Poll: Romney, Santorum tied with Obama in Florida
January 11th, 2012
10:31 AM ET
3 years ago

Poll: Romney, Santorum tied with Obama in Florida

(CNN) - A new poll shows President Barack Obama statistically tied with Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney in Florida, a state that holds its primary on January 31 and widely expected to be a swing state in the general election.

According to a Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday, Romney took in 46% of support among Florida's registered voters, while Obama came in at 43%.

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The three percentage-point margin falls within the range of the poll's sampling error.

Also significant, Rick Santorum took high marks in a hypothetical matchup against Obama. The former Pennsylvania senator received 43% compared to Obama's slightly higher 45 - also representing a margin within the sampling error.

While Obama carries the state's voters in the 18-49 age range, Santorum beat Obama - 49% to 40% - among voters in the 50 to 64 demographic and 53% to 39% among those 65 and older, two key voting blocs in the Sunshine State.

Obama narrowly won Florida in 2008 against Arizona Sen. John McCain by three points.

The poll was conducted entirely before New Hampshire's Tuesday primary, a contest Romney won by a big lead over his GOP rivals. Instead, the survey occurred in the days that followed the Iowa caucuses, where Romney essentially tied with Santorum at 25%, edging him out by only eight votes.

The Quinnipiac University Polling Institute surveyed 1,412 registered voters by telephone January 4-8, with a sampling error of 2.6 percentage points.

– CNN Chief White House Correspondent Jessica Yellin contributed to this story.


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (92 Responses)
  1. sayer

    Florida, be careful who you vote for. They might end up being your president. Then you will only have yourselves to blame the next four years... the rich and their corporations get richer and hardly hire anyone. Obama 2012!

    January 11, 2012 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm |
  2. We ALL Know, Mami

    It's all a hair thing, you know. Mitty has purty hair with white walls and all. Mexican-luchador El Santo's hair ain't too bad with an interspersing of white all over it. Mr. Prez has shorter hair, that has gone whitish in last three years. So, the Floridians ain't thinking straight - they ought to go with Mr. Prez as his hair rules. And yes, we are ALL still wondering, what DID they tell Mitty and El Santo about THEIR hair? [In Spanish: "Que les dijieron del pelo?"]

    January 11, 2012 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm |
  3. Larry L

    I wonder how many people in Florida are willing to give their Social Security and Medicare to Wall Street? If you trust the financial fat-cats with these systems voting Republican would be a smart move.

    January 11, 2012 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm |
  4. John

    Forget Bain Capital, Romney really was just doing his job. And while that meant ending some jobs, it did save far more than iit lost. What damns Romney is his tax plan. I refer readers to the analysis done by the non-partisan group Tax Policy Center, which concluded that his plan gives another 6.8% on average to millionaires, 2.5% to the middle class-and pays for this by ending Obama's tweaks and thus raising taxes on those earning less than 40,000. Well, since you can only get so much blood out of a stone, actually the poor can't cover his largess to the rich, and the net for the country is another 180 billion of debt. You'd think he could at least not go out of his way to take from the poor when it doesn't accomplish much.

    January 11, 2012 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  5. Nicholas

    Obama needs not fear. The republicans tried to manufacture enthusiasm to get rid of Obama, yet the primary voters turnout so far is merely higher than that of 2008. Although New Hampshire has a huge Independent pool, only 7821 more people voted in the republican primary this year compared to 2008. I am not saying Obama has accomplished all his promises, but I will take Obama any day over Willard and his cronies.

    January 11, 2012 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  6. Roger

    Obama versus Mittens. This is truly a "no brainer". Why this country would even think of giving the White House back to the Republicans after 8 years of GWB is beyond me. President Obama has led this nation with honor and dignity and will do so for another 4 years. It certainly is not his fault he has had to contend with a good for nothing Congress that has blocked almost every proposal he has offered. This country will continue to move forward only if President Obama is re-elected and these right wing nut jobs in Congress are voted out.

    January 11, 2012 12:42 pm at 12:42 pm |
  7. billnick

    Please Romney, cut the Obama Administration's, (aka our Grandchildren's), credit Card into pieces, Stop the out of control Federal Government spending and re-organize as you did with Bain Capital!
    Anyone that can't grasp the magnitude and future impact of our economic crisis simply prefers to ride the gravy train until it eventually derails into disaster.
    Mitt Romney is the only Candidate that has the balls to acknowledge what most of us don't want to see or hear!

    January 11, 2012 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  8. Navyvet8192

    I guess with the momentum that Ron Paul is developing, they'll have to start publishing where he ranks in the very near future. I sincerely hope the youth and independent voters can get out and muster some more support for Dr. Paul. They tried to tag President Obama with all of Rev Jerimiah Wrights rantings after his endorsement, and people saw through that. The only difference between that and the ghost writing that was done for Ron Paul's old newsletters is that it was in Ron Paul's name. He has taken ownership of what was written even though he didn't write it! When was the last time you saw a politician do that. People will see through the main stream republican smokescreen that so fears him getting into office as well! American's are smarter than they used to be, when they simply believed everything they were told because it came from TV or the radio.

    January 11, 2012 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  9. R

    It's somewhat funny to see so many people get up in arms about a poll that will certainly change in the future. It's somewhat funny, but also sad. So what if Romney and Santorum are tied with Obama in Florida. None of them are worth my vote.

    January 11, 2012 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  10. Marie MD

    So Obama comes outnahead when you split the numbers between the two and the President?

    January 11, 2012 12:44 pm at 12:44 pm |
  11. ardee123

    Really ! ? Obama is still popular in Florida ? Amazing. !!

    January 11, 2012 12:46 pm at 12:46 pm |
  12. jb

    Obama will win Florida!

    January 11, 2012 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  13. Sniffit

    "CNN does it again. How can you say Romney and Obama tied in Florida, with Romney ahead in this survey 3%? That is bad for the President. He is hurting everywhere this year."

    1. Surveys are done via random sampling under the assumption that if you sample randomly, you will get a natural distribution representative of the target population as a whole. You can measure the likley chance of error, i.e., that your sample deviates from the target population, and that's the margin of error. If the difference of 3% is less than the margin of error, it signals a statistical tie.

    2. The average of the top 10-12 polls (yes, including Rasmussen) still shows Obama ahead of Mittens nationally by about 2%...and also in several key swing states. I'd hardly call that hurting everywhere.

    January 11, 2012 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  14. Anonymous

    Anyone but Obama is goodwith me!!!!

    January 11, 2012 12:49 pm at 12:49 pm |
  15. Sniffit

    "Anyone that can't grasp the magnitude and future impact of our economic crisis simply prefers to ride the gravy train until it eventually derails into disaster."

    I can think of a particular 1% of the population that falls squarely into that category. Gravy train indeed.

    January 11, 2012 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  16. Big George in Big D

    I have a great big time understanding why on earth ANYONE is left out there that actually supports Nobama!!!

    January 11, 2012 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  17. kimberly

    Sorry, but until I read that santorum was tied with Obama, I was a little worried! LOL! Seriously??? This poll of 1400 people, who by the way still have a landline (who still has a home phone???) is a joke! In NO universe does some neandrathol like Santorum beat Obama! I mean its so laughable! I am glad that Obama is close in Florida, it means he needs to come out swinging, and go back to the man we elected, not one that tries to work with anti American republicans!

    January 11, 2012 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  18. Anon-i-mouse

    Obama/Biden 2012.

    January 11, 2012 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |
  19. Really,

    Florida will be obamas downfall, We who live here want nothing to do with this NON-american and we shall not give to this wanna be dictator, Down Will This Wanna be

    January 11, 2012 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  20. SS

    ~OBAMA 2012!~

    January 11, 2012 01:04 pm at 1:04 pm |
  21. Republican who supports President Obama

    @Think Again – Well said. When you tally the accomplishments it shows how much President Obama has accomplished even with GOP obstructionism. Looking back I could not imagine being in a better postion if McCain was elected. My only hope is that people vote based on facts and not the lies reported by Conservatives.

    January 11, 2012 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  22. jason1

    Nobody is excited about Obama. Polls show Americans fear an Obama second term by a 2-1 margin. He's done folks.

    January 11, 2012 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  23. GI Joe

    I'm voting straight Dem. No risk of even a republican vote "sneaking" into the machine that way.

    January 11, 2012 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  24. Truth and Nothing But the Truth

    2. The average of the top 10-12 polls (yes, including Rasmussen) still shows Obama ahead of Mittens nationally by about 2%...and also in several key swing states. I'd hardly call that hurting everywhere.
    =======================================================================================
    Which is STILL within the margin of error. Poll numbers this bad for a sitting President have not been seen since Jimmy Carter. How ironically appropriate! Both will go down as the worst in history.

    January 11, 2012 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  25. Weasley

    "Tied in Florida" means a Republican win. Let's not forget the 2000 election fiasco, that resulted in an unearned Bush presidency.

    January 11, 2012 01:15 pm at 1:15 pm |
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