(CNN) - The wild three-way Senate race in Alaska now appears to be a two-person fight for the top spot, according to a new poll.
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Wednesday indicates that 38 percent of likely voters in the state support GOP nominee Joe Miller, with 36 percent saying they back Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who was narrowly defeated by Miller in last month's GOP primary.
Full results (pdf)
Murkowski is now running as a write-in candidate in the general election.
According to the poll, 22 percent back Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee, with four percent either undecided or not supporting any of the three candidates listed in the survey.
Miller's two-point advantage over Murkowski is within the survey's sampling error.
Late last month, Murkowski conceded defeat in her bid for her party's nomination. The senator, who is part of a political dynasty in Alaska, was upset in the August 24 primary by Miller, a previous longshot who enjoyed strong support from Tea Party activists and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.
"It looks like Alaska Democrats may be planning to do some strategic voting," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said.
Nearly four in ten Democratic likely voters say they plan to write in Murkowski's name. That's an indication that a lot of Democrats are more interested in defeating Miller than they are in electing a member of their own party."
Murkowski's support is high among women, lower-income voters, and senior citizens - all groups that give her 43 percent of their vote.
"Senior citizens may be a hidden advantage to Murkowski's write-in candidacy," Holland said. "Not only are they slightly more likely to vote in midterms, they are also the most experienced voters and may be most familiar with the often puzzling process of casting a write-in vote."
In the gubernatorial contest, the poll indicates that incumbent Gov. Scott Parnell leads former state lawmaker Ethan Berkowitz, the Democratic nominee, 57 to 38 percent among likely voters. Parnell, who was elected lieutenant governor in 2006, assumed the governorship in the summer of 2009 when Palin stepped down.
The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted Sept. 24-28, with 1,528 adults, including 927 likely voters in Alaska, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for likely voters.
– CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report
Murkowski will win – and she will remember much
Bernie Sanders, Joe Lieberman, Lisa Murkowski, Charlie Crist
(Don't believe the 'polls' – Florida democrats will vote in droves for Crist – come election day)
Alaskans will do the right think
“Murkowski's support is high among women, lower-income voters, and senior citizens – all groups that give her 43 percent of their vote” this prove she will win
Tea party calculation again wrong
Tea Party – crash and burn........
Dems keep thinking that they are going to win this election in a lanslide. Keep believen in that and be sure to send lots of dollars to this race.
I could say I am surprised but I am glad that the folks in Alaska, after giving us that half term retarded governor, realize that miller has a lot of baggage and are paying attention to farm subsidies and miller getting money to buy a house for people who make less than a certain very small amount while he was making over $70k as a lawyer.
Better late than never and in this case, because it's NEVER TOO LATE, never on Miller.
The Tea Party did not count all of the TEA LEAVES!!! When you are that EXTREME – it hurts!!! Murkowski is going to beat MILLER because he thinks he's a 'know-it-all' and actually he doesn't!!
Now as for the DEMOCRATS in AK – UNITE the BASE and beat Murkowski only because we CAN!!!
This is T'SAH and I approve this message!!!
Remember it's spelled M U R K O W S K I, write it down otherwise they will steal your vote. M U R K O W S K I
Vote for the establishment if you like, but change is coming compliments of our crushing debt. Hate Joe Miller because some spin master said he will take away your social security? Guess what it's going to end anyway! We are bankrupt America! Wake up! We have to make real changes to survive, and the answers are in our Constitution. Every major issue facing us today is a result of the lack of respect for the rule of law and the Constitution. If we followed the Constitution we'd have no national debt, no income tax, no taxes targeted against groups of people, we would not be at war, no Federal Reserve which is a group of PRIVATE INTERNATIONAL BANKERS controlling our economy, and we would not be running a global military empire we cannot afford! The answer is neither left nor right, democrat or republican or tea party. It's in the Constitution and opening peoples minds to the beauty of this document and the fact that it is in every American's interest to protect it! Applied properly our Constitution protects us!
McAdams' first TV ad starts airing today. He's got nowhere to go but up.
This internal bickering on the right is not good for them. The Tea Party is going to divide the Republican party, and be counter productive in a year where the right could have made substantial gains. The Tea Party has to realize that their candidates are in many cases going to have a hard time standing up to the scutiny of the general election. This is what has happened to the right in letting the extremists bleed into the party and marginalize the moderates.
I always find it amusing to watch non-Alaskans comment on Alaskan politics. You folks haven't got a clue about the political situation up here: you are merely projecting what you want to happen.
If Lisa Murkowski wins, I wonder what party she will caucus with? The Republicans have turned their backs on her and embarrassingly almost stripped her of a major committee position. The Democrats would welcome her so that they can remain in the majority, but she has voted no on every one of the Dem's initiatives.
Talk about a race to the bottom. What's wrong with Alaska? Its citizeny must actually enjoy being ruled by dumber-than-mud, bottom-dwelling [R]s.
And, gee what a constitutional scholar constitutionalpatrriot is. What insight! ALL of our problems have occurred because we ignore the constitution.....what incisive analsys! Actually, what a fairytale! So let's have some reality.....what's missing from cp's description of his "constitutional" world - welll we'd still have child labor, a huge portion of our population would be uneducated, and people with skin color different than his would only be 40% citizens. We'd be a third-world agrarian society, one whose blind devotion to a document rendered lifeless by its treatment as quasi-religeous dogma would not allow it to progress into the industrial revolution and into the 20th century. We'd be lucky if we weren't a slave society to the German reich. Yes, the founders would be so proud of cp and his vision of a non-progressing freedom-less America.
The delusion of these Tea-tards like cp is quite astounding.
I searched the CNN/Time poll results everywhere I could find to discover their breakdown on the number of Democrats / Republicans and Independents that were polled for each race. I could find no number. How can a polling organization produce results w/o telling us how many of each group was interviewed for the survey?
Such unprofessionalism is disgraceful.
Please say it ain't so Alaska. Murkowski is the most corrupt Senator in Congress. I can't believe Alaskans would re-elect her.
To JoeBloe: And Palin hasn't a clue about the lower 48 either.
I am not sure I believe this poll. In the poll people were asked if they would support Miller, McAdams, or Murkowski. However, in the election Murkowski's name WILL NOT be on the ballot! I think this will overestimate Murkowski’s vote. I think a more reasonable poll would ask about Miller and McAdams, and also offer Other, then ask who if Other, but not supplying Murkowski's name.
More fraudulent Lib polling. The fact is that Murkowski has to be left off the poll for a write-in to get an accurate gauge of her vote, because she will not draw the accidental votes. In other words, people will have to know who she is in order to cast a vote for her. The libs want their buddy Liberal Lisa Murkowski to win but Alaska is a conservative state.
The reason she will not win is that if someone mispells her name the vote will count under the mispelling. Also to all of you DEMS on this board making fun of teabaggers you act the same way when someone in your party goes against what your party wants.
They don't have to spell Miller's name they do murkowskey or is it Murkowsky. Either way Miller wins and another liberal hiding as a conservative goes bye bye like her Democrat bretheren.
LOl....Murkowski come election day will finish in 3rd place, just like Crist.
CNN polled 1528 ADULTS of which only 927 were likely voters. This is a fake poll. Over 1/3 of the people questioned arent even voting.
On the weekend before the election in 1996, CNN had Clinton 52, Dole 35. Election Day Clinton 49 Dole 42. CNN was off by more than a factor of 2.
A better poll would be who are you going to vote for and not provide the names of candidates.
Can't these polititcians loose with honor?? I mean when they loose and the people have spoken, they still can't admit they have lost. Murkowski lost. She needs to go away and get a job in the private sector. What is going to start happening now is each time a politician looses, they are going to write in. I think that is why this country has the problems it does. These were not meant to be lifetime jobs people!! She is a sore looser and needs to go. I know it must be horrible that she might have to get a regular job like the rest of us but that is life. She is not GOD.
Tea Party is just shameful. Glen Beck is going to have a seizure, heart attack, or stroke if he doesn't calm down. Rush Limbaugh is not as eratic cause he can pop a pill at will. Laura Ingram just needs a doctor to shorten her neck. She looks like a friggin giraffe. And all the other FOX idiots (mainly the owner), must have ridden the short bus and been beat up on while in school. They are all "Stuck on Stupid".
Big Oil and the Koch boys are happy that their shill is deadlocked with their astroturf "created" nutjob.