(CNN) - Rep. Roy Blunt holds a double digit lead over Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan in the state's Senate battle, according to a new poll.
A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Wednesday indicates that 53 percent of likely voters support the seven term Republican congressman, with four in ten backing Carnahan, the Democrat's nominee, in a fight between two of Missouri's leading political dynasties.
Full results (pdf)
According to the poll, Carnahan is leading overwhelmingly among Democrats, while Blunt leads overwhelmingly among Republican and holds a 56 to 33 percent advantage over Carnahan among independent voters. Carnahan leads by eight points in the St. Louis area, while Blunt is up by 18 points in the Kansas City region. The two appear to be splitting the northern part of the state while Blunt is up by a more than two to one margin in southern part of Missouri.
The survey also suggests a strong income gap and a problem for Carnahan among women voters.
"Carnahan does 20 points better among lower-income voters than among those who make more than $50,000," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
"She wins a 53 percent majority among the lower-income group but only 33 percent among the higher-income voters. That gap is bigger than the gender gap or generation gap in the Missouri race this year."
That's not to say that gender doesn't matter. "Roy Blunt is achieving what many Republicans can only wish for - he has nearly a majority of the women's vote in Missouri," says Holland. "Among women it's 49 percent for Blunt and just 44 percent for Carnahan. That's bad news for any Democrat, but for a Democratic woman, it's a major problem."
Other polls of likely voters conducted in the past two weeks put Blunt's lead in the single digits.
The winner in November will succeed retiring Republican Sen. Kit Bond.
The poll indicates only 34 percent of likely voters approve of the job President Barack Obama is doing in the White House, with more than six in ten saying the disapprove. The president's approval rating among all adults is 37 percent, with 55 percent giving Obama a thumbs down.
"Suburban Missouri has turned against the President, particularly in the Kansas City suburbs," says Holland. "Across the state, Obama is more popular in the suburban areas around St. Louis, but even there his approval rating is just below 50 percent."
The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted October 1-5, with 1,503 Missouri adults, including 1,389 registered voters and 832 likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points for likely voters.
- CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report