Washington (CNN) - It's one of the storylines for 2012: Can the Democrats win back control of the House of Representatives?
A new poll suggests that they may have a chance.
According to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday, the Democrats have a four-point margin over the Republicans in the battle for control of Congress. The poll indicates that 50 percent registered voters say if the election for Congress was held today, they would vote for the Democrat in their district, with 46 percent saying they would cast a ballot for the Republican in their district. The Democrats' four-point margin is within the poll's sampling error.
The GOP won 63 seats in last year's midterm elections, taking back control of the House for the first time in four years. CNN's last poll conducted before the midterms indicated the Republicans had a six-point advantage over the Democrats.
GOP victories in 2010 were due to some major historical shifts. More women voted for Republican candidates than Democratic candidates in 2010 for the first time since exit polling began in the early 1970s. Voters who never attended college - generally considered to be the bulk of the blue-collar vote - voted Republican in House races for the first time since 1994. And 56 percent of independents voted Republican in 2010, the highest that figure has ever been in exit polls.
"Now the Democrats are seeing some of their natural constituencies coming home," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "In the latest generic ballot, Democrats have a ten-point lead among women, and a nine-point lead among voters who never attended college. But the Republicans still have a plurality of the Independent voters, 47 percent to 43 percent."
The poll also indicates a geographic split that may favor the Democrats, with Democratic candidates pulling a majority in the Northeast, Midwest and West. Republicans win a majority in the generic ballot only in the South.
"It's far too early to use these results to accurately forecast the 2012 congressional elections," Holland notes. "But it does indicate that some of the shifts that swept the GOP into power in 2010 may be shifting back."
The generic ballot question asks respondents if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district, without naming any specific candidates. It's used by many polling organizations, including CNN/Opinion Research Corporation surveys.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted April 29-May 1, with 1,034 adults questioned by telephone. All interviews were completed before news of Osama bin Laden's death was reported. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.
- CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.
From CNN Politics
© 2011 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
| Advertising practices | Advertise with us | About us | Contact us | Work for us | Help
Is this a wishfull thinking poll?
Don't be surprised by this poll. I'm not. The GOTP pulled a sucker punch on the American voters in 2010. There are some who vote Republican no matter what stands the candidate takes. The Republican Party has committed an "error in judgement" by thinking that just because they were handed a majority in the House that that represented a blank check to advance their very intrusive social agendas.
They have grossly overplayed their hand, and are too self-assured to realize it. America sees that, too. America sees a party that has no regard for actually solving the nation's problems. They see a party that still continues to push for capitalist imperialism. A practice when taken to the extreme means you have only one type of export, capitial. Sound familiar?
Not saying I agree or disagree with this article – But I don't believe polls any longer. Too many people with cell phones as their primary numbers are not reached. Polls are outdated.
It will happen "No doubt about it ! The Gop/TP has lost the respect of probably about 75% of 40 and older? I like the guy in the teaparty "Colonial Patriot Suit Saying " Hear Ye-Hear-Ye " We Need To "Strip All Entitlements From All Peasants, Give to Corporate America,Crash the Finacial World!!!!! HEAR-_YE?????? Nuts, or What???
They ran on job creation. Then worked on defunding planned parenthood. The ran on job creation then worked on defunding NPR. They ran on job creation, then voted to privatize medicare. They ran on jobs then hired attorneys to defend doma. They ran on job creation.
Where are the jobs jobs jobs, repugs have been
In office this long, and refuge to come up with a single jobs bill. They are set on taking money away from the spenders,'who creates demand and jobs, and give it to the rich, who take the money and invest in china to keep building china's economy, without spending money, big businesses will find demand over seas.
Personally, I would just LOVE witnessing the shock to Boehner's ego, being kicked out as speaker almost immediately. THAT would be hilarious.
@RudyNYC – I REALLY, REALLY hope you are right!!
Regardless of which party controls the House, the Senate, or the White House, tackling the expenditures of the big three should be the greatest priority for any and everyone concerned or the US government is destined to default in the near future.
NY-26 is up for grabs. That shows how much of bad shape the republicans are in for 2012.
What's to argue in this poll. American's wanted jobs and instead got anti-abortion. I don't suppose wanting to gut medicare and privatize Social Security helps. Anymore than Ryan's other little Budget tidbit of wanting to give the upper 2%ers ANOTHER tax cut, above and beyond what they have already been given. Looks as if GOPerville voodoo trickle down economic stimulating tax cuts took another Corporate U-Turn and and found it's way trickling back up the corporate ladder. Without the promised (and much anticipated) new jobs. Perhaps during HIS campaign for President stint, Mr. Huntsman can give a speech highlighting China's socialistic economic growth, and the outsourcing of American jobs which promoted such growth?
GOP where are the jobs? Tax breaks for wealthy while Medicare is dismantled is not what we signed up for.
I really don't trust the supposed unbiased CNN Poll too many samples done in California and New York and not Texas or Pennsylvania. Also the 2010 Census is highly unfavorable to Democrats, they lose some 22 seats, another sign that people won't vote the Dems back into power for atleast another Census changes things again! Also, These very same polls that give the Democrats the House will cancel each other out by giving the GOP the Senate due to the massive number of Democrats that are up for Re-election next year compared to the small number of GOP'ers up for election.
Too many people with cell phones as their primary numbers are not reached. Polls are outdated.
-------------------------------------------------–
Sounds like the GOP has lost the old folks too then. Granny will probably hang up her land line on the next GOP robocall telling her where to goto cast her ballot for the "Country First Contract on America " Rethugs.
Of COURSE the Democrats have a chance, and a might good chance, to win back the House. The tea party republican House has not offered anything substantive or concrete this session, and the American voter, however seemingly unaware, has seen through their pathetic, reactionary and ultra-conservative rhetoric.
The Republican and the Tea Party only think about their Rich and Big Business Friends. They don't care about the American people that can't put money In there pocket. Case In point John Boehner say everything was on the table except rising taxes on people making over 250,000 a year. Even rising Taxes would be the best thing to do, to get money coming Into the GOVERNMENT. But he willing to cut anything from the Middle Class, the POOR and the OLD. And the program he want to cut , these people have pay INTO IT all There LIVE. I started working when I was 16 years old , so as of right now I have pay Into It for 40 years. If the Government didn't borrow from these Program and would have pay It back , these Program wouldn't be needing any Federal money. They are Millions of people right now In my age group that feel they same way as I do. The Republican and the TEA Party people are playing with a lot of voter. I think we need to get as many Republican and Tea Party people OUT of the HOUSE and Senate as we can , and that mean you to MR. Boehner. OBAMA 2012.
@ Rudy NYC
I couldnt have said it better... you are spot on..
TheGOP ran on false promises of fixing the economy and creating jobs, when not ONE measure was produced by Repub's to do so. They instead sought to undo anything Obama proposed, wether or not it helped people. The Americans are going to realize NOBODY is going to create jobs for the uneducated, un-degreed or unskilled people, but real Americans are retraining themselves and going back to school so jobs come to US. THE Tea Party are as cool as pagers and fanny packs.
Meh...this is likely to fluctuate wildly over the next 18 months and is within the sampling error. Heartening, but not super good news...yet.
My concern is, how the GOP's decision to not give the cost of living raises. I do not feel the Republican party cares about the low income groups. It is hard to pay for things that have skyrocketed in price. A one party system seems better than all of the bickering among uncaring Republicans to keep the poor man poorer. I'm 69 yrs. old and I've never felt this way before until now, you've shown partiality instead of being for the American people.
A woman voting for a republican is like a chicken voting for Colonel Sanders!! I am seeing a lot of voters' remorse from the 2010 election.
Yes We Can! We can take back the House, and continue control over the Senate and Presidency.
Voters had a taste of the bitter tea and even experienced what a Teahadist nation would be like. They have now woke up and are rejecting the GOP/Teahadist Shangrala!
Thank you, Teahadists for waking up the sleeping giant-–the Middle-Class. We will take our country back. Bye, Bye Boehner!
LovesIrony wrote:
They ran on job creation. Then worked on defunding planned parenthood. The ran on job creation then worked on defunding NPR. They ran on job creation, then voted to privatize medicare. They ran on jobs then hired attorneys to defend doma. They ran on job creation.
--------------------
See what I mean. Sucker Punched!
Ask yourself, if you vote them in again, what should I expect. Before you answer that go back and look at Republican practices when they retake the House or the Senate.
one thing I have found about polls, people only like them if they happen to agree with the results. Those who don't agree with this poll more than likely will blast it, the others that do will heap praise on it.
Totally agree this poll is a joke , Methodology by CNN polls is so outdated GOP will keep control of the house and take the Senate back . Dems just had to large of numbers for to long the pendulum is swinging back.
The 2010 midterms was just a fluke of disastrous proportions. The voter turnout was very small and it was mostly the older votes that the GOP managed to spook once again. Some of the Dems who voted thought they would send a message to the Dems by voting in the GOP (not a good way to send a message since you're voting against your best interest). At any rate, I do believe that people have seen the light and realize that Repubs are still playing their same old games and any more power given to them would be the end of the middle class which is the backbone of our great country. Can't wait till 2012 to get the DEMS back in the House as they will certainly maintain the Senate & White House (GO OBAMA!!)
They run on Jobs and the minute the controlled the house, the only thing they are interested on is giving more tax cut for the wealthy and killing Grandma by turning Medicare into a vouchere program.
rosaadriana
GOP where are the jobs?
_____________________________________________________________________________________
Rosaadriana, where is your newspaper, your TV and your internet? Your radio? Latest report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 244,000 in April, and the private sector added 268,000 jobs. Employment rose in a number of service-providing industries, manufacturing, and mining. Since a recent low in February 2010, total payroll employment has grown by 1.8 million. Private sector employment has increased by 2.1 million over the same period.
Thank you American voters for your wise choices in 2010.
Can the sight of a certain speaker of the house blubbering be far behind?
This poll is a joke. I cannot believe that CNN would even do this. It is totally devoid of issues and reason.
Dave H., WHAT? Where the heck have you been man, oh, let me guess, over at Fox? Just one more Republican trying to rewrite history.
Too bad the truth seems to have a Liberal bias.
"Thank you American voters for your wise choices in 2010."
And yet, unemployment still sits at 9%.
The only way Dems re-take the house is if they don't say what they will do if elected. Just like in 2006 and 2008 the Dems never revealed their real plans, in the immortal words of Nancy pelosi "We have to pass the bill so you can see whats in it" Well we now see whats in it and what the Dems did for 4 years. They took a very real financial crisis and rammed through every liberal pipe dream the public didn't like with disasterous consequences to the future of the country. And where is nancy Pelosi now?...well deserved obscurity.
The republicans have been in controll of the House only for 4 months and jobs are starting to recover. The President and the Dems are suddenly deficit hawks who with the help of their friends in the media want you to forget their huge spending and failed economic policies of the past. Luckily most Americans can get information away from the traditional liberal media and won't fall for the spin.
Nov. 2012 can't come fast enough.
This isn't a particularly surprising poll. Even FOX polls show congress with a 75% disapproval rating. The tea party isn't winning the repubs a lot of fans – and it is costing them a lot of their former constituency.
dont bet on it... one thing for sure they need to dump nit wit nancy... she is one of the reason they lost so bad last election..
PalmReader
And yet, unemployment still sits at 9%.
______________________________________________________________
The employment growth in April was the biggest hiring spree in five years, which was reflected a variety of sectors, including retailing, manufacturing, finance and construction. However, the federal, state and local governments cut jobs.
...which is the mandate Republicans were sent to Washington with. Again, a win for the American voters.
Palm – No president is a miracle worker. When the country is spiraling down, there is nothing a president or congress can do to immediately reverse that course. Signs that the course of the repression has changed are all good – but you can't expects that anyone could pull us out of the financial disaster we were experiencing without some bumps and bruises. It's ludicrous. Do you REMEMBER where we were 18 months ago? Banks failing, mortgage market crashing, market plunging, mass layoffs....
Why take a poll that essentially asks "Who do you like?". Totally useless
Jobs aren't recovering because of congress – that is completely ridiculous! Name ONE jobs bill the republican congress has presented – even ONE! They HAVEN'T!
Much too soon to read anything of substance in these polls, but history suggests that the Republicans will lose some House seats in 2012. Whether it will be enough (25) for the Democrats to take back the House will depend on a number of things. First and foremost the state of the economy. The Presidential race also will have a major impact, both in the size and nature of the electorate. Coattails also matter, and if Obama is polling high against the Republican opponent, that could sway House contests, especially in swing districts. Countering that trend, as other bloggers have wisely pointed out, will be the impact of congressional redistricting based on the 2010 Census. Conversely, redistricting can be somewhat unpredictable in the aggrate as well. For exanple, many of the seats that have shifted to sunbelt states are the result of dramatic growth in the Hispanic population, who traditionally tend to support democrats. Finally, a lot will depend on budget debates playing out in coming months. If, God forbid, there is a serious miscalculation by the Republicans with respect to the debt ceiling and another great recession, or far worst, is the result, all bets are off.
The Republicans have accomplished absolutely nothing since taking over the majority in the House of Representatives. They are still presenting themselves as uncompromising, narrow-minded zealots with little or no understanding of what the average American family needs. Their only goal is to remove President Obama from office when they should be concerned about the jobs report. Where are the jobs, Mr Boehner? Where are the jobs, Mr. Cantor? Where are the jobs, Mr. McConnell?
Buyer's remorse of epic proportions. As usual they ran the old bait-and-switch..."jobs jobs jobs" "abortion, NPR, DOMA"
Not only do they have a chance but it is going to happen. People are starting to realize how much damage these Republicans, who were recently elected, are doing to the country in general. I recently attended a function with people from 3 different states and all of them were saying how much their state is suffereing because of the Republicans who just assumed power. Until Republicans realize that they have to tax the rich and stop trying to take away from the poor and middle class, they are going nowhere.