October 27th, 2010
11:40 AM ET
3 years ago

New prediction in battle for the House

Washington (CNN) - With six days to go until the midterm elections, one of the top non-partisan political handicappers is upping the prediction of how many seats the Republicans will win back in the House of Representatives.

The Cook Political Report Wednesday forecast a net gain of 48 to 60 seats for the Republicans, with higher gains possible. The GOP needs a net gain of 39 seats to win back control of the chamber from the Democrats, who have held the House and the Senate for the last four years.

"The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified. Whereas fewer than a third of Democratic Senate seats are up for election, House Democrats are suffering the full violence of this national undertow," says the Cook Political Report.

Another top non-partisan political handicapper, the Rothenberg Political Report, forecasts Republican gains of 45 to 55 seats, with an excess of 60 seats quite possible.

The largest midterm House loss for the president's party over the past half century came in 1994, when the GOP won back 52 seats to retake the House, and the Senate as well.

Twelve years later the Democrats won back control of the chamber with a net gain of 30 seats, as well as taking back the Senate.

Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @PsteinhauserCNN


Filed under: 2010
soundoff (61 Responses)
  1. XWngLady

    Don't listen to it Dems...Vote for Democrats on Tuesday, November 2nd. All of these polls are conducted on what they considered to be a "likely" voter, which is basically an old, white, retired person with a land-line. But just like we did in 2008, we are going to create a new voter paradigm for mid-term elections and I predict that it will not be this Republican "wave" that people are trying to scare us with.

    October 27, 2010 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
  2. chris

    Its over democrats, its over!

    October 27, 2010 11:56 am at 11:56 am |
  3. Tim

    These polls are not that surprising. In my opinion, many Americans can be defined well using two words: "impatient" and "more" In the words of Andrew Bacevich, "Most Americans idea of freedom seems to be defined as unfettered access to cheap oil, cheap goods and easy credit". Well, the cost of oil is going up (cost of gasoline is about $3 per gallon), most people can see that the cost of goods is increasing, and there is hardly such a thing as easy credit anymore. So, we'll elect a bunch of other people, wipe the slate clean and begin again to fool ourselves.

    October 27, 2010 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  4. Rickster

    And all over the country democrats are being democrats and trying to steal elections. There are already report after report of democrat election fraud. But I guess that's no surprise...it happens every election year by slimy groups like ACORN(or spinoffs thereof) and SEIU. There is no lower life form on earth than a democrat.

    October 27, 2010 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  5. barry

    Bye Nancy. Reid leaves for good. Obama leaves in 2012.

    October 27, 2010 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  6. vic nashville tn

    CNN please post your analysis or report I don’t trust the cook political report

    Till Oct 21 2010 their report say Delaware senate likely democrats Connecticut lean to democrats and California Toss up we know these three race are solid for democrats

    We are living in internet world we get news within seconds

    Posting this report CNN you are fooling yourself or you are leaning to right wing

    October 27, 2010 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm |
  7. LIP

    and with a little luck, we will take back the Senate as well and the insanity will stop. Then, two years from now we will toss the radical left wing nut out of the White House, unless of course he does what Bill Clinton did and move to the center where he should have been from the beginning.

    October 27, 2010 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm |
  8. Fair is Fair

    Confidential to Mr. Caprio, democratic contender for Governor of Rhode Island:

    Sir, you should be wiser than to tell Obama to take his endorsement and "shove it". Clearly, his head is in the way.

    October 27, 2010 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |
  9. Larry

    My guess is certainly as good as Cooks

    I predict the Democrats gain seats and kick the Republicans butt !!!

    October 27, 2010 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |
  10. keepstufingthis

    Good news indeedy. Shove it back in the SEIU's face. They won't be able to steal as many as they did in 2008.

    October 27, 2010 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm |
  11. ConstitutionalPatriot

    Great news! The first step is to get the republicans in control of the house and stop the Obama agenda dead in it's tracks. Second we must balance the power so that neither side can get much done since the neocons and nutjob liberals have absolutely nothing to bring to the debate but failed policies and ideological foolishness. America please do not give the neocons or liberals both houses a divided congress is deadlocked which is better than the so called progress the establishment touts. Finally I would like to see an end to these two parties that are destroying our country or least have them marginalized by a common sense party based on libertarian principles. The answer is neither left nor right but in the middle. The middle is the constitution, true constitutionalists take positions based the law and not emotion. A constitutionalist rejects mixing religion with governance, rejects any discrimination whatsoever like dadt, and is anti war. The anti war left has disssolved like suddenly it doesn't matter.

    October 27, 2010 12:17 pm at 12:17 pm |
  12. Sam Sixpack

    Just about time for the shameless shill "news" services to switch colors.

    October 27, 2010 12:21 pm at 12:21 pm |
  13. ConstitutionalPatriot

    Someone has to end the wars and as i stated the anti war left dissolved once Obama got in. We constitutionalists opposed these wars and still do because we should not be there and we did it illegally. You don't go to war without a declaration of war. Our congress is so cowardly save for Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich that they don't have the decency or guts to declare war if they are going to send our best off to fight and die. These men and women are being shot at and our congress is scared of a vote? This country is at a crossroads. We either realize we cannot sustain this entitlement system and global military empire and make the necessary changes and embrace the solutions found in our constitution or we continue with the blinders on and wake up one day with dollars that won't buy anything and alot of unpaid bills and angry nations like China to deal with. The info is out there either be a part of the solution or continue with this charade. Wake up America!

    October 27, 2010 12:26 pm at 12:26 pm |
  14. Joey

    I wouldn't vote for a Republican at all. They are just the very people who have made all our lives miserable. I'm not thrilled with dems...but I would sooner have the dems in than those idiots called Republicans. PS: I am no longer a registered Republican. I don't like their EXTREMIST and ELITE CONDESCENDING ATTITUDES! Please don't forget that BUSH, that Jerk put us in this hole of a mess and his cronnies.

    October 27, 2010 12:28 pm at 12:28 pm |
  15. Peace

    I beg to differ with these two political handicappers views. I suspects this election results are going to give a big surprise to a lot of people. Here is why:
    a) most of the majority are using cellular phones and polling only those at home can not give the results intended.
    b) GOP approval rating is just only 24%. How can they pull out all these seats
    c) majority are well informed of what is going on through different means, compare and contrast will be taken into account by many, not like in the past elections
    d) even if the polls are correct right now, if the ground work is poor in one side, the anticipated results will look differently.

    October 27, 2010 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm |
  16. diridi

    I do not give darn hoot at these predictions, but I voted for Dems....straight Dem. Ticket....this time...I shall vote for pres. Obama...period...

    October 27, 2010 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm |
  17. Kanoodle

    The problem is not President Obama. The problem is the American people. Because Obama could not boost job growth in 20 months, the American people are going back to the corrupt and Corporate shill Republican party. It is amazing to see thow spiteful and selfish people can be. Remember America, the Republicans are in it for themselves and the corporations they work for. Do you not remember 8 years prior to President Obama. Do you realize how close you were to fthe inancial collapse of your country. It is just stunning how Americans think. It is so easy for republicans to brainwash the American people. It is so easy for the republicans to instill fear and paranoia in the American people
    America, you need to start thinking for yourselves

    October 27, 2010 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  18. GOP Scorched Earth Politics

    If anything the small population districts and sub-urbs that have traditionally voted Republican are just barely hanging-on. Also if you forecast into the future as the older population begins to fade away, the GOP is going to have serious issues trying to recruit younger voters. Don't get too arrogant there GOP clones.

    October 27, 2010 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  19. Sniffit

    "Its over democrats, its over!"

    Nothing's over. Dems will have the Senate and the veto pen and the GOP will have no choice but to actually do something for once instead of smugly sitting back to take the safe road of saying "no" to everything so they can blame everything on the Dems. The GOP will finally have to actually offer ideas and propose solutions...something they are not at all very good at. Instead, they will play games and attempt to re-institute the same-old-same-old crap they've been pushing for the 3 decades it took for us to get into this mess. When they propose their budget to defund most of the federal government, it will get vetoed because it's irresponsible and, based on Ryan's proposals, would screw SS and Medicare within a couple decades, causing payments to quickly shrink. The GOP has enjoyed 4 years of play time and now they will have to work...if they can even remember how...they continue to frack around at their own risk. Hint: 2 years of investigations and impeachment attempts to cover for them not actually doing anything won't cut the mustard this time.

    October 27, 2010 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  20. obama victim

    guess that "hope and change" just didn't work out

    October 27, 2010 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm |
  21. Fair is Fair

    Even Obama himself admitted that, quote, "I may not be on the ballot, but my agenda is".

    Well, Obama... your agenda is going to take one heck of a beating.

    October 27, 2010 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm |
  22. Sniffit

    "I suspects this election results are going to give a big surprise to a lot of people."

    So do the GOPers, which is why they've spent the past couple of months trying to lay the foundation for a massive public relations circus regarding and accusations and lawsuits claiming that pervasive voter fraud...illegals, dead people, multiple votes, etc...has been perpetrated upon any district in which a GOPer loses a tight race to a Dem, particularly if it's a district with a relatively large minority population. Don't expect many Dems who win as an underdog to be sworn in for several months...the GOP wants a delay during which they can force their cartoon budget thru the chamber.

    October 27, 2010 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  23. Keith Sillsbury

    Way too funny! I have a prediction also. I pre dict the republicans will loose all but two races. When will you people learn its the end of the republican party.

    October 27, 2010 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  24. Fair is Fair

    "Dems will have the Senate and the veto pen"

    But... but... but... just 2 years ago you were shilling that the GOP had been relegated to an insignificant regional party. Now you're settling for the veto pen and clinging to the senate by a thread. How the mighty have fallen.

    October 27, 2010 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  25. Sniffit

    "if you forecast into the future as the older population begins to fade away, the GOP is going to have serious issues trying to recruit younger voters."

    Have no fear...the Texas Board of Edumacation is hard at work fashioning a fix to that "problem."

    October 27, 2010 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
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