October 27th, 2010
11:40 AM ET
4 years ago

New prediction in battle for the House

Washington (CNN) - With six days to go until the midterm elections, one of the top non-partisan political handicappers is upping the prediction of how many seats the Republicans will win back in the House of Representatives.

The Cook Political Report Wednesday forecast a net gain of 48 to 60 seats for the Republicans, with higher gains possible. The GOP needs a net gain of 39 seats to win back control of the chamber from the Democrats, who have held the House and the Senate for the last four years.

"The midterm maelstrom pulling House Democrats under shows no signs of abating, if anything it has intensified. Whereas fewer than a third of Democratic Senate seats are up for election, House Democrats are suffering the full violence of this national undertow," says the Cook Political Report.

Another top non-partisan political handicapper, the Rothenberg Political Report, forecasts Republican gains of 45 to 55 seats, with an excess of 60 seats quite possible.

The largest midterm House loss for the president's party over the past half century came in 1994, when the GOP won back 52 seats to retake the House, and the Senate as well.

Twelve years later the Democrats won back control of the chamber with a net gain of 30 seats, as well as taking back the Senate.

Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @PsteinhauserCNN


Filed under: 2010
soundoff (61 Responses)
  1. Fair is Fair

    "The problem is not President Obama. The problem is the American people."

    BULL.

    American's ARE NOT stupid. Americans make mistakes, for sure... but our intelligence manifests itself in our ability to learn from them. Learning from them is one thing, and correcting them is another. We should all be thankful for the wisdom of the founders for giving us constitutionally mandated periodic elections as just the tool needed to correct those mistakes. 2010 is the first step in correcting the mistakes of 2006 and 2008.

    October 27, 2010 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  2. Sniffit

    "There are already report after report of democrat election fraud."

    Actually, no there isn't. There is accusation after accusation and nobody's finding any of it credible. In Illinois, the GOPers claimed something like 800-1000 cases of voter fraud and the officials who investigated found 47. FORTY SEVEN, 43 of which were felons who didn't know they couldn't vote because they were still on probation or some such and ONLY FOUR of which were double votes. Furthermore, the investigators did not make public HOW THOSE FOUR VOTED IN THE FIRST PLACE, so you can't even claim they were Dem voters. That 47 was 0.0006% of the total number of votes cast and, clearly, so beyond insignificant that you cannot rely on it as proof of pervasive voter fraud.

    On the other hand, we're hearing a lot about county officials reporting that there are numerous credible complaints coming in about Republican "voter integrity" poll watchers breaking all sorts of rules, like taking pictures of peoples' license plates at motor-voter stations and standing behind the registration desk (where they are not allowed to be), using cell phones to send information and take pictures (the cell phones are not allowed, period).

    It's going to be fun listening to the conservatives complain that the DOJ is prosecuting voter intimidation, but not voter fraud, because it is protecting minorities, etc. etc. It will be even more fun when Boehner and the GOPers in the House try to use their new found majority to call for investigations of the DOJ for just that reason, citing the Civil Rights Commission's conspiracy-theory-laden witch hunt against the DOJ for not prosecuting the entire New Black Panthers organization for the behavior of two individuals who actually did get in trouble.

    October 27, 2010 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm |
  3. Keith Sillsbury

    Yes you have to look at who's being polled. Dems( most)and independants don't have home phones. Only old people have home phones and they don't know enough to blame republican for this mess. 13 trillion was made last night. Corperate america wants you to believe that because they own the republicans and the tea bags but true AMERICANS hate both.

    October 27, 2010 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  4. Sniffit

    "But... but... but... just 2 years ago you were shilling that the GOP had been relegated to an insignificant regional party."

    Not I. Don't confuse the idiot nonsense the news sensationalizes with the actual positions of individuals.

    I do believe the GOP is on the track to destruction though, which is why they're throwing such a fit about voter fraud right now. They know exactly what the impending and inevitable demographic shifts portend...both in terms of the loss of white majority and the loss of the eldest current generation. Just ask the TX Board of Education...they're trying to remedy the latter situation through indoctrination efforts while the national "voter fraud" misinformation/demagoguery campaign and laws like AZ's that just got pooped on by the 9th circuit are meant to "remedy" rising minority populations. It'll become even more fun once the GOPers start trying to redistrict in a manner that marginalizes minorities in their states.

    October 27, 2010 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  5. roro

    It's painful to think that the American people are so stupid as to elect the very same people who got us into this mess. What is wrong with them? And you people from Louisiana, tell me you're not going to put Vitter the pig back into office! He's just one more family values hypocrite, who does just the thing he's preaching against. No one is perfect, but don't pontificate about how you uphold good Christian values and then turn around and disgrace yourself and your family. Your wife and
    children must be so proud. Y'all need to give the present administration a chance to get things turned around, and not go back to the corporate, big business as usual crapola.

    October 27, 2010 01:00 pm at 1:00 pm |
  6. AZ DEM

    Losing the House will probably be the best thing to happen for President Obama...he'll have to work with Boehner now as speaker and assuming the Senate stays close no legislation the GOP tries to pass will go through Congress without Dems signing off on it in the upper house so bipartisanship MUST occur because if it doesnt a government shutdown will occur and that will look bad on the GOP since they are in the majority. I hope the GOP takes a Senate majority as well so that everyone can see that the MINORITY party TRULY runs the Senate unless there is a super majority.

    October 27, 2010 01:00 pm at 1:00 pm |
  7. Chloe in Chatsworth, CA

    1. Promising tax cuts with no specific spending cuts while we're still funding two wars.
    2. Roll back financial regulation so banks, hedge funds and insurance companies can get back to the business of making serious money.
    3. Unlimited corporate spending in elections so oil companies can finally have a voice in our democracy.
    4. Keep gays and lesbians out of the military.
    5. ER room health care for people who can't afford insurance.
    6. (Christian) theocracy.
    7. Take away a woman's right to chose, even if she's thirteen and she was raped by her father.

    Who says Republicans don't have any new ideas?

    October 27, 2010 01:02 pm at 1:02 pm |
  8. Son of CSM.Wiggins

    Two words civil war is a a lot better than sitting under a republican congress

    October 27, 2010 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  9. Dean

    On Nov. 2, Nancy and Harry are also going to get a great big "Shove it".

    October 27, 2010 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  10. ellen

    Yes! We are so angry about the fact that Obama and the Dems gotten us OUT of the economic mess that we are going to replace them with the party that got us INTO the mess! Brilliant!

    Let's go back to a party that bails out Wall Street and doesn't care if we lose our health insurance and wants lower taxes on the rich, rather than keeping the party that has already lowered taxes on the other 95% of us. Brilliant!

    October 27, 2010 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  11. vic nashville tn

    Many small construction business owner (we call subcontractors) disappointed both party ignore them
    End of tax year after paying every thing they left with very small amount its worth it No
    They don’t export jobs they support our economy they lost confidence in our system

    Beginning of the year they had little hope now these polls show change of government they see this as uncertainty

    Election year usually media bring these issues to candidates attention

    Now days we don’t see this even in debates

    Politicians lost their dignity as well as media

    October 27, 2010 01:12 pm at 1:12 pm |
  12. jim

    Vic - So you trust the partisan CNN more than the non-partisan Cook Report? So you want an answer you prefer?

    October 27, 2010 01:14 pm at 1:14 pm |
  13. Mistress

    If the republoicans get any modicum of power we will see our country sink into the ooze. They are bereft if ideas and solutions, we will see them fritter away any opportunity to make good policy because they will be too busy trying to impeach Obama, a goal they have had since his first day in office.

    October 27, 2010 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
  14. independent

    Racism, the root of most of this evil.

    October 27, 2010 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  15. jsmith

    the democrats got everything they wanted in the last election and screwed it up for themselves. once again the american people see that GOP is the way to go

    October 27, 2010 01:20 pm at 1:20 pm |
  16. jim

    I am told that I am an extremist by believing in :

    Smaller government,do not need or want any hand outs from the government,strong national defense,less debt and pro business (call me crazy but does business not hire us all). Oh yea democrats be anti business and be sure to make the non competitive to international companies and see what happens to your job. Anti business are you crazy !!! .

    October 27, 2010 01:24 pm at 1:24 pm |
  17. elobogrande

    This 60+ year old, white registered republican, with a college education, will vote a straight Democrat ticket next Tuesday. If the corporate rethugs get any more power, I will point and laugh at the idiots that voted them in... as they cry about losing their jobs, cars, health insurance, and have to put grandma in some under staffed nursing home. They will be rewarded with lower wages and a longer wait for retirement benefits...if they get any retirement at all. The only reasoning? "look what they said about our bushie...stop Obama...we're mad....Beck said...you betcha"

    October 27, 2010 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  18. Gary

    Think again.

    October 27, 2010 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  19. Thersa

    The best democracy money can buy!

    October 27, 2010 01:28 pm at 1:28 pm |
  20. T'SAH from Virginia

    DON'T BELIEVE IT!!!! This is how the MEDIA/POLLS – which always LEAN to the RIGHT – is trying to suppress our votes!!!!

    GET OUT and VOTE because that is the ONLY way we can WIN!!!!

    ASK any Democrat that blogs here – HAVE YOU EVER BEEN POLLED???

    ASK any young person with CELL PHONES – HAVE YOU EVER BEEN POLLED????

    Come on NOW – Maybe in the RED STATE but not in the BLUE!!!!

    And on another NOTE – IF the RepubliCAN'Ts do take over – Never mind, I will NOT say it now – but you will hear it on November 3!!!!

    DEMOCRATS – Keep the BASE UNITED and VOTE November 2, 2010!!!!

    T'is T'SAH and I approve this message!!

    October 27, 2010 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |
  21. elobogrande

    If the republicans add a new revised Nazi gas chamber to their pledge, the illiterate lemmings will turn out in droves to vote them in.

    October 27, 2010 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  22. TOTAL FACT

    HIP HIP HURRAY ! Someday soon I hope the ignorance of the Obama administration and their followeres get this fact. "HEY WE'VE BEEN IN CHARGE FOR THE PAST SIX YEARS. AND WE'VE ACCOMPANLISHED NOTHING EXCEPT A TREMENDOUS DEBT THAT WE BLAME ON GEORGE JR. I GUESS IT JUST WON'T FLY NO MO." Lord help us we's outta here.

    October 27, 2010 01:39 pm at 1:39 pm |
  23. Kevin

    All of these polls are a joke, plus they are fixed to say what the sponsor of the survey wants to say. Look for the GOP to cry voter fraud, especially in the minority communities. The GOP know they can kiss the minority communities good-bye. Also their senate leader McConnell already said their goal is to make Obama a 1 term president. They don't give a dam about America.

    October 27, 2010 01:47 pm at 1:47 pm |
  24. ROBERT

    Surely the American people are smarter than to let the lies and fear mongering of the republicans get their vote. If not, I fear for the America as we know it.

    Please, Please don't put them back in the drivers seat.

    October 27, 2010 01:53 pm at 1:53 pm |
  25. Patty

    Pure Bull.
    I will be watching Fox News on election night. It is always fun to watch Fox have to name the DEMOCRATIC winners.

    October 27, 2010 01:54 pm at 1:54 pm |
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