(CNN) - A new survey of Arizona Republicans indicates that Mitt Romney and Herman Cain are tied at the top in the race for the GOP presidential nomination.
And a Rocky Mountain Poll released Wednesday also indicates that President Barack Obama holds a slight advantage over three possible Republican challengers in hypothetical 2012 general election matchups.
Arizona may be more of a player in the battle for the Republican nomination, as the state has moved up the date of its primary to February 28. CNN and the Arizona Republican party are holding a debate in the state on November 30. The state may also be competitive in the general election.
According to the survey, 25% of Arizona Republicans say if the state's primary were held today, they would vote for Cain, a businessman, former Godfather's Pizza CEO and radio talk show host, with 24% saying they would back Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, who's making his second bid for the White House. Cain's one point margin is well within the survey's sampling error.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry is at 10%, with all other candidates in single digits and one in five Arizona Republicans undecided.
Among independent voters, Cain and Romney are tied at 15%, with Rep. Ron Paul of Texas at 14% and everyone else in single digits and 28% undecided. Republicans and independents are allowed to vote in Arizona's GOP presidential primary.
The survey indicates that Obama holds a 45-40% margin over Romney in a hypothetical general election showdown, with Obama holding 44-38% advantage over Perry and a 45-38% advantage over Cain. All of Obama's margins are within the poll's sampling error.
The Rocky Mountain poll was conducted Oct. 13-14, with 581 registered voters in Arizona questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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Simple Math in Arizona poll's analysis: 4.1% sampling error
Obama vs Romney: 45 -40 = 5 (outside the 4.1 sampling error)
Obama vs Perry: 44-38 = 6 (outside the 4.1 sampling error)
Obama vs Cain: 45-38 =7 (outside the 4.1 sampling error)
...and yet the analyzer said all these are 'within' the sampling error. Ain't they ALL 'outside of' 4.1% points??????
Obama vs Romney: 45 -40 = 5 (outside the 4.1 sampling error)
Nope that is inside the sampling error. The difference would have to exceed twice the sampling error in order to be outside of the sampling error.
Obama can range from 41 to 49% (the worst case is 41%)
Romeny can range 36 to 44% (the best case is 44%)
If you consider the full range of sampling error, there are some scenarios where Romney has a lead. So, when they declare the results as "within the sampling error", they mean the results are more or less a statistical dead heat. There is no clear cut winner.
I live in AZ and this is a B.S. poll. You are telling me Obama is leading in a conservative state with this political environment? Obama won't get 40% of the AZ vote come election. I will also predict that no state that held their nose for McCain (or voted for Palin) will vote for Obama.
Max – You apparently don't have a very good understanding of "simple math". The sampling error means that the actual numbers could be off by 4.1%. In the case of Romney and Obama that means that the actual percent could be Obama 40.9 and Romney would then be 44.9. I'll let you do the math for the rest, but the statement is correct that the numbers are all within the sampling error.
It looks like the only hope for republicans is to go Libertarian or Bircher.
There is no fool like an old fool. You stupid libs.
Romney, Cain, Perry – any of them would be better than Obama, Biden, Pelosi. All the problems we face are no excuse to shift to Marxism and that is clearly Obama's goal. This current president is fueling the fire of anarchy and rebellion. That is NOT the way to solve our problems but will open the door to tyranny. And don't give me that line about the tyranny of the 1%; they each have 1 vote just like the 99%.
This just in, Rasmussen polls still have McCain/Palin leading Obama/Biden in 2008, and are predicting a republican win.
@razmataz - if Romney/Cain were to win over Obama/Biden, then the rest of world will really know that Americans are dumber than ditch water!
"President Barack Obama holds a slight advantage over three possible Republican challengers in hypothetical 2012 general election matchups."
Funny, all the other polls I've been reading puts Cain, Romney, Gingrich and Perry above Obama in a presidential race. And since CNN slants voraciously towards liberal, I would say their poll is slanted as well.
Inreality. . . the world is spinning a little to fast for you, isn't it. We haven't had the anarchy and rebellion crap for a long time, but if you listen to Glenn Beck, he is getting the nuts fired up.
I live on the Arizona/Mexico border.
We currently have a President who condoned mutiple sales of weapons to Mexican drug cartels. OF COURSE, he knew what was going on... if he didn't, he would have fired Holder the minute he found out. He keeps Holder on to cover his on hind end. For this alone, I don't see how ANYONE could continue to support Obama. How many have died because of Obama? How many??
I'm tired of politicians.
I'm voting for Herman Cain.
The 999 does NOT include social security.
Stack them up – knock them down – stack them up – knock them down – In the infamous words of Bugs Bunny – what a bunch of ultra-maroons!
Hey let me get this straight.... my fellow Americans for whom I wish nothing but the best .....over 40% of some sample would saddle this great country and me with Obama for 4 more years. Please. I don't think that there is any candidate or a yellow dog who can't beat Obama.
When it comes to the people bashing Rasmussen. When were they wrong in 2010?
They have a record of accuracy. But if you prefer to believe madeup polls by dKos outfits like Research 2000 and Public Policy, over proven pollsters like Rasmussen and Gallup that show how low Obama's job approval really is, then that's your problem.
Obama is a guaranteed loser in this election.
While Arizona may be the "leader" in anti-illegal immigration legislation, that doesn't mean the state is immune to ignorant masses disease. They re-elected John McCain didn't they? Romney, deep down, is an amnesty-sucking porch climber AND Cain has uttered the "path to citizenship" crapola last week while defending his electric fence comments. The ONLY reliable Republican candidate on illegal immigration, and who has NEVER flinched on the topic, is Michele Bachmann. But the Arizona ignorant masses are ignoring that, because the Romney and McCain are touted by the Mexican-sucking media everyday, and they want their preference to be "trendy" at any cost. It's sickening.
Yes for those of you with "simple math" problems, the sampling error effects both results. Therefore:
Obama 45- Romney 40, could range from Obama 49 – Romney 36, to Obama 41 – Romney 44. Looks like it could be a blowout, or a draw. That's why polls are a waste of time. And by the way, this poll just listed that it was of registered voters. They could have been 100 % democrats polled. . . just a thought. . . .
Check out Cain's new racist ad. Search Youtube for "Cain and yellow flowers". You'll see what I mean.
What's the matter Gary, is it your mad because HERB CAIN, MITTEN ROMNEY, NOT SLICK RICK PERRY, NEWTIE GRINICH, FAKE SANTOURM, CRAZY BACHMANN, WHO HUNTSMAN, NO BODY PAUL, will not be the Next President Of The United States.
Hahahahaha you cry baby.
President never held a job, well he is holding the WHITE MANS job now, you racist punk.
YOUR PRESIDENT BARACK HUSSIEN OBAMA WILL BE YOUR NEXT PRESIDENT UNTIL 2016, SO EITHER DIE, OR GET OVER IT. NONE OF THESE CLOWNS CAN BEAT HIM.
Have a nice time crying yourself to sleep for the next 5 years, you reThugliCan't Purtid Fake Tea Scammer. Thanks to you and your kind for destroying the reThugliCan't Party. Hahahahahahah Great job you RACIST PUNK.
"Herman Cain is feared by liberal Democrats ". Hey, they also said long time ago, "Sarah Pallin is feared by liberal Democrats". Where is Sarah Pallin now? Just want to let you know, we Democrats fear nobody!