succeed Republican Sen. Jim Bunning, who is retiring at the end of the year.
Kentucky is considered a red state. Sen. John McCain topped then Sen. Barack Obama by 16 points in the state in the 2008 presidential election and George W. Bush took Kentucky by 20 points in his 2004 re-election.
"The area around Lexington and Frankfort in the central part of the state looks like it will be the real battleground in Kentucky this year," Holland adds. "The two candidates are essentially tied there - 47 percent for Paul and 45 percent for Conway."
The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted September 2-7, with 869 registered voters in Kentucky questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report
FYI Rasmussen has Paul up by 13%. I love the arrogance of the dems thinking they will keep the house and senate. 1994 is going to look like a good year compared to the pasting they are going to take this year. I think 60 seats will be a pretty good estimate at this point. If the economy doesn't get better over the next 7-8 weeks it could be 75 seats in the house. The senate will be very close but I think the republicans will have the majority. It is not republican vs democrats anymore it is republicans vs socialism and I think America is upset with the dems going way to the left closer to socialism.
Great news I like Paul. Hope he gets it.
Hmmm, I'm beginning to think that the polling organizations are misreading the polls. Over the last few days, as the rethugliban and tea partiers are showing gains, the number of people saying the nation is headed in the wrong direction is increasing as well. That implies that the majority of Americans believe that voting handing the keys back to the reichwing nutbags whose party got us into this mess is sending us down a path the majority of Americans don't want to travel. Yes, we will remember in November! Here's to Florida turning a lovely shade of blue!
USA September 8th, 2010 5:14 pm ET
"FYI Rasmussen has Paul up by 13%. I love the arrogance of the dems thinking they will keep the house and senate. 1994 is going to look like a good year compared to the pasting they are going to take this year. I think 60 seats will be a pretty good estimate at this point. If the economy doesn't get better over the next 7-8 weeks it could be 75 seats in the house. The senate will be very close but I think the republicans will have the majority. It is not republican vs democrats anymore it is republicans vs socialism and I think America is upset with the dems going way to the left closer to socialism"
Republicans already have a majority in the senate: 41 votes. Have a nice day!
Rasmussen is a right-biased pollster. You might as well cite Scott Rasmussen's ties to WorldNetDaily, of all things.
Beats me why anyone wants to vote for a man who wants to do away with Social Security,is for deregulation of coal mines in KY, wants to rollback Civil Rights, and do away with Government in general. I know, I know I'm from AZ and I have my own idiots here too.
I think people keep forgetting tha Ru Paul I mean Rand Paul is a capetbagger he is not a kentuckian! he is not one of us he dosen't understand anything about Ky. He is an outsider a son of an idiot!
Eric in Denver and USA: great minds think alike? Hmmm....
Have a nice day!
Ted, while I agree with you, I have to go against the grain and vote for Charlie in the Florida Senate race. Meek just doesn't have enough backing, and as someone said on another message board, a vote for Meek is a vote for rubio (baby huey). Floridians who actually care about Florida can't let that happen.
Note to GOPers/conservatives: Rasmussen is a hack whose polls consistently lean far to the right of all other polling institutionse because Rasmussen...and Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight has proven this with MATH (i.e., stats)...cooks the hell out of raw data while generating the results that get reported. Coming here to whine about CNN's averages of several polls as biased and then trying to use Rasmussen to prove a point is the height of hypocrisy.
Conway is doing rather better than I had thought. Maybe it won't be such a bad year for the Dems afer all.
Nice try CNN. But I'll take SurveyUSA and Rasmussen's likely voters showing Rand Paul up 15 than you and your delusional registered voters poll showing a tie.
Rasmussen is known to lean decidedly right in its polling, so their 54% for Aquabuddah should really be taken with a grain of salt.
Does it matter that Jack Conway is the Attorney General in this Commonwealth not the Secretary of State? I can't get over the lack of attention by all the media outlets these days.
Rand Paul beat the Secretary of State Trey Greyson in the Republican Primary.
How are we supposed to trust the media if you all can't do a simple google search to get the facts right?
USA & Eric in Denver are the same people. Either that or they're copying and pasting someone else's work without giving them credit. That's called plagiarism and it's a crime. So which is it Eric/USA, are you a pathetic loser who posts under a bunch of different handles to give credence to your fascist cause, or are you a pathetic loser who has to resort to the crime of cribbing other people's rants because you lack the intelligence to think for yourself (not that there was much intelligence in Eric/USA's rant)?
CNN is such a pathetic joke. Their polls are so cooked and its hillarious. Keep lying to yourselves libertards, it's only going to make your tears tatste so much sweeter in November. I wish I could bottle and sell Demotard tears.
Attorney general Jack Conway has my 110% support
Rand Paul is from Texas and knows nothing about our state
Paul will be muzzled and placed in a corner by the Repub leadership if he wins.....Bunning is now the 99th most effective senator Paul will be the 100th and an embarrassment to our wonderful state
Kentuckians will wake up by election day and will send Conway to the Senate
Just another poll that has no meaning what so ever.CNN polls are notorious for being slanted toward liberals running for office.They are trying to help dems retain control of Congress.
Rand Paul double digit victory!!!! This poll is delusional in a liberals dream only.