New polls: Cain up, Perry down, Romney steady
October 5th, 2011
11:49 AM ET
3 years ago

New polls: Cain up, Perry down, Romney steady

Washington (CNN) - If you need more evidence that the storyline in the race for the GOP presidential nomination has dramatically changed in the past couple of weeks, all you have to do is look at the three newest national polls in the Republican horse race.

All three surveys indicate that Texas Gov. Rick Perry is dropping, businessman and former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain is rising, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is holding steady.

Lets start with the CBS News poll, released Tuesday evening, which indicates Romney, who's making his second bid for the White House, and Cain are tied at the top of the field, each with the support of 17% of Republican primary voters. Perry, the former front-runner in the national polls, is in third, at 12%, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 8%, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is at 7%, he's making his third run for the presidency, Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota at 4%, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at 3%, and former Utah Gov. and U.S. ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at 2%.

According to the survey, Romney's up one point since the last CBS poll from two weeks ago, but Cain has skyrocketed 12 points and Perry's plunged 11 points. The new poll comes after Perry's come under attack from the rival campaigns over his stance on illegal immigration, border security, and social security, his uneven performance in the last GOP presidential debate two weeks ago, and his poor showing at a much watched straw poll in Florida a week and a half ago.

The survey indicates that tea party supporters, who are very influential when it comes to picking the next GOP nominee, are one reason behind the change in the numbers.

"Tea Party backers have shifted this race: they've now thrown more support behind Herman Cain, pushing him up into a first-place tie, and away from former frontrunner Rick Perry," says the CBS News poll release.

The survey also indicates that 32% of Republican primary voters say Romney has the best chance of beating President Barack Obama in 2012 to win the White House, with 21% saying Perry has the best odds and just 8% indicating that Cain would be the best candidate to win the White House.

Cain's rise and Perry's drop are reflected in two other surveys that released earlier Tuesday. According to a Quinnipiac University poll, Romney's at 22%, with Cain at 17% and Perry at 14%. And an ABC News/Washington Post survey indicates Romney at 25% and Cain and Perry at 17%.

The CBS News poll was conducted Sept. 28-October 2, with 1,012 adults, including 324 likely GOP primary voters, questioned by phone. The survey's sampling error for likely GOP primary voters is plus or minus six percentage points.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll questioned 1,001 national adults by telephone, with a sampling error of plus or minus six percentage points for questions only of Republicans and independents who lean toward the GOP.

The Quinnipiac University poll questioned 2,118 registered voters, including 927 likely Republican primary voters, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points for GOP questions.

Also see:

New polls: Cain up, Perry down, Romney steady

Polls: What if Christie had run

Poll: Massachusetts Senate race heats up 


Filed under: 2012 • Herman Cain • Mitt Romney • Polls • Rick Perry
soundoff (25 Responses)
  1. YOU Decide 2012: A bankrupt socialist welfare country or a thriving capitalist super power

    Well, the Republicans will just have to have a Romney/Cain ticket then and mop the floor with Obama! Can't we just have the election next week instead of enduring another year of disaster and failure at the hands of the leftist Democrats? They'll only do more damage that will have to be fixed. Three years of Obama and 5 years of Reid and Pelosi has just about crushed this country.

    October 5, 2011 12:02 pm at 12:02 pm |
  2. Lynda/Minnesota

    "Lets start with the CBS News poll, released Tuesday evening, which indicates Romney, who's making his second bid for the White House, and Cain are tied at the top of the field, each with the support of 17% of Republican primary voters."

    Oh, no, Mitt. Looks as if your own party members really, really don't like you after all. Just you wait until Cain gets back from his "book tour" and starts to campaign in earnest. What an absolute comedy of errors this New Republican Party primary has become. Old guard might just as well join the Democrats ... they're all Liberals in the eyes of the TeaPers now anyway. Personally, I don't think the TeaPers are quite done, yet. There's still a great deal of damage to do, not only to America, but the Grand Old Party, as well. Apparently, Dick Armey CAN take the party hostage from his breakfast table at Denny's after all. Too funny.

    October 5, 2011 12:04 pm at 12:04 pm |
  3. Rudy NYC

    Cain has been my pick since the spring to "be the beast" that the Tea Party wants to see in their nominee. If he wants to win the nomination, then he better start drumming up some endorsements. He had better stop meeting with the likes of Trump, and meet with some folks with political and military experience.

    October 5, 2011 12:05 pm at 12:05 pm |
  4. bobcat2u

    I think it's hilarious that Herb actually thinks he has a chance.

    October 5, 2011 12:08 pm at 12:08 pm |
  5. Rudy NYC

    YOU Decide wrote:
    Well, the Republicans will just have to have a Romney/Cain ticket then and mop the floor with Obama!
    -------------
    Mr. Cain is a one dimensional thinker. He thinks that it is all about the business. He comes across as if he campaigning to be chairman of the board instead of POTUS. Romney doesn't know if he is coming or going. Independents and moderates trust him even less that the Tea Party.

    October 5, 2011 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |
  6. ST

    National polls in the Republican horse race???? Am afraid to say these horses are not running fast enough and I really doubt whether they can finish the race or rather win it.

    October 5, 2011 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  7. vic , nashville ,tn

    Real candidate Jon Huntsman bottom of the poll Wow

    October 5, 2011 12:18 pm at 12:18 pm |
  8. gt

    this is not freeze tag...and everyone will be froze..its a long long time in politics till the primary voteing and the election...

    October 5, 2011 12:22 pm at 12:22 pm |
  9. Randy, San Francisco

    The top three GOP/Tea Party presidential candidates should worry party faithfuls. Perry is fading quickly. Romney is a lack luster canddiate. Cain appeals to only a narrow audience. Is the GOP/Tea Party trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?

    October 5, 2011 12:22 pm at 12:22 pm |
  10. glm

    Would like to see more commentary on the Republican candidates views on the economy, budget priorities, global/domestic issues and so on. Even though this is Mittens second run, I still don't know him. Don't care about his Mormon affiliation since Obama was elected after sitting in Rev. Wright's pew for 20 years, yet the Dems still went with him. I like Ron Paul but he's not showing well enough to be a serious contender. Maybe it's time to drop out and support someone else?

    October 5, 2011 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
  11. Peace

    Herb Cain will leave the campaign and go for the book tour. My question is; when he comes back will he start campaigning where he left?? Where is the seriousness?

    October 5, 2011 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
  12. Woman In California

    Cain will continue to rise until that "moment" when the TP votes for one of their own. Suddenly, Mr. Cain will realize he's made a complete fool out of himself and he is no more "liked" than our current president.

    Despite Perry's poor performance – he is STILL one of them and he will win the nomination accordingly. Any bets?

    October 5, 2011 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  13. YOU Decide 2012: A bankrupt socialist welfare country or a thriving capitalist super power

    Mr. Cain is a one dimensional thinker. He thinks that it is all about the business. He comes across as if he campaigning to be chairman of the board instead of POTUS. Romney doesn't know if he is coming or going. Independents and moderates trust him even less that the Tea Party.
    ===================================================================================================
    One dimensional thinker??? You mean like being laser focused on one thing, SUCCESS?? And actually it IS "all about business"! What the heck do you think DRIVES OUR ECONOMY??? Government welfare checks??? Government make work jobs??? This country needs to get itself BACK to the saying "As GM goes, so goes the nation". When there are booming businesses there are PLENTY of jobs to go around. THAT IS A GOOD THNG for all people AND your beloved government bureacracy becasue they rake in the taxes BIG TIME.

    October 5, 2011 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  14. DAK

    Does it really matter who places where when they all say the exact same thing? No new ideas, no solutions, no origional thoughts of their own... it is like they are all reading the same script. My question is, who wrote that script? Some corporation? A CEO? A group of tea party people huddled in their mom's basement? They entire field of GOP wann-a-be Presidents are cut from the same cloth and are all more concerned with beating Obama than in actually governing. Notice none of them offer any solutions, any plans, and road forward otehr than the same old, same old of "Less regulation, Less taxes." If that worked, then by the end of GWB's term, America should of been BOOMING! Instead, we were loosing jobs at a record pace and the county's economy was in shambles. Why do people think it would be a good idea to do what has already been proven NOT TO WORK?

    October 5, 2011 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm |
  15. ST

    Herb Cain can be rising BUT how is he going to make it? A man with neither money nor organisation!

    October 5, 2011 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  16. Joe from CT, not Lieberman

    YOU DECIDE, the primary reason that President (yes, that is his title – please use it) Obama has not accomplished as much as he set out to is the opposition from Senator Mitch McConnell who has threatened to filibuster almost every piece of legislation proposed by the President. He has even filibustered and put holds on judicial nominees that he fulminated about President Bush not appointing, either! There is just no satisfying this man.

    As far as holding the election tomorrow? Well, unless your fellow Republicans can get their collective minds together and support someone other than the "candidate of the week" there really cannot be an election. Your only party members that have not changed their minds over the past 6 months are the 4700 people who are supporting Ron Paul. And from the tone of your postings, he is the last guy you want to see your Party nominate!

    Remember, even President Ronald Reagan (who couldn't get nominated as a Republican Candidate today) believed that compromise was more important than ideological purity in getting legislation passed. For whatever reason, today's Conservatives, especially those who are Tea flavored, do not believe compromise has any place in government.

    October 5, 2011 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm |
  17. B

    The three Stooges in the GOP’s ongoing Circus -

    October 5, 2011 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm |
  18. Jake

    the Republican nominees and much of the party loathed Romney in the 2008 election, I guess much hasn't changed! Will the party eventually lift him up? i'm wondering...draft Palin so we can have some more fun this season!

    October 5, 2011 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  19. LordFlashheart

    The "horses" in this "horse race" all look like they are overdue for a trip to the glue factory... Crazy, uneducated, dull, and out of touch is no way to go though life (unless you are running on this elections GOTP ticket it seems).

    October 5, 2011 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  20. Al-NY,NY

    Perry is fading as more and more of his radical thoughts and policies are being brought to light. It'll be the same thing with Cain. It's called "flavor of the week" and the only one who benefits is the "cult" member who the zealots don't trust

    October 5, 2011 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  21. Mitt Romney - He`ll say Anything to Get Elected

    The lasting story of substance isn`t Perry`s fall or Cain`s rise . . . it is the never ending dissatisfaction with Romney. His own party doesn`t want him so how can THE REST OF US?

    The Teapublicans have invested so much in "aw shucks" politics [GWB, Palin, John "build the dang fence" McCain, Rick "cowboy" Perry, that they can`t embrace a guy who graduated from that bastion of liberalism, Harvard. Unfortunately, I`m talking about Romney and not Obama. Further more, since he was pro-choice before he became prolife, they will NEVER trust him.

    October 5, 2011 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm |
  22. AlaskaPalin

    Romney=obama. Say what you like- the moment sarah steps into this race it will be all her against obama. The american people still remember the vision she had for this nation and the vibrancy and charisma with which she articulated this vision. They remember the boost and energy she gave to the campaign (although she was only running as vp). They regret voting for hopey changey. They will not make that choice twice. They'll vote for sarah palin as president this time around. Betcha.

    October 5, 2011 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  23. Bill

    Although I am no fan of the Republicans John Huntsman is the only candidate out there that is reasonable, open, has broad experience, and is intelligent. In a general election I think he would fair very well. Unfortunately, good luck with that happening. The kooky selection process for the Republican candidate is in the hands of nonthinking TPs, corporate whores, and Bible thumpers. What an embarrassment to the rest of the world! Where did this country go wrong? These morons that thump their chests and say America's best days are ahead have their heads in the sand and will not do what this country needs retain that right.

    October 5, 2011 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  24. The Real Tom Paine

    @ YOU Decide 2012: A bankrupt socialist welfare country or a thriving capitalist super power:

    Say Cain gets elected and enacts his vaunted "999" program: your taxes at the local and state level will shoot through the roof to fund the programs that have now been thrust upon them. In addition, a 9% national sales tax will kill consumer spending: does that sound like a great way to spur a recovery, by reducing consumer spending even more than it normally is?. When California cut their property taxes over 30 years ago, it led to a huge increase in local sales taxes in an attempt to cover the difference( and formed the basis of their current budget problems). If you want the debt reduced, it has to be a combination on tax increases and program cuts/ means testing. A 3% increase in tax rates for the wealthy to pay off tax cuts that produced negligible job growth in the long term is what is needed, not some pie-in-the-sky plan that will drive us further into debt.

    October 5, 2011 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  25. T'sah from Virginia

    Why isn't anyone talking about Cain's donors??????? Does he have any? Anyone can say what they want in a poll but where is the money to back it??? Look at the cash Perry and Romney are bringing in with no mention of Cain's. And on another note – where are the LOSERS that "quickly" endorsed Perry – why aren't they out there defending him???

    ►Well, the Republicans will just have to have a Romney/Cain ticket then and mop the floor with Obama! ◄

    Really? This person picks LOSERS just like those who selected Perry. This person bounces around and thinks like Palin with her "flavors of the week." This person actually does not know who he/she wants to run – just go with the ignorant far-RIGHT flow and be LOUD about it!! Jeez! How can you mix far-RIGHT with "only far-RIGHT when you think it benefits you" and then expect everyone from the far-RIGHT to get on board??? Give me a break!

    Obama/Biden 2012!!

    October 5, 2011 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |