New polls on 2012 battles in Ohio & Pennsylvania
September 28th, 2011
09:06 AM ET
3 years ago

New polls on 2012 battles in Ohio & Pennsylvania

(CNN) - New polls in Ohio and Pennsylvania indicate that President Barack Obama has his work cut out for him to keep the two key battleground states in the Democratic column in next year's presidential election.

According to a Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday morning, 53 percent of Ohio voters disapprove of the job the president's doing in office, with 42 percent saying they approve of how Obama's handling his duties. The 42 percent approval rating matches the president's all-time low in Quinnipiac polling for Ohio. The survey also indicates that by a 51 to 43 percent margin, Buckeye State voters say the president doesn't deserve to be re-elected in 2012.

In hypothetical general election matchups against the top two Republican presidential candidates, the poll indicates things are pretty much all tied up, with Obama holding a 44 to 41 percent margin over Texas Gov. Rick Perry and holding a 44 to 42 percent margin over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Both margins are within the poll's sampling error.

In a sign of just how important the state is to the White House, Obama and Vice President Joe Biden made four visits combined to the state this month, to lobby for the president's jobs package.

"Ohio is ground zero for the jobs debate," GOP strategist and CNN contributor Alex Castellanos said. "If the president is losing Ohio, he is not just losing a state; he is losing the debate on jobs."

Ohio's 18 electoral votes are expected to be pivotal to the 2012 presidential election. George W. Bush sealed his 2004 re-election by narrowly winning the state over Sen. John Kerry. In 2008, Obama and Biden took the state by five points. But the GOP won big in last year's midterm elections, taking back the governor's office and five House seats held by Democrats.

From 1976 through the 2004 election, Pennsylvania was an extremely contested state in presidential politics. Obama won the state by ten points over Sen. John McCain in the 2008 contest, but the Republicans stormed back in last year's midterm elections, winning back the governor's office, a U.S. Senate seat and five House seats held by Democrats.

A new Quinnipiac poll in the Keystone state indicates that by a 54 to 43 percent margin, Pennsylvania voters disapprove of the job Obama's doing in the White House, and by a 51 to 44 percent margin, they don't think he deserves a second term in office.

According to the survey, the president holds a 45 to 43 percent margin over Romney in a hypothetical general election matchup, with Obama holding a 45 to 42 percent margin over former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania. Both margins are within the poll's sampling error. Obama has a 46 to 40 percent advantage over Perry in the survey..

The Qunnipiac University poll in Pennsylvania was conducted September 21-26, with 1,370 registered voters questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

The Quinnpiac University poll in Ohio was conducted September 20-25, with 1,301 registered voters questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

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Filed under: 2012 • Ohio • Pennsylvania • President Obama
soundoff (52 Responses)
  1. Dean

    Obama's poll numbers will continue to recede for the next 12 months. He's be better off if he just shut up and sent Biden out to tell jokes instead.

    September 28, 2011 09:11 am at 9:11 am |
  2. Riley

    I don't know of a single person who plans to vote for Obama again.

    September 28, 2011 09:24 am at 9:24 am |
  3. NYC REPUB

    So he doesn't deserve re-election, but he's beating the current field in both states......go figure......Obama 2012!!!

    September 28, 2011 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  4. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    I'm not so much concerned about polls this far out. Hell, the polls were wrong in 2008 weren't they?
    What concerns me more is all the sub-rosa, and under-reported changes in the VOTING LAWS that's taking place in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Florida.
    The Republicans/Teatards are keeping us busy bickering amongst ourselves over polls and things that we can't change, yet they are proposing important changes to the voting laws in many states that would FAVOR the Republican candidate for the Presidency.
    President Obama can hold his own on social and domestic issues, and foreign policy, but it is looking like the Republican Teabaggers are looking to beat him not on ideologies but by changing the rules of the game.
    Eyes open America, we've slept long enough.
    Obama 2012

    September 28, 2011 09:32 am at 9:32 am |
  5. Just a thought

    We should all fear what could happen here. We ended up with 10 years of Republican policies, bringing us to where we are today because people tend to think different is better. To think the current slate of republican idiots are better than the current WH resident is downright ignorant and foolish. But the Tea idiots think so. Hopefully, there are more intelligent people in the electorate.

    September 28, 2011 09:34 am at 9:34 am |
  6. randme

    It will be close, but Obama will win it.

    September 28, 2011 09:50 am at 9:50 am |
  7. Lynda/Minnesota

    In October 2008, Ohio polling put McCain ahead at 47.8 – 46%. In actuality, Obama beat McCain 48.8 – 46.3%. In March 2008, PA polling put McCain ahead at 44.6% – 42%. In actuality, Obama beat McCain 51 – 43.7%.

    Not to say that Obama doesn't have his work cut out - he does. So, too, do the pollsters who publish this garbage, month after month.

    Obama/Biden 2012

    September 28, 2011 09:54 am at 9:54 am |
  8. ObamaCares

    Did they take a poll to see how Bonehner measures up? After all, Boenher and TurtleMan are as much a part of America's problem as anyone else. @ Riley, you don't know me but I'll be casting my vote for Mr. Obama.

    September 28, 2011 09:56 am at 9:56 am |
  9. Larry L

    I can't imagine why anybody would vote to place the Republicans back in charge. They controlled the Presidency, the Supreme Court, and for six years, the Congress during the fall of the great economy created during the Clinton years. They started two wars which they never even put on the books. They openly supported defense contractors who cheated the Department of Defense (Cheney's Haliburton) and then gave them bonuses. They allowed the banking industry to run without supervision and Bush issued the first stimulus package to the banks. They spent money like drunken sailors then gave a tax break which slashed revenues – causing the deficit to soar. They raped the agencies responsible for environmental health and safety – something we've never been able to fix because our money is gone. Our infrastructure is crumbling because we have no tax base to run the country. Obama took control after the economy had tanked, with over 8 million jobs already lost. The Republicans have worked only to make his administration fail – with the House catering to Tea Party anarchists and the Senate filibustering over 90 bills – even those they created. Republicans trashed the economy, have worked hard to prevent a recovery, and somebody would vote them back in? WTF?

    September 28, 2011 09:59 am at 9:59 am |
  10. SaintM

    First, it's too early to start this poll numbers stuff up.

    Obama's poll numbers will be fluid until the republican candidate is set in place. Once we know for sure, his numbers against that candidate will most assuredly go up. Anything the republicans have to offer is far short of what we really need. None of them seem to be good all-around candidates, and we can't afford to have a one-dimensional, non-multitasker in the WH. Let's keep the Renaissance Man in place, and take our anger and frustration out on Congress–which if you ask me is where it really belongs.

    September 28, 2011 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
  11. SaintM

    Poll numbers don't mean too much now.

    My suggestion to voters is to keep this Renaissance Man in place, and focus our anger and frustration (and votes) on where it should be focused–on Congress.

    September 28, 2011 10:09 am at 10:09 am |
  12. Fran

    Pres. Obama is done. He is a failure and most sane people realize it. He has shown zero leadership during his time in office. Leading from behind (also known as following) in foreign policy matters and outsourcing major domestic issues to congressional leaders just showcases his inability to take charge.

    September 28, 2011 10:09 am at 10:09 am |
  13. Ray E. (Georgia)

    So far unemployment remains high. It has been that way since the democrats took back the Congress in 2006. Obama Policies are not working to date and he seems to keep trying the same old thing. People need jobs. If the job market stays stagnent over the next year people will be stupid if they re-elect Obama because Obama won't change his policies.

    September 28, 2011 10:10 am at 10:10 am |
  14. Four and The Door

    Pennsylvanian's are smart enough to see that what Obama has done has not even come close to working. He continues to pound out the same failed ideology as if somehow he thinks there will be justification for the damage he has already done. Time to go.

    September 28, 2011 10:16 am at 10:16 am |
  15. Rick McDaniel

    Obama has done nothing to earn anyone's vote, a second time. Not one thing.

    September 28, 2011 10:17 am at 10:17 am |
  16. Rudy NYC

    Four and The Door wrote:
    He continues to pound out the same failed ideology as if somehow he thinks there will be justification for the damage he has already done.
    -------------
    Of course, he does. Thnaks to Senate Republican filibusters since Ted Kennedy passed, the nation has continued down the same road of Republican greedy-ology. The Stimulus was requested by the American people (you helped Wall St, now help Main St). Despite Republican attempts to weaken it, it kept us from sinking into total Depression.

    Republicans campaigned on jobs, slow recovery, and promises of instant gratification should you elect the Tea Party. America got what it voted for. We have gotten job cuts, stalled recovery, and instant gratification to their corporate sponsors. It is time to rid ourselves of the conservative greedy-ology that they bring to the table.

    September 28, 2011 10:29 am at 10:29 am |
  17. Anonymous

    i am very afraid as the gullible in this country sell their self interest to big corporations who doesnt view america as a liable investment risk. first of all the country is over crowded with businesses already and the corporations are looking at it as too much competition, their is not enough demand going around and its crumbling, they can take their business to their customers in other countries and dont have to pay middle class wages and they can make their workers slave away on the week end and dont have the unions looking over their shoulders, they will get rid of regulations and do what they please with america and with mother nature. tax cut for the rich, medicare and social security cut and put upon the stock markets to mercy of countries like greece. hey the repugs wanted the tea baggers to take over congress which they knew they would shut the country down. hey we aint see nothing yet. it will be a long 4 years after the repugs take over the presidency, congress and they already own the supreme courts. yah help us all.

    September 28, 2011 10:30 am at 10:30 am |
  18. Lynda/Minnesota

    @Fran and Rick McDaniel and Four and the Door:

    I wonder who you folks are trying to convince most ... yourselves ... or Obama supporters. Unlikely that the nonsense you brew is really convincing anyone who might otherwise vote for President Obama to instead vote Republican. The alternative is just so much worse, you understand.

    September 28, 2011 10:31 am at 10:31 am |
  19. bb

    Why vote for ANY of the GOP candidates? They all want to implement the same Bush failed policies that trashed our economy to begin with. It would be beyond stupid to vote for another Great Recession/Depression.

    September 28, 2011 10:37 am at 10:37 am |
  20. AR1000

    Let Corbett and Kasich approval ratings sink even more, the Democrats will win in 2012.

    September 28, 2011 10:37 am at 10:37 am |
  21. Roger

    The Republican party is not the party of my parents – not even close. It has been taken over by these far right wing ideaologues who have absolutely no idea of what they are talking about. Until the Republican party wakes up and becomes a rational, reasonable and willing to compromise political party once again, I will be voting Democratic as the alternative is too horrible to think about. Fear and hate mongering are not the answer to our country's problems – take your anger out on the Congress, not President Obama who is trying to do the right thing for all Americans. Obama/Biden 2012!

    September 28, 2011 10:46 am at 10:46 am |
  22. Marry

    Why can’t they limit the primaries to – let’s say 2 Month and the campaigning before the election to 4 or 6 month? Every candidate gets to spend the same limited amount of money (either through donations or – even better – tax-money); TV spots cannot exceed certain time limits or number of spots, TV stations have to donate a certain amount of time to each candidate, free of charge as a public service, the election itself is held from the East to the West and results only announced / published after all polling stations in the US are closed….
    I know, it will only be a dream to have real democratic elections – it is just too much of a business as for it to ever become “fair and balanced”! So, since corporations are now “people” too, the result will be as to often anyway: “And the winner is -- the best money can buy!”

    September 28, 2011 10:48 am at 10:48 am |
  23. Terry, VA

    Can you say one and done !!!! Not even the black panters in Phiily can save Obummie in PA. The people of OH has seen the error of their ways when they put Obummie in. Enter the Rep governor in 2010. Ohio is coming back. Obummie's policies are terrible and he has made a bad economy worse. Hurry up 2012. Bye, Bye Obummie. Enter Romney or Cain. Oh, happy days !!!!

    September 28, 2011 10:51 am at 10:51 am |
  24. Virginia Wick

    I will vote for Obama even if I hold my nose because I would never vote for any of the Republicans that 's running. I am
    middle class and they do not believe in middle class only the RICH.

    September 28, 2011 10:52 am at 10:52 am |
  25. Gloria

    Riley,

    I, too, will be casting my vote for President Obama!

    September 28, 2011 10:54 am at 10:54 am |
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