October 15th, 2010
10:36 AM ET
4 years ago

Poll suggests Manchin up 10 pts. in West Virginia

(CNN) - A new poll indicates that Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin of West Virginia leads his Republican challenger by double digits in the battle over an open Senate held by the Democrats for over half a century.

According to a Marshall University poll released Friday, 48 percent of likely voters in West Virginia support the popular two-term governor, with 38 percent backing businessman John Raese, the GOP nominee, and 12 percent undecided.

Other recent polls suggest a closer contest, including a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday that indicated the two candidates were dead even at 44 percent.

The winner of the special election in November will fill out the final two years of the term of Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd, who died earlier this year. Byrd was first elected to the Senate in 1958.

The Marshall University poll was conducted by West Virginia based Orion Strategies on Monday and Tuesday, with 450 likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 4.6 percent points.

Orion Strategies is public relations, political consulting and advertising business founded and owned by Curtis Wilkerson, who has assisted Democratic candidates. Wilkerson tells CNN that while he does assist Democratic candidates, he says his organization's polls conducted for West Virginia universities, colleges, and media outlets are non partisan.

The poll was conducted as former President Bill Clinton teamed up with Manchin at a rally in Morgantown, and as a new commercial by Manchin's campaign in which the governor says he will "take dead aim at the Cap and Trade bill" before firing a rifle at what appears to be a copy of the Democratic-backed legislation on clean energy and climate change reform, which is unpopular in West Virginia.

–Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @psteinhausercnn

Check out CNN's new Polling Center, which provides the most comprehensive polling data covering national questions and the top 2010 election races of any news organization in the political landscape.


Filed under: 2010 • Joe Manchin • John Raese • Polls • West Virginia
soundoff (15 Responses)
  1. Voter

    America doesn't want tea. That fad is fading as fast as Sarah Palin's star power.

    October 15, 2010 10:38 am at 10:38 am |
  2. Sgt. Joe

    Good news in W.VA; these folks are responsible voters.

    October 15, 2010 10:38 am at 10:38 am |
  3. stufthis

    Why would anyone from W. VA think that Raese would help them? His family lives in Florida, and he wants to eliminate the minimum wage. 19 more days until we see if billionaires and millionaires along with foreign governments will take over congress by electing republicans.

    October 15, 2010 10:41 am at 10:41 am |
  4. vic nashville tn

    Foreign money can’t buy West Virginia voters

    October 15, 2010 10:45 am at 10:45 am |
  5. Charlie from the North

    I think you will find that by the time America has a chance to think a lot more Dems will be doing a lot better.

    October 15, 2010 10:48 am at 10:48 am |
  6. Augsbee

    At the end of the day if West Virginians think that their state is doing well with the politicians they have and want the same politicians to stay on to keep things running as well as they have it running then that is the way they will vote. Glad to see West Virginia is doing so well afterall.

    October 15, 2010 10:50 am at 10:50 am |
  7. PalmReader

    For the past two years now, polls have been all over the board. Apparently the corporate polling industry is having a difficult time getting folks to agree with whatever it is they (corporate media) is selling these days, hence the skewed and often misleading results. Manchin is well respected in West Virginia, be he a Democrat or not. It is for West Virginia's to decide his fate, not pollsters, Rove, CNN, or any other entity trying to make a buck off this years elections.

    October 15, 2010 10:52 am at 10:52 am |
  8. SC Guy

    Don't get too excited about this poll. Orion Strategies apparently has Democratic ties according to Real Clear Politics. I think it's still a close race and that John Raese has an excellent chance of winning.

    October 15, 2010 10:57 am at 10:57 am |
  9. David Blackburn

    As a West Virginian, I support Governor Joe Manchin for Senator. First of all, John Raese does not live in West Virginia, he and his family are Floridians that left West Virginia for the good life. Governor Manchin has been a good Governor and should be rewarded for his work for West Virginia, not punished by denying him the opportunity to serve as Senator. If he fails to do his job as Senator, then look to replace him. It appears that the Republican candidates want to take away any gains made in wages, health care, and unions. Finally, while most people make their money the old fashion way by earning it, Raese inherited his and cares nothing about the struggles of everyday, hard-working people in West Virginia. It's all about the almight dollar to him.

    October 15, 2010 10:57 am at 10:57 am |
  10. Liberal4Obama

    HickyGate is burying the GOP in West VA and across the country. Thats what happens when you call the American people ugly names.

    October 15, 2010 11:08 am at 11:08 am |
  11. Fred

    CNN, this is a terrible article. The poll was done by a Democratic Firm.

    October 15, 2010 11:14 am at 11:14 am |
  12. CG

    Well I hope when the GOP ran an ad with the WV residents as bumkins they got a taste of what the GOP thinks and how bias they are as a party! Every state has its rural areas where we find the good ole boys but to protray the whole state that way was wrong and showed what the repubs are made up of , bias and bigorty!

    October 15, 2010 11:18 am at 11:18 am |
  13. terry, va

    All of the people polled were from McDowell county which is 95% dumbocraps. There is no way that people in Cabell or Kanawha county was polled nor was it a state wide poll.

    October 15, 2010 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  14. Marty, FL

    Gov. Joe Manchin is the better choice to represent citizens in the state, especially after NRSC's Raese insulted West Virginians with fake actors trying to dumb down hard workers’ intelligence. Shame on Raese.

    October 15, 2010 11:46 am at 11:46 am |
  15. barry

    It's done by a Democrat pollster. When you look at the other polling data it is way off. Either there has been a major shift or this is like a biased poll you see from Time.

    October 15, 2010 12:01 pm at 12:01 pm |