(CNN) – A new poll in the Pennsylvania Senate battle indicates Republicans have a good shot at regaining a Democratic-held seat they lost just a little over a year ago.
According to a McClatchy-Marist survey released Monday, 51 percent of likely Pennsylvania voters say they are backing Republican Senate nominee Pat Toomey, with 42 percent supporting Rep. Joe Sestak, the Democrat's nominee, with six percent undecided.
Other recent polls give Toomey anywhere from a three point to a nine point margin over Sestak, including a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll that indicated Toomey had a five point advantage.
According to the McClatchy-Marist survey, Toomey leads by 12 points among likely independent voters. Among the larger sampling of all registered voters, Toomey has an insignificant 40 percent 38 percent advantage, with one in five undecided.
Sestak's a former Navy admiral and two-term congressman from southeastern Pennsylvania. Toomey is a former congressman and is also the former head of the Club for Growth, a limited-government and anti-tax organization.
Sestak beat Sen. Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary in May. Specter, a five-term senator, switched parties from Republican to Democrat in the spring of last year. At the time of the party switch, he cited the difficulty in winning the Republican primary against Toomey as a factor.
The McClatchy-Marist poll was conducted September 26-28, with 817 registered voters in Pennsylvania, including 468 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for registered voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for likely voters.
–Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn