(CNN) – A new poll indicates that the GOP is on the cusp of capturing an Arkansas Senate seat last held by a Republican in the 1870s.
According to a CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday, 55 percent of likely voters now support four-term Republican Rep. John Boozman for November's general election. Only 41 percent back two-term incumbent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln.
Full results (pdf)
Two percent back neither candidate, while another two percent offered no opinion.
The race is only marginally tighter among the larger pool of registered voters, where Boozman holds a 53 to 42 percent lead.
Independents are breaking sharply for Boozman, favoring the Republican over Lincoln by a 63 to 29 percent margin.
One likely drag on Lincoln's re-election prospects: the strong disapproval of President Barack Obama in Arkansas. Only one in three Arkansas voters approves of Obama's job performance; more than six in ten disapprove.
Obama lost the increasingly Republican state to Arizona Sen. John McCain by 20 points in 2008.
Obama's unpopularity may be undercutting the efforts of another Arkansas political veteran - former President Bill Clinton - who has repeatedly tried to help Lincoln this year.
Clinton most recently teamed up with Lincoln at a campaign event in Jonesboro last Wednesday. He also backed Lincoln in a fiercely contested Democratic primary against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who enjoyed the support of a number of progressives and union leaders.
In addition to relying on Clinton, Lincoln has also played up her ability to help the Arkansas economy through her role as chairwoman of the Senate Agriculture Committee. So far, however, it seems her campaign pitch isn't sufficient to buck the apparent Republican tide.
"Lincoln has a three-point advantage among lower-income Arkansans," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But Boozman has a commanding 18-point lead among Arkansas voters who make more than $50,000 a year."
One bright spot for Arkansas Democrats: first-term incumbent Gov. Mike Beebe is leading GOP challenger Jim Keet by a whopping 27-point margin - 62 to 35 percent - among likely voters.
Beebe's margin is nearly identical among registered voters.
The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted October 15-19, with 1,505 adults, including 1,260 registered voters and 809 likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for likely voters.
– CNN's Alan Silverleib contributed to this report
It is great to see Republicans pick this one up. Time to get the counyry back on track. The children
Well, if Lincoln didn't sell out HCR like she did, she'd probably have more support from the Dem base. Oh well.
Sen. Blanche Lincoln really I want her to win the election but same time they have to learn lesson
Health care bill drama this month then next month it was horrible
lincoln is done.... has been for a long time,,,,obama cost her a easy win,,,,
@ barry: the country back on track??????? What track, the track to theocracy; the track to bigotry? The track back to the failed policies of the GOP?
Good, she is a republican anyway, they may as well have one that publicly admits it.
She is the one who opposed Demoratic agenta so strongly. Though I am a liberal democrat, I don't want her to be elected. If we send her back to senate, he will surely do the same just side with NO party GOP.
vote the repos out Stop blaming everything on Obama and stand up and vote the repos out. Are your crazy?? if they take over we are back in a big hole. Talk about taxes. the middle class will have to carry everything. The rich will just keep getting richer with all the tax breaks they get. Don't get sick if the repos take over. Vote the party of NO out.
It is nice to see fiscally irresponsible, bleeding heart liberals get the boot. Dont worry about the Republicans..as the Tea Party Movement continues to gain momentum we will hold encumbents, regardless of party affiliation, accountable. Of course you may not like it if you are liberal. "theocracy", "bigotry"??? Sounds like typical libdemwit bandwagon hype to me.
Sweet!! Some of us are really enjoying this election season... Others, probably not...