Poll: Obama eight point advantage over Palin in '12 matchup
November 22nd, 2010
10:01 AM ET
8 years ago

Poll: Obama eight point advantage over Palin in '12 matchup

Washington (CNN) - President Barack Obama leads Sarah Palin by 8 percentage points in a hypothetical 2012 general election matchup, according to a new national poll.

But a Quinnipiac University survey also indicates that a plurality of Americans don't think Obama deserves to be re-elected to a second term in the White House.

Forty-nine percent of people questioned in the poll, which was released Monday, say that the president does not deserve to be re-elected, with 43 percent saying he does deserve a second term and nine percent unsure.

An Associated Press-GfK survey released 11 days ago indicated that 54 percent thought Obama should be voted out of office in 2012, with 39 percent saying the president deserves to be re-elected, and nine percent unsure. The AP-GfK survey was conducted November 3-8, in the days immediately after major Republican victories in the midterm elections.

According to the Quinnipiac poll, Republicans by a 92 to 4 margin and independents by a 51 to 35 margin don't think Obama deserves to be re-elected, with more than eight in ten Democrats saying that the president does deserve a second term.

"The Democratic base remains squarely behind President Barack Obama when it comes to his re-election, but his weakness among independent voters at this point makes his 2012 election prospects uncertain," says Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The demographic splits in the electorate when voters are asked whether the president deserves a second term is a roadmap for his re-election strategists on how they need to focus their appeal. Only 39 percent of men, 34 percent of whites, 35 percent of political independents and 38 percent of those over age 35 think he deserves four more years in the Oval Office," adds Brown.

According to the poll, Obama has a 48 to 40 advantage over Palin in a hypothetical general election matchup. The president also held an 8-point advantage, 52 to 44 percent, over the former Alaska governor in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation released two weeks ago.

The Quinnipiac survey indicates that Obama has a 44 to 37 percent advantage over Palin among independent voters.

According to the poll, hypothetical matchups between the president other possible 2012 GOP presidential contenders have closer margins. Former Massachusetts Gov. and 2008 Republican presidential candidate received 45 percent to 44 percent for Obama, while the president has 46 percent to 44 percent for former Arkansas Gov. and 2008 GOP presidential contender Mike Huckabee. Obama leads Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels 45 to 36 percent.

"At this point, former Alaska Gov. Palin runs the worst against President Obama. Daniels is essentially a generic Republican because of his anonymity to most voters. Obama only gets 45 percent against him while he gets 48 percent against Ms. Palin," said Brown. "She is very unpopular among independents and although she recently said she thought she could defeat Obama, the data does not now necessarily support that assertion."

According to the survey, Romney, Huckabee, Palin and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are bunched together when Republican voters are asked who they prefer for the GOP's 2012 presidential nomination. Other recent polls from CNN/ORC and Gallup have similar results.

To be fair, polls at this stage in the next cycle are heavily influenced by name recognition and popularity.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted November 8-15, with 2,424 registered voters nationwide questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus two percentage points.

Check out CNN's new Polling Center, which provides the most comprehensive polling data of any news organization in the political landscape.

Filed under: 2012 • Polls • President Obama • Sarah Palin
soundoff (52 Responses)
  1. Sam Sixpack

    Not setting the bar very high this morning.

    November 22, 2010 10:08 am at 10:08 am |
  2. Lawrence

    The Republican options for a nomination UGH!!!

    November 22, 2010 10:11 am at 10:11 am |
  3. Clwyd

    The dumbing down of America and Americans continues. How sarah could even got 1% of the vote is beyond me as she has had no experience except for being a professional quitter! Americans, you are growing more stupid each election!

    November 22, 2010 10:15 am at 10:15 am |
  4. diridi

    if this wicked lady is our next president, i better move somewhere....o.k, because she is stupid, so are public...no wonder, Obama is concentrating on Education....we need to educate Americans, in rural area....they are dumb...or provide them computers....or at least access....do not give hoot to Fox news...bunch of idiots...

    November 22, 2010 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  5. Ben in Texas

    A plurality of Americans don't think Obama deserves to be re-elected. An overwhelming majority of Americans roll on the floor laughing when asked if Sarah Palin deserves to be elected to any office.

    It's funny how different the world is from what I was taught. The message I got as a kid was that if you had brains, applied yourself, and worked hard, you could become a productive person and a worthy American. Maybe even become a leader, and maybe even the president.

    However, it turns out that if you are born rich, into a political family, you don't need to work hard or have a brain (Bush). If you are cute, snarky, and fate thrusts you into the limelight (Palin), you can get enough press coverage to consider a run for the presidency, despite the fact that you have no conception of what America is all about, much less any leadership skills.

    I like the way I was taught better than the way it turns out things actually are. I'll always choose the candidate based on merit, although the political parties don't always give me much to choose from.

    November 22, 2010 10:19 am at 10:19 am |
  6. Lone Rider

    You have got to be kidding me, 8 points is all Obama can muster over Palin. Oh great !!!

    November 22, 2010 10:19 am at 10:19 am |
  7. kakaraka

    Polll, polll. poll. Here we go again. Pundits said crazy angle sharron is leading Henry Reid and would defeat him. WHat happen? These pundits only have eyes to cry. That never happened. How can you generalize a biased opinion of 1000 people in the name of millions people. You just don't get it. President Obama wil be re-elected easily since Republicans in the house would share some responsibilities about the mess they have created in the first place. IF they continue to say no to the policiies intended to clean up their mess, then american people would judge based on that.

    November 22, 2010 10:22 am at 10:22 am |
  8. kyle

    These polls are dumb, we are comparing someone who is trying to fix the economy to someone who is out just to gain personal wealth.

    November 22, 2010 10:22 am at 10:22 am |
  9. T'sah from Virginia

    All I can say is BRING IT ON w/the PA'IN and anyone else!!!

    Beginning January 1, 2011, I will count the polls CNN does from that day to Election Day and keep scores. This will PROVE how the media "subliminally" suggest who they feel WINNERS should be and how it WORKS on the MINDS of people!!!

    President Obama is our current leader and he will continue to MOVE AMERICA FORWARD – not BACKWARDS!!

    November 22, 2010 10:23 am at 10:23 am |
  10. John

    If Saran Palin Is the best the REPUBLICAN Party got they are going to lose big. I'm a REPUBLICAN but I will not vote for Saran Palin ,she is a IDIOT she spread hate and racist

    November 22, 2010 10:23 am at 10:23 am |
  11. Marcus

    'Forty-nine percent of people questioned in the poll (...) say that the president does not deserve to be re-elected, with 43 percent saying he does deserve a second term and nine percent unsure.'
    As this poll shows, there's still a lot of work to do in order to stop the 24/7 smear campaign by the GOP to be as successful as it was during this midterm elections.

    November 22, 2010 10:25 am at 10:25 am |
  12. Ray E. (Georgia)

    It's a bit early to be making odds on the 2012 Presidential Election. BUT, if Obama wants to help himself to a second term he needs to keep the Bush Tax cuts for those making over $2000,000.00 for ten years at least and let the Bush Tax cuts for those making less than $200,000.00 expire so those receving all those Government Benefits start paying for them.

    Extending the Top Tax Rates may allow Business to hire another worker or two, Ending them may get a worker or two laid off. Think Carefully!

    November 22, 2010 10:25 am at 10:25 am |
  13. TangledThorns

    Month by month America is learning that Sarah Palin will make a great president. Say bye bye to Obama in 2012.

    November 22, 2010 10:26 am at 10:26 am |
  14. Take America Back from the Libs

    Let me get this straight; All Libs think Sarah Palin is ignorant, unattractive, unelectable, dingy, evil, mean, (have I left anything out) but the truth is All Libs spend most of their time and treasury trying their best to discredit her.........now if what All Libs say is true......why do they bother? If it wasn't for Sarah Palin, CNN would be forced to put over 100 employees and contributors on the very long (and getting longer) Obambi unemployment lines!

    November 22, 2010 10:27 am at 10:27 am |
  15. Brendan H., San Antonio, TX

    ONLY 8 POINTS?!?!?!?

    The American electorate is functionally illiterate and "dumb" but they can't be that stupid......can they?!

    November 22, 2010 10:28 am at 10:28 am |
  16. Marry

    Dear CNN, this kind of article is absolutely useless. You are really in love with Palin/TP and polls aren’t you! Sorry, CNN, but MANY of your clientele is getting pretty tired of these fantasies and your reputation as a serious NEWS NETWORK is going “foxy” and down the drain fast. But I am sure, you have noticed that. Question: Do you want that? If yes, just tell us and we can save ourselves the trouble to go to CNN when looking for responsible and relevant information. If not, just stop this silliness! There are many more important things to report on!

    November 22, 2010 10:32 am at 10:32 am |
  17. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    I'm surprised that she is listed that close to Obama. She has no understanding of policy or what America needs. I have a better understanding of how Washington works. She has none.

    November 22, 2010 10:32 am at 10:32 am |
  18. ABM

    Only 8 points????!!!!!!????? Are you kidding me America? Do you need to have your heads checked? Considering what I just read I think there should be a metal faculty test before anyone votes again.

    Ms. P should be TROUNCED by Obama everyday. End of Story. I would push to have his term limit extend if Ms. P tries to go for the White House in 2016.

    November 22, 2010 10:33 am at 10:33 am |
  19. 2012?

    Because nothing can change in 2 years, right? What a waste of time and effort to do these stupid polls.

    November 22, 2010 10:34 am at 10:34 am |
  20. Sammy Z

    You know what? I don't think anyone deserves to be elected to a second term. I really don't care who it is.

    "None – They all suck!" needs to be added to the ballot.

    November 22, 2010 10:43 am at 10:43 am |
  21. Danny

    Don't let Palin anywhere near a witehouse run. How can you put some in the position to run for president whe she could not even complete a term as Governor. Lets go Romney/Huckbee and kick this bum called Obama out of the whitehouse

    November 22, 2010 10:43 am at 10:43 am |
  22. bill

    I know that the party has a much better candidate. No McCain or Palin. No hard core right wing candidate..

    November 22, 2010 10:46 am at 10:46 am |
  23. Dutch/Bad Newz, VA

    Sarah Palin will never be POTUS. And all of these polls are nonsense.

    November 22, 2010 10:46 am at 10:46 am |
  24. Sick and tired of bullies running the show

    How stupid can our country get? The Republicans have blocked everything the president has tried to do – THEY are the ones who should have been booted out of office this year! All Republicans do is whine and complain, lie, spread fear and hate – and OFFER NO NEW IDEAS!

    All Republicans want to do is cut taxes for the wealthy – even when after 10 years of the Bush tax cuts, these same wealthy have NOT created jobs here at home.

    If our country doesn't give President Obama a second term, we deserve to go to hell in handbasket!

    November 22, 2010 10:47 am at 10:47 am |
  25. Sick and tired of bullies running the show

    Warren Buffet, the third wealthiest person IN THE WORLD, today said that the wealthy in our country should be paying much more in taxes.

    He also said that cutting taxes for the top 2% wage earners does NOT result in job creation here in the United States, and cited the fact that it hasn't happened in the 10 years of the Bush tax cuts as proof.

    And still people are buying into the Republican lie ... what a nation of idiots we have become that we would even consider someone as stupid as Palin to lead us!

    November 22, 2010 10:50 am at 10:50 am |
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