CNN Poll: Perry still at top but Romney stronger vs. Obama
September 26th, 2011
12:01 PM ET
3 years ago

CNN Poll: Perry still at top but Romney stronger vs. Obama

Washington (CNN) - Despite his performances in the two most recent Republican presidential debates, a new national survey indicates that Texas Gov. Rick Perry remains on top of the field in the race for the GOP nomination.

But a CNN/ORC International Poll also indicates that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney does better than Perry in hypothetical 2012 general election matchups against President Barack Obama and matches evenly with the president on the issues and on personal characteristics.

According to the survey, which was released Monday, 28 percent of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say they support Perry as their party's presidential nominee, with Romney at 21 percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is at ten percent, with Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who's making his third bid for the White House, former Godfather's Pizza CEO and radio talk show host Herman Cain, and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, all at seven percent. The poll indicates that Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota is at four percent, with former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at three percent and former Utah Gov. and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at one percent.

Palin has flirted with a bid for the GOP nomination, but the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee has not taken any concrete steps towards launching a campaign. Taking Palin out of the mix produces a similar result: 30 percent for Perry, 22 percent for Romney, 11 percent for Gingrich, and all other candidates in single digits.

The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, after last Thursday's debate in Orlando, Florida. Pundits and analysts rate Perry's performance in that debate, and in a debate one a week and a half earlier in Tampa, Florida, as uneven. Perry's distant second showing at a much-watched straw poll of Florida GOP activists this past weekend may be a reflection of his debate performances, and his stance on illegal immigration and border security, which were spotlighted in both debates.

"Did Perry's performance in the most recent debate affect the horse race? Maybe yes, but maybe no," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Perry's support is down just two points, and Romney is up only one to three points - and since all those numbers are well within the sampling error, it doesn't look like much has changed, possibly because average voters aren't as plugged into the debates as political junkies are. If the debates have had an effect, it may be mostly in favor of Gingrich, whose support went from 5 percent in mid-September to 10 percent now."

According to the poll, the president's overall approval rating, at 45 percent, is essentially unchanged since July. Fifty-two percent of all Americans disapprove of his job performance to date.

The 2012 election will not be an up-or-down vote on Obama, but rather a choice between the president and another candidate, so head-to-head match-ups against the top GOP candidates are a better test of Obama's electoral strength.

The survey indicates that Romney fares best against Obama. It's basically all tied up with 49 percent for Obama and 48 percent for Romney in a hypothetical two-way match-up. According to the poll, Obama holds a five point margin over Perry, 51 percent to 46 percent.

In a hypothetical matchup between Paul and Obama, the president holds a four point margin, 51 percent to 47 percent. Obama handily beats Bachmann and Palin in two-way match-ups. But keep in mind, as always, that polls taken more than a year before the election have little or no predictive value.

Obama's ace-in-the-hole remains the fact that he is personally more popular than his policies. According to the poll, his favorable rating, which measures reactions to him personally, is eight points higher than his job approval rating. Fifty-two percent of all Americans disagree with him on issues, but 58 percent believe he has the personality and leadership qualities a president should have. And by a 49 to 43 percent margin, Americans say that personal qualities are more important than issues to their vote for president.

Only Romney matches up well with Obama on both of those measures. Six in ten Americans say Romney has the personal qualities a president should have, compared to only 45 percent who feel that way about Perry.

Forty-six percent of Americans agree with Romney on issues. "That doesn't sound like much, but it's far better than the 39 percent who say they agree with Perry. That 46 percent is also ten points higher than the number who agreed with Romney in his first run for the White House in 2008," adds Holland.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from September 23-25, with 1,010 adult Americans, including 447 Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

– CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

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Santorum: 'I condemn' booing of gay soldier, didn't hear it


Filed under: 2012 • CNN poll • Mitt Romney • Polls • Rick Perry
soundoff (187 Responses)
  1. Cody

    These candidates dont even have the guts to confront a small crowd of people that are disrespecting a soldier that is willing to sacrifice his life for them. How can we expect them to confront local/national/global problems?

    Obama had to do it for them.

    September 26, 2011 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  2. PosterC

    Too bad no one ever mentions Jon Huntsman. Best candidate in the bunch.

    September 26, 2011 02:38 pm at 2:38 pm |
  3. native new yorker

    "[Romney] matches evenly with the president on the issues and on personal characteristics"
    And that's supposed to be GOOD? Wow, how the spin changes depending on who you're talking about.

    September 26, 2011 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  4. Jerry

    If Perry gets the nomination he cannot beat Obama. He's too dumb!

    September 26, 2011 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  5. NorCalMojo

    I love watching CNN pundits try to figure out the other side. It really is hilarious.

    Just go back to calling them names. It's what you're good at.

    September 26, 2011 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  6. KellyinBoston

    Again, definitely NOT a Romney supporter–But someone on this site referred to him as a "career politician". He actually was co-founder of Bain Capital (a hugely successful private equity firm) for a large number of years–That's where he spent the bulk of his adult life. He worked on the Winter Olympics in Utah, then became governor of MA for one term. I don't like his politics, but referring to him as a "career politician" is not accurate.

    September 26, 2011 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  7. Walter

    Perry is a fake and dangerous to America...why are Republicans so quickly fooled?

    September 26, 2011 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  8. The King

    Obama will crush perry in a landslide...he'll crush romney in a slighly smaller landslide. Now, lets flush the teabaggers and fix this economy!!

    September 26, 2011 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  9. sarah

    We all know Perry is a complete idiot. Where's RON PAUL

    September 26, 2011 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  10. Tax the rich

    Obama will be relected no matter who runs against him.

    September 26, 2011 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  11. joe smith

    follow the money..those who throw the money in will control the next occupant of the White House..last time, the teamsters, teachers unions, AFL, all contributed heavily to Obama..should this trend continue,the republican/democrat of choice to receive the money will win..don't forget China has an interest here to, and a big one at that..

    September 26, 2011 02:40 pm at 2:40 pm |
  12. ringosdad

    I was reading along, partially buying into the analysis until the author wrote this line..."The 2012 election will not be an up-or-down vote on Obama, but rather a choice between the president and another candidate, so head-to-head match-ups against the top GOP candidates are a better test of Obama's electoral strength." Now, I voted for Obama, I even donated! But this IS an" up-or-down vote on Obama' and it's decidedly a THUMBS-DOWN! He stands NO CHANCE against a Romney or any "sane" candidate (that eliminates Perry, Bachmann and if she enters Palin).

    September 26, 2011 02:41 pm at 2:41 pm |
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