(CNN) – Republican Gov. Jan Brewer of Arizona has a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Terry Goddard in her bid for a full term in office, according to a new survey.
A Rocky Mountain Poll released Monday indicates that Brewer faces stiff competition from Goddard, the state's attorney general, when it comes to registered voters, with Brewer holding a 38 to 35 point advantage among registered voters, with more than one in five undecided.
With a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points for registered voters, the survey indicates that this race is a statistical dead heat. Brewer led by 20 points in a Rocky Mountain Poll conducted in July.
Among voters most likely to cast ballots in the midterm elections, Brewer's lead widens to eleven points. Likely voters prefer the former Arizona secretary of state 46 to 35 percent over Goddard, who also served as mayor of Phoenix. Fifteen percent of likely voters are undecided.
The Rocky Mountain poll also indicates that Goddard largely benefits from Latino support, with 60 percent of the community stating that they are committed to voting for him. Thirteen percent of the Latino community supports Brewer, who has received scrutiny for the controversial immigration and border security bill that she signed into law. It requires individuals who are not American citizens to carry registration documents required by federal law. The bill, titled "Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act," authorizes state and local law officers to enforce federal immigration laws.
Still, Brewer remains in fighting form with support from her base, voters who classify themselves as "very conservative." Sixty-three percent of those voters back Brewer for governor while one-fifth of conservatives are drawn to Goddard. Brewer also draws more of the independent vote, attracting 33 to 26 percent over Goddard.
The survey indicates that Goddard leads among women voters in Arizona 43 to 31 percent while male voters break for Brewer 44 to 28 percent. Both candidates will need to convince those who have yet to make up their minds about Arizona's gubernatorial election if they want to move into the governor's mansion this fall. There are plenty of voters to reach, as fifteen percent of likely Arizona voters remain undecided.
The Rocky Mountain Poll was conducted October 1-10, with 555 registered voters in Arizona questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Brewer became governor early last year, when then Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano stepped down to become Secretary of Homeland Security in the Obama administration.