September 27th, 2010
02:56 PM ET
4 years ago

Study: Red states may gain electoral votes, House seats

(CNN) – A new study predicts that when the dust settles from the 2010 Census, eight southern and western states will gain congressional seats largely at the expense of states in the Midwest and Northeast.

According to the unofficial study, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington would each gain an additional seat in Congress, while Florida and Texas would gain two and four seats, respectively.


States predicted to lose a single congressional seat are Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, while New York and Ohio are each projected to lose two seats.

Every ten years, upon the conclusion of the national census, the number of congressional seats in each state is recalculated based on population changes since the previous census. The process is known as "reapportionment."

It is the first step in the decennial redistricting process in which states redraw the boundaries of their congressional districts.

In addition to determining the number of congressional seats in the states, reapportionment will also affect the number of electoral votes each state will have at stake in the 2012 presidential election. States that gain or lose congressional seats also will gain or lose the same number of votes in the Electoral College, the body that ultimately elects the President of the United States.

Of the eight states predicted to gain electoral votes, five were carried by Republican John McCain in the 2008 presidential election, while three were carried by President Obama.

Eight states Obama won in 2008 are projected to lose electoral votes, compared to two states carried by McCain.

Although more so-called "red" states than "blue" states would gain electoral votes under this model, Obama still would have won the Electoral College vote by a comfortable margin if these numbers had been in effect in 2008.

The study was conducted by Election Data Services, a non-partisan political consulting firm that compiles and analyzes data on voting, elections, and redistricting. The projections are based on recent population estimates but have no role in the official reapportionment process.


Filed under: Census • House of Representatives • Republicans
soundoff (11 Responses)
  1. gt

    more bad news for the left wing nuts... sounds like its east , west coast democrats and red states in the heart land...obama is toast just like carter...

    September 27, 2010 03:17 pm at 3:17 pm |
  2. Fair is Fair

    Couple this with the absolute FACT that democrats are going to lose a pantload of governorships (and thus redistricting authority) this November bodes well for the Republicans in 2012. See ya later, Obama.

    September 27, 2010 03:24 pm at 3:24 pm |
  3. Why are Rush and his Mafia in hiding all the time?

    I predict many more states slowly turning blue,like Texas, more than half the state is Mexican American,and now retired people from the north.Im signing up people daily to vote blue.

    September 27, 2010 03:26 pm at 3:26 pm |
  4. Wardo

    Here in Texas, we have quite a few people moving down from Michigan, Cali and several northeast states. My only question to them is "You voted in liberals who then ruined your states with massive social programs, strong unions and high taxes. Why do you want to come in here, vote the same way and ruin our state"?

    September 27, 2010 03:36 pm at 3:36 pm |
  5. Can't We All Just Get Along?

    So if the GOP gets any power, which circle of hell does that put the U.S. in?

    September 27, 2010 03:39 pm at 3:39 pm |
  6. Sniffit

    "Couple this with the absolute FACT that democrats are going to lose a pantload of governorships (and thus redistricting authority) this November bodes well for the Republicans in 2012. See ya later, Obama."

    As snarky as I am, it is truly, truly a rare thing for me to say this, but "I TOLD YOU SO." That's for proving me right, pal.

    September 27, 2010 03:46 pm at 3:46 pm |
  7. Sniffit

    "Couple this with the absolute FACT that democrats are going to lose a pantload of governorships (and thus redistricting authority) this November bodes well for the Republicans in 2012. See ya later, Obama."

    As snarky as I am, it is truly, truly a rare thing for me to say this, but "I TOLD YOU SO." That's for proving me right, pal.

    Here's the 2 +2:

    What demographic attributes are shared by the people increasing the populations of red states such that they will gain more representatives and, therefore, the electoral votes that go with them?

    Now, ask yourselves...how quickly will one of these red states land itself in court for a blatantly racist redistricting plan?

    Oh, and don't forget put the cherry on top: their desire to repeal the 17th Amendment. That's right: (1) redistrict to marginalize burgeoning minority populations; (2) redistrict to assure conservative state legislature for foreseeable future...obviously linked to #1; and (3) appoint conservative puppet Senators through said permanently conservative state legislature.

    September 27, 2010 03:51 pm at 3:51 pm |
  8. diridi

    I do not care too much about these made up polls, I shall and will vote for Obama and this time direct Democratic Party...I told to my household members too....they are voting for Democrats...If GOP thugs win, this nation goes to dogs...they sell this nation to India or china for may be 23 cents...

    September 27, 2010 03:55 pm at 3:55 pm |
  9. ron

    When the GOP loses they try to change everything, boderlines, the constitution, id to vote, everything.

    September 27, 2010 04:02 pm at 4:02 pm |
  10. stufit

    The election of 2008 showed the danger that an unvetted, seriously flawed candidate can win. Now we must pay for the mistake for four years, but we must learn from it and totally snuff out this liberal disease.

    September 27, 2010 04:02 pm at 4:02 pm |
  11. Ron in California

    California is about 65% Democrat in voter registration. The State Assembly has been controlled by Dems forever. The Unions are breaking the Bank, California is broke with no hope in sight.The Nation is broke, What don't the Democratr voters get. With a continued Democrat majority nothing will get better. At least if we vote in the Republicans MAYBE something can change. Obama say he wanted to bring Hope and change. Maybe with the Republicans we can hope FOR change.

    September 27, 2010 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |