CNN Political Ticker
Florida polls show Romney retaining lead
24 days ago

Florida polls show Romney retaining lead

(CNN) – New polls released over the weekend show Mitt Romney maintaining a lead over this three Republican presidential rivals in the final days before Tuesday's Florida primary.

The former Massachusetts governor leads former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by double digits in the surveys, while former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum trails the pair. Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who has chosen not to campaign in Florida and spent Saturday in Maine, is further behind the pack.

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One poll that came out Sunday morning and straddled the Thursday night CNN debate in Jacksonville, showed Romney at 42%, Gingrich at 27%, Santorum at 16% and Paul at 11%.

If Santorum were to leave the race, the NBC News/Marist poll showed Romney and Gingrich splitting his support, with Romney's backing rising to 49% and Gingrich's to 33%.

According to the poll results from after the CNN debate, Santorum got a 5% boost while Romney lost three percentage points and Gingrich dropped four points. Paul's support didn't change following the debate.

Romney also led in a Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 survey of likely GOP voters conducted Jan. 24 through Jan. 26 – before the CNN debate – and released Saturday evening. Romney received 42% to 31% for Gingrich, 14% for Santorum and 6% for Paul.

And an American Research Group survey, taken entirely after the latest televised debate, showed Romney in the top spot with 43% support from likely GOP primary voters, followed by Gingrich with 32%, Santorum with 11% and Paul with 8%.

A last-minute surge would have less of an impact in Florida, which allows early voting and absentee ballots for the primary, than in some other states. So far, more than 400,000 votes have been cast, according to the Florida Department of State.

The NBC survey of 3,141 likely Republican primary voters was conducted between Jan. 25 and Jan. 27, and has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. The Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll of 800 people has a sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. The ARG survey of 600 likely GOP voters was conducted between Jan. 27 and Jan. 28 with a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Also see:

Florida governor: Why Latinos back Romney

Santorum cancels events after admitting daughter to hospital

Voight, McCain join Romney for lighthearted rally

Ron Paul's caucus focus


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Newt Gingrich • Rick Santorum • Ron Paul
soundoff (70 Responses)
  1. Rudy NYC

    Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are both ideologically promiscuous. Take your pick conservatives. They both say everthing that you want to hear. Romney is a basically a salesman. Gingrich is basically a sold man.

    January 29, 2012 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  2. vic , nashville ,tn

    Newt is leading in National poll. We knew only Romney has money to win Florida Republicans

    January 29, 2012 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
  3. nolimits3333

    Could the contrast be any greater between the guy who looted American companies and shipped their jobs overseas and only pays taxes at a 13% rate, and our president who wants the wealthy to pay taxes at the same rate as the rest of us. Romney is the poster child for welfare for the wealthy. Why should the idle rich, who don't work, pay taxes at a lower rate than those who do work?

    January 29, 2012 11:53 am at 11:53 am |
  4. Victoria avgam54

    Mitt is a Twitt and Newt is a Beaut... end of story. Vote for Obama

    January 29, 2012 11:56 am at 11:56 am |
  5. Just a thought

    ...yep as Rudy said....just another pit stop in the GOP/Tea Clown Car parade. Take your pick conservatives! The variety of silliness and mistruths is endless
    Obama 2012

    January 29, 2012 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  6. westward

    If people are hellbent on voting (R) – what IS the best choice within that category? If you are a senior, a minority, a female, a student/teacher/fireman, etc. – you are actually hurting yourself by voting (R).

    One more point – the AARP have blasted the Paul Ryan plan in the past because it hurts seniors – Mitt Romney is adamant about implementing the Paul Ryan plan – Where are they now? Why are seniors falling all over themselves to vote against themselves now? It's just outright sad.

    January 29, 2012 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  7. YEAH

    Don't you guys worry about the National Poll because after Romney wins in Florida next Tuesday, the NATIONAL POLL will go for Romney...yeah yeah yeah...GO ROMNEY 2012!!

    January 29, 2012 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm |
  8. Rick McDaniel

    Romney is running such a "dirty tricks" campaign, that I will NOT be able to support him, at all. if he wins the nomination, he will NOT get my vote in the general election.

    I see exactly what he was accused of, in his business background..........a ruthless corporate raider, who will say anything to win, just as he would do anything to profit.

    January 29, 2012 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  9. mirrorlogic

    ...and there is the reason Santorum stayed in the race...to block NEWT for Romney. Politics at its finest. Watch how Santorum is rewarded in the end.

    January 29, 2012 12:28 pm at 12:28 pm |
  10. mirrorlogic

    ...if Santorum had dropped...throw a good portion of Santorum's conservative votes toward NEWT (as most polls show tat would be the case as they can't or won't go for Willard Mitt)...and this thing becomes a head-to-head political horse race. That is why Romney wanted him to stick around...now watch the pay-off in the end when Santorum is rewarded (paid off) by the establishment. Tis-tis so many people can't see through the game Romney and the big-boys are playing.

    January 29, 2012 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  11. mirrorlogic

    Congrats ladies (generalized statement not meant to insult - only that is the voting segment mainly backing the slick tall looking guy in the race) (as many polls confirm)...you have once again determined a political race based on smoke-and-mirrors, and outward appearance. Willard Mitt is slick...you only have to see the hair to know it. There is a reason a majority of men sense it too. So go ahead and ignore the offshore accounts, the errors in the federal filing form, and ruthless corporate vulture mentality that will cut our families job - and vote for the dude with the nice smile.

    January 29, 2012 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  12. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    After Mittens spent over $15 million in negative ads to trash his opponents, it will be good to get back to our more pleasant obnoxious Kia ads on Wednesday.

    January 29, 2012 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  13. enuff

    They've all had their hands caught in the cookie jar at one time or another. What a sad state of affairs, when all we have to vote for is who is the "least" dishonest candidate.

    January 29, 2012 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  14. Chuck McClish

    Obama, Gingrich, Romney, they are all the same. Foreign intervention won't stop. Saber rattling with Iran will increase. Guantanamo will stay open. The Patriot Act and latest NDAA will keep their present form. The national debt will increase.

    When will people realize that the left/right battle is irrelevant? Whether you love him or hate him, the only candidate that stands for real change is Ron Paul.

    January 29, 2012 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  15. Mitten Polls are lies

    Romney the swiss bank candidate that says corporations are people to but dont need to pay people taxes, can honestly say he pumped millions into CNN and the Polls to peddle influence the Polls to favor him in Florida. an old trick of Gingrich. interesting. Conservative Corporatism Daily ~

    January 29, 2012 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  16. Jeetu

    None of these four guys of the republican party are worthy to be President of USA. I will not vote for anyone.

    The polls are a joke and should not be conducted and announced with such speed. If the media wishes to influence the elections, there are other better ways to serve the public. But, the polls innfluences votes, particularly of those who are are undecided. I think this is wromg and should be avoided.

    January 29, 2012 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  17. jilli

    Romney leads over Gingrich, and President Obama has pretty substantial leads on them both.

    January 29, 2012 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  18. WhereIsPalin

    "A last-minute surge would have less of an impact in Florida....."

    Why would there be a last minute surge? You're choosing the GOP candidate for president. Shouldn't you know by now who to support?

    January 29, 2012 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  19. Heather

    The polls also show that Romney has the best chance of beating Obama. This economy is hurting Americans and we need a president who is brilliant with finances and economic issues.

    January 29, 2012 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  20. gimmesometruth

    Trump for President. Anyone but Romney.

    January 29, 2012 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  21. My name is Jose Jimenez

    Time for Ricky to pack it in. Paul is doing nearly as good and he isn't even actively campaigning in Florida. Just let the other clowns know you want the VP slot and go back to Pennsylvania.

    January 29, 2012 02:44 pm at 2:44 pm |
  22. Newt is Going to the Convention

    Florida is weird state, where republicans are beholden to the "establishment". The support for Mitt is not as far reaching as he would like people to believe. Newt is going to keep fighting after Florida and will eventually edge out Mitt nationally.

    January 29, 2012 02:56 pm at 2:56 pm |
  23. VegasBankrolled

    Newt's Campaign has gone SO BADLY that he has been completely bankrolled by 1 casino billionaire. Obama tried to waltz into Washington with a congress and senate that hated him and he got NOTHING DONE!!! Mitt has the backing of over 4 times the number of currently sitting congress men and women with whom he can GET HIS IDEAS PASSED ON DAY ONE. I'll vote for a proven financial genius (Romney) over a disgraced politician's promises of a United States of America and the Moon, all the way to the White House.

    January 29, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  24. RockoT

    Romney is not conservative – period. So, we want him to lose, but I think we all know that the other choices are also not fiscally conservative.

    Heck even conservative icons like Reagan, ballooned the federal budget and engaged in relentless deficit spending.

    So – as fun as it was to vote against Romney – he lost Iowa. He lost South Carolina, ultimatley to defeat Romney there would have to be a fiscal conservative alternative.

    Paul is that – but people don't like his stance on social issues. Still – I think the only thing left to do is continue voting for Paul.

    I mean – as much as I don't want Romney to win, eventually you have to consider that you don't really want Newt to win either, and I sure as heck don't want Santorum to win.

    All 3 are big government – promise anything, deficit spend types. They want to say they aren't as bad as Obama though.

    Really? Really 13,000 people on the moon- really? 100,000+ new troops really? VAT tax really?

    January 29, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  25. ToughUSA

    Breaking News Ron Paul Initiates Global Debate
    'Endorse Liberty' Super PAC to Broadcast 30 Minute Ron Paul TV Special in Florida
    Pacs buying 30 min time slots in florida
    Google It (EndorseLiberty) UNBELIEVABLE !!!!!!

    January 29, 2012 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
  26. Aztec Phil

    How can you tell if New Gringrich has committed a crime? He accuses you of it.

    January 29, 2012 03:04 pm at 3:04 pm |
  27. Jose L. Garza

    None of this two can win they only reprecent the greedy super rich!!

    January 29, 2012 03:04 pm at 3:04 pm |
  28. JB

    So this will end up as a spendathon between Mitt and Obama.

    January 29, 2012 03:06 pm at 3:06 pm |
  29. TJeff1776

    Newt has been involved in three(3) things in his entire life- (1) family (2) Politics, and (3) teaching politics. To be perfectly honest.....he failed at all three. Since gov't consists of Judicial, Legislative, and Administrative and failing at number (2), he is now shooting for number (3) of which he literally knows NOTHING whatever about. He has never built, supervised, or been in any form of business whatever. One writer stated "but neither did Obama until three years ago". Point made.

    January 29, 2012 03:09 pm at 3:09 pm |
  30. heather

    there is no honor among thiefs, the same is true about politics. You should stick with studying the man, the issue he is telling you he supports, look into his ethics, principles, and values before he started running for President, forget the cramp he is spouting about his opponent (because they all will do this) and vote accordingly. I vote Mitt Romney. When Newt was Speaker of the house, he was not an honorable man with no ethics, his personal life is questionable. He would do the same if President.

    January 29, 2012 03:10 pm at 3:10 pm |
  31. gimmesometruth

    This article says if Santorum left the race his vote would be split between Romney and Gingrich. And if I had wings i'd be a boeing 747. The spin never stops in the media. Tweedle dum is in office and tweedle dee must be nominated to run against him. It's called presiding over the decline of America by big corporate interests.

    January 29, 2012 03:15 pm at 3:15 pm |
  32. Bill

    romney and santorum on the same ticket won't work. romney will pick the devil – hey, devils are people too. and don't worry about him not paying taxes, he uses all ligit loop holes, i swear it.

    January 29, 2012 03:25 pm at 3:25 pm |
  33. oldsoldierboy

    Romney paid a 0% tax rate on his wages. He hasn't worked in 5 years yet after he's nominated he'll give us the details on how he will create what he hasn't had in years. Stay tuned.

    January 29, 2012 03:34 pm at 3:34 pm |
  34. Pat

    This country has a serious problem when they're voting for people like Romney and Gringrich and Obama to be the next president. Americans everywhere should be ashamed. Shame on you people

    January 29, 2012 03:37 pm at 3:37 pm |
  35. QZ

    I don't see any difference between G.W. Bush and Mitt Romney, other than faces and names.

    January 29, 2012 03:50 pm at 3:50 pm |
  36. John

    I like Romney and I'll vote for him. Romney is a highly successful guy and like Obama is a Harvard law graduate.I only question whether or not he can hold his own in a debate against Obama who is such a skilled debater.

    January 29, 2012 03:58 pm at 3:58 pm |
  37. elizabeth

    Thank God....I am Obama all the way...but the idea of Newt actually winning this thing had me concerned for democracy.....Mitt is a viable candidate....not my cup of tea....but would not be an embarassment to the country.

    January 29, 2012 04:06 pm at 4:06 pm |
  38. Steve

    Amazing how dense the electorate is – they deserve the charlatan in the white house. All this nonsense about the amount the "idle rich" pay in taxes. Mitt Romney and other rich people do not need to invest their money and will not if the tax rate on capital gains goes too high. WE suffer if they do not invest that money in new and/or established businesses. This is not about taxing what they already have (they already paid taxes on that) it is about taxing how much they make on investments. I may risk a dollar for a possible return of 85 cents, I won't for a return of 60 cents unless it is a sure thing. At that point I would buy tax free bonds or put the money in my mattress instead of risking it. it is not about "fairness" or rich vs poor but incentivizing people to risk money in the economy.

    January 29, 2012 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  39. Freedom

    RON PAUL 2012!!

    January 29, 2012 04:13 pm at 4:13 pm |
  40. T'sah From Virginia

    ►Florida polls show Romney retaining lead◄
    Of course he’s in the LEAD while the others impede
    And allow Romney to act like Bachmann stating lies and non-facts
    But that’s okay because in the General, he’ll be forced to retract!!

    Obama 2012

    January 29, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  41. acapulco liem

    I can’t vote for someone that changes his mind to fit who he’s talking to with the issues at hand. Your answers are shallow with insufficient thought given to the problem it’s a broken promise it’s the equivalence to a lie. His problem with the methods that his company Bain works under, is also disturbing loading a company up with debt to bankrupt the company you acquired and leaving the bank holding the defaulted note, didn’t that bank also have stock holders that lost value in their stock? You know when someone is out of touch when he says that he created 100 thoughts that pay an average of $9.25 an hour and expect you live on that, I don’t know anyone that can live on $19,240.00 per year without help.
    Now he claims that he believes in immigrants do to his father being born in Mexico, his grandfather was illegal in Mexico. There is no paperwork showing that he entered Mexico legally and was a wanted man in U.S. what a hypocrite. A vote for Romney is a vote for fraud, broken promise, a way to enrich himself and his friends.

    January 29, 2012 04:14 pm at 4:14 pm |
  42. frootyme

    The so called 'polls' itself is a media propaganda to influence one candidate over the other.
    Let the primaries and elections take place without the media intervention. That will be true elections.

    January 29, 2012 04:18 pm at 4:18 pm |
  43. Willie Floyd

    These two have to be the absolute epitomy of the phrase "the lesser of two evils". They are both vile!!

    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012

    January 29, 2012 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  44. Mike A. , CO

    They are both 'basically' criminals and should be locked up to keep society safe.

    January 29, 2012 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  45. David in FL

    If Santorum drops, Newt and Mitt split his supporters

    January 29, 2012 04:28 pm at 4:28 pm |
  46. gimmesometruth

    Romney will bring down the Republicans. He is the wrong messenger. He needs to be stopped. Gingrich and Santorum should get together, perhaps divide the states and collect the delegates, then let the convention decide between them or even a third candidate who would be a respectable choice such as Guliani or anyone but Romney who is a disgrace to the political system.

    January 29, 2012 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  47. Julian Alien

    Obama,Newt,Romney,and Santorum all want more of the same.They make me sick to look at them.

    January 29, 2012 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  48. Eileen

    God help us all if Romney becomes President!!

    January 29, 2012 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  49. Mark C

    "...if Santorum had dropped...throw a good portion of Santorum's conservative votes toward NEWT (as most polls show tat would be the case as they can't or won't go for Willard Mitt)...and this thing becomes a head-to-head political horse race."

    Actually, half-wit, if you'd bothered to read the article, they polled that. Santorum's vote went equally to Romney and the lizard, changing the race not one bit.

    January 29, 2012 04:46 pm at 4:46 pm |
  50. ludvig

    Further proof that there is something to the study in England that conservatives have lower IQ's. Republicans are jealous of poor people while Democrats are jealous of rich people. It's obvious who is the smarter in the above two comparisons.

    January 29, 2012 04:48 pm at 4:48 pm |
  51. vhalen

    I am for the following candidates in this order. Romney, Santorum, Paul, Obama. I can live with about any candidate in any party...just so long as its not Newt. Anything but Newt. I am surprised so may comments think Romney is a 'salesman', but if I am going to buy something, he strikes me as a moral person, good ideas, and leadership or record of being able to achieve those ideas. His Wealth is no reason to be lambasted, or we might as well kick out all the candidates, business leaders, celebrities and athletes....starting with Oprah!

    January 29, 2012 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  52. johnborg

    If Santorum would drop out and endorse Gingrich, Gingrich would probably get the nomination (and I'm sure Santorum would get a nice job in the administration). The next few states, such as Nevada and Maine, aren't really Religious Right type of states, so I'm not sure how Gingrich will do. But the entire middle of the country, Texas to N. Dakota is easily won by Gingrich.

    January 29, 2012 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  53. cisom

    Obama will not balance the national debt because his supporters hardly care about it. Mitt put Massachusetts back on financial track, his supporters expect him to balance the budget. He is our best chance for fiscal sanity.

    January 29, 2012 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  54. nathan

    Electability lol? The latest NBC/WSJ poll has Obama over Mitt 49 – 43% nationally.

    January 29, 2012 05:18 pm at 5:18 pm |
  55. Kingfisher

    If 11% of the state wants Ron Paul for president he should receive 5 delegates. Just as in SC where 60% of the votes were thrown in the trash. The election process is nothing but a sham to install the RNC's choice. America is dead.

    January 29, 2012 05:20 pm at 5:20 pm |
  56. Randy, San Francisco

    Not surprising that Romney is holding a lead because of the support of the GOP establishment and Wall Street money. As a member of the 1% of wealthiest Americans, you would expect him to buy the nomination.

    January 29, 2012 05:33 pm at 5:33 pm |
  57. Peace

    In the last nomination cycle, Romney was clever enough and quited before burning a lot of his fortune. This time he pretends everything is OK while it is not. Come Nov. he is going to regret very much how brutal and unfair it is, to try occupying the highest Office on earth!

    January 29, 2012 05:37 pm at 5:37 pm |
  58. Conservatism

    I don't get it. We have a proven conservative candidate in Rick Santorum and carry's little baggage, if any. The majority of the population want to get rid of Obamacare and they are supporting candidates that have supported components and modeled Romneycare? We need a clear cut distinction to Obama or the Republicans are going to lose again. When will this party learn Conservatism wins elections not electability.

    January 29, 2012 05:44 pm at 5:44 pm |
  59. brian

    yes, and the polls also show that people believe that Elvis is still alive.

    January 29, 2012 05:45 pm at 5:45 pm |
  60. yogi

    GOP: Screaming to cover how very dumb they are. No class, no integrity, no dignity.
    There is only one solution: Obama 2012

    January 29, 2012 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  61. angel611

    Great!
    Now if Obama was not leading the election by 65% and 35% of Republicans did not say they do not want any of the candidates,, this story might be worth reading.

    January 29, 2012 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  62. Macmaven

    Either one will lose to Obama due to catering to the status quo and having too many skeletons waiting to burst out of the closet upon cross examination. What a waste of campaign dollars.

    January 29, 2012 05:49 pm at 5:49 pm |
  63. curt

    Romney Shmomney he is one of those people that got so lucky in his career that thinks anyone can do what he did.... Profit off cutting thousands off jobs

    January 29, 2012 05:51 pm at 5:51 pm |
  64. curt

    Romney he is one of those people that got so lucky in his career that thinks anyone can do what he did.... Profit off cutting thousands of jobs

    January 29, 2012 05:51 pm at 5:51 pm |
  65. Hair bear

    Well it looks like Mittens just might buy this one! I still think if floridians wake up and smell the roses, they just may come to there senses and vote for Newt!

    January 29, 2012 05:53 pm at 5:53 pm |
  66. billy

    They both say everthing that you want to hear. Sounds just like Obama promise you the moon for your vote -fact ;-)

    January 29, 2012 05:53 pm at 5:53 pm |
  67. chainsmoker

    Isn't it nice how our leaders are picked by whoever has the MOST MONEY. Forget values, morals and common sense (war, fiscal responsibility, ect). Why don't we just vote for the guys who made millions off our foreclosed homes? Good job, America! Keep making wise decisions!

    RON PAUL 2012

    January 29, 2012 06:05 pm at 6:05 pm |
  68. Four and The Door

    mirrorlogic
    ...So go ahead and ignore the offshore accounts, the errors in the federal filing form, and ruthless corporate vulture mentality that will cut our families job – and vote for the dude with the nice smile.
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________
    The dude with the nice smile and a plan for America that gets the economy back in growth mode, puts people back to work and actually reverses the runaway debt level instead of continuously raising the ceiling. America really has no choice but to do these things. The future of our nation is too important to squander on hopes that we can find enough billionaires to tax our way through perpetual mismanagement. Unemployment was not a program intended for 99 week benefits.

    Mitt Romney has the management skills, the understanding of real-life economics and the vision of our future to guide America back where it is working for everyone, not just the bankers and politicians. I will admit...he is not a slob. He is a reliable, intelligent and ambitious man ready for the challenge of getting this country back on track.

    January 29, 2012 06:05 pm at 6:05 pm |
  69. Anonymous

    i was ready to hit the road for Romney. Now, i don't know...

    January 29, 2012 06:26 pm at 6:26 pm |
  70. whoppi

    obama or romney , they are one in the same

    January 29, 2012 06:36 pm at 6:36 pm |