October 27th, 2010
04:30 PM ET
4 years ago

CNN/Time Poll: Paul leads Kentucky Senate race

(CNN) - The hotly contested race for Kentucky's open Senate seat is nearing an end with Republican nominee Rand Paul holding a seven-point lead, according to a new poll.

Fifty percent of likely voters support Paul in the CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation survey, while 43 percent back Democratic nominee Jack Conway.

Full results (pdf)

Three percent of those questioned say they'd vote for neither candidate if the general election were held today, while four percent have no opinion.

Paul's lead can be explained in part through a significant gender gap. He is holding a 16-point advantage among men, while Conway only holds a four-point lead among women.

Paul is crushing Conway by 37 points - 63 to 26 percent - among independents.

Perceptions of the conservative Tea Party movement, which has provided critical backing for Paul - are also affecting the race.

"Paul picks up nearly nine in ten voters who support the Tea Party movement, and Conway has almost the same share of voters who oppose it," noted CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "But 35 percent of likely voters are neutral towards the Tea Party, and unlike other Senate races, the Republican has a small advantage among that group."

The race is much tighter among the larger pool of registered voters, with Paul holding only a two-point advantage, 46 to 44 percent.

The race has drawn national attention partly as a result of allegations that Paul, as a student at Baylor University, belonged to a group that mocked Christians and once forced a woman to kneel before an idol named "aquabuddha."

Paul, an eye surgeon and the son of former GOP presidential hopeful and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, defeated Kentucky Sec. of State Trey Grayson in a divisive Republican primary.

Conway, Kentucky's attorney general, topped Lt. Governor Don Mongiardo in a bitter Democratic contest.

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted October 20-26, with 1,336 registered voters in Kentucky, including 785 likely voters questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for registered voters and 3.5 percentage points for likely voters.

– CNN's Alan Silverleib contributed to this report


Filed under: 2010 • CNN/Time poll • Jack Conway • Kentucky • Polls • Rand Paul
soundoff (23 Responses)
  1. Squiggs

    If Kentucky had a history of knowing whats good for them it wouldn't be Kentucky. Paul will make sure the few people in Kenrucky who haven't slipped into poverty end up there in short order. Good luck suckers.

    October 27, 2010 04:35 pm at 4:35 pm |
  2. Me

    YOUR POLLS MEAN NOTHING!

    And the point is we should have never gone to Iraq in the first place

    October 27, 2010 04:37 pm at 4:37 pm |
  3. Tam

    What will happen the day after the election - will Americans wake up after a bad hangover and think - "I did what?!?!" Lord help us if some of these barely conscious human beings get elected. What will they do in Washington? Who will be pulling their strings?

    October 27, 2010 04:38 pm at 4:38 pm |
  4. Jim

    Amazing, I never would have thought the people of Kentucky where as gulable as the people of South Carolina, just goes to show you can't fix stupid...

    October 27, 2010 04:40 pm at 4:40 pm |
  5. Danny Cali

    People who Vote for Paul is very very stupid.

    October 27, 2010 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  6. GOP Scorched Earth Politics

    Please vote Republican so they can help outsource your job and stomp on your head if you object to the agenda.

    October 27, 2010 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  7. Cosmo

    The results of this poll are not exctly an advertisement for the Commonwealth of Kentucky.

    October 27, 2010 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  8. al in memphis

    It would be great if there was a slot on the ballot that said "neither of them". If you can remember some of the highlights of this campaign, you would wonder where are the people who care more about representing the people and less about representing the party. There is a difference between government and politics. Recently, I think party politics has become like the radical jehad of government.

    October 27, 2010 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  9. vic nashville tn

    Rand Paul ad is airing here targeting southern ky voters that mean he was in trouble now came back

    October 27, 2010 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  10. cell tech

    Well that should do it folks.
    CNN/Time: +7
    PPP: +15
    Rasmussen +7

    Even Conway's campaign pollster said the Aqua Buddha ad was a huge mistake and hurt him! Conway's best bet is to start campaigning for his second term as attorney general. After the Courier-Journal sat on the story for months, it is now coming out that Conway helped his brother (a drug dealer) escape prosecution by tipping him off!

    But 7 points is not enough. We need a 15+ win, to gain momentum for Ron Paul's 2012 run, and to send a mandate that the American public is serious about a balanced budget amendment, term limits, ending nation-building abroad, and abolishing the federal reserve. Good day.

    October 27, 2010 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  11. JSW

    This should be a lesson to the establishment; we're not gonna take it anymore. They have awoke the sleeping giant and in 6 days, CHANGE will finally come at last!

    October 27, 2010 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  12. Randolph Carter, I'm no expert, but....

    Aquabuddha is pleased. Have a nice day!

    October 27, 2010 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  13. What is the country coming to

    If Paul wins this election it would be a day of sadness , setting our country back 100 years. We need to move forward so KY please don't vote for him, he don't care about you. Just big business. Think about it your state will be in big trouble you havn't seen nothing yet.................................

    October 27, 2010 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  14. @Omegaraiel (twitter)

    That's a lot of people who think only those with money deserve rights.

    October 27, 2010 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  15. ryche

    HAHHAHA... This is the second ticker i've read where all the liberals are out of their mind crazy that Rand is giong to win... They throw out these odd accusations using fear to try and persuade voters... He's going to take us back 100 years.. he's going to throw away civil rights.. He's going to stomp your head.. HAHHAHAAHHA... I take it you do not realize how stupid you actually sound... he is but one vote out of many... Here i'll repeat that for the lazy liberals.. he is but one vote out of many.. So get your heads out of the sand, and stop trying to use fear in order to try and sway votes.. your lies are just that.. LIES... btw.. AHA..

    October 27, 2010 05:20 pm at 5:20 pm |
  16. Marko

    If Paul wins in Kentucky, then this is another too scary of a place to visit. Cross this one off the list too. Just like Nevada if Angle wins there. I really love my country, but if too many of these folks win, then the whole country is getting really scary. People who are for these crazy people...wake up. This is not the right way to go to solve our issues no matter how angry you are.

    October 27, 2010 05:25 pm at 5:25 pm |
  17. D. Bunker

    Ignore these phony landline polls, which the so-called "liberal" media keep pushing in an apparent effort to discourage Dem voters. Average hard working Americans have seen the light, and recognize that the GOBP is a desperate cult, and rather than admit their articles of faith, such as deregulation, tax cuts for the ultrarich and unfair global trade, are PROVEN FAILURES, these nutjob extremists instead are seeking to spread their darkness of ignorance, fear, lies, and hate. We are the light, and our votes will send the teatards scuttling away, like cockroaches from the light. The Party of NO has no plan, no valid ideas and certainly no concern for Main St. America. They are massively out of touch with the poor and working class. We know this, and will vote accordingly. Then get your friends, family, neighbors and co-workers to vote for non-teatards as well.

    October 27, 2010 05:36 pm at 5:36 pm |
  18. LacrosseMom(real one)

    I have lost all respect for polls. First of all, 50 to 43 is 7% points, plus 3 or 4 points for the margin of error....... and the Kentucky race is ...... pretty CLOSE. I would love to have CNN poll Kentuckians today, after the fiasco with Rand Paul's campaign worker. And again, I say....... pollsters can't reach those of us with .......cell phones!

    CNN was predicting a huge win for the Teapublicans this summer, and now many races are too close to call. So I will wait and see what, We, the People decide on NOvember 2nd!

    Please, Liberals, Moderates and Independents get out and vote! THINK long and hard before turning the Country back to the Republicans! Remember......... 2008!

    October 27, 2010 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  19. stevegee

    We The People have two choices on November 2nd:

    Vote for the American principles of freedom and liberty, vote for a free market economy, vote for individual responsibility and opportunity - vote Republican.

    OR

    Vote for the overreaching, overspending, overtaxing, overtly divisive agenda of Obama, Pelosi and Reid.

    October 27, 2010 06:07 pm at 6:07 pm |
  20. Jack

    Yep, they'll get "change" alright; how stupid can this state really be? Whoops, I guess we're learning that, aren't we?

    October 27, 2010 07:09 pm at 7:09 pm |
  21. George of the jungle

    What do expect from a state like Kentucky. So much for visiting there. I guess they want to move backward and Paul is the looney that will take them there. Vote the repos out in Novemberor you could end up like Kentucky

    October 27, 2010 07:50 pm at 7:50 pm |
  22. T'SAH from Virginia

    Look at the sampling error rate – once it goes above 2 points, the POLL is HOGWASH!! It's rhetoric at its best and the American people are not FOOLED by it!!!!!

    DEMOCRATS – from this day until November 2, DON'T BELIEVE THE POLLS and don't get discouraged!!! Get out and VOTE and let's continue to MOVE AMERICA FORWARD!!!

    This is T'SAH from VA and I am FIRED UP and READY to GO VOTE!!!

    October 27, 2010 08:25 pm at 8:25 pm |
  23. Jack

    Go Rand Paul!
    From Australia

    October 27, 2010 08:32 pm at 8:32 pm |