Florida polls show Romney retaining lead
January 29th, 2012
11:35 AM ET
3 years ago

Florida polls show Romney retaining lead

(CNN) – New polls released over the weekend show Mitt Romney maintaining a lead over this three Republican presidential rivals in the final days before Tuesday's Florida primary.

The former Massachusetts governor leads former House Speaker Newt Gingrich by double digits in the surveys, while former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum trails the pair. Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who has chosen not to campaign in Florida and spent Saturday in Maine, is further behind the pack.

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One poll that came out Sunday morning and straddled the Thursday night CNN debate in Jacksonville, showed Romney at 42%, Gingrich at 27%, Santorum at 16% and Paul at 11%.

If Santorum were to leave the race, the NBC News/Marist poll showed Romney and Gingrich splitting his support, with Romney's backing rising to 49% and Gingrich's to 33%.

According to the poll results from after the CNN debate, Santorum got a 5% boost while Romney lost three percentage points and Gingrich dropped four points. Paul's support didn't change following the debate.

Romney also led in a Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 survey of likely GOP voters conducted Jan. 24 through Jan. 26 – before the CNN debate – and released Saturday evening. Romney received 42% to 31% for Gingrich, 14% for Santorum and 6% for Paul.

And an American Research Group survey, taken entirely after the latest televised debate, showed Romney in the top spot with 43% support from likely GOP primary voters, followed by Gingrich with 32%, Santorum with 11% and Paul with 8%.

A last-minute surge would have less of an impact in Florida, which allows early voting and absentee ballots for the primary, than in some other states. So far, more than 400,000 votes have been cast, according to the Florida Department of State.

The NBC survey of 3,141 likely Republican primary voters was conducted between Jan. 25 and Jan. 27, and has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. The Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll of 800 people has a sampling error is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. The ARG survey of 600 likely GOP voters was conducted between Jan. 27 and Jan. 28 with a sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Also see:

Florida governor: Why Latinos back Romney

Santorum cancels events after admitting daughter to hospital

Voight, McCain join Romney for lighthearted rally

Ron Paul's caucus focus


Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Newt Gingrich • Rick Santorum • Ron Paul
soundoff (70 Responses)
  1. Rudy NYC

    Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are both ideologically promiscuous. Take your pick conservatives. They both say everthing that you want to hear. Romney is a basically a salesman. Gingrich is basically a sold man.

    January 29, 2012 11:40 am at 11:40 am |
  2. vic , nashville ,tn

    Newt is leading in National poll. We knew only Romney has money to win Florida Republicans

    January 29, 2012 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
  3. nolimits3333

    Could the contrast be any greater between the guy who looted American companies and shipped their jobs overseas and only pays taxes at a 13% rate, and our president who wants the wealthy to pay taxes at the same rate as the rest of us. Romney is the poster child for welfare for the wealthy. Why should the idle rich, who don't work, pay taxes at a lower rate than those who do work?

    January 29, 2012 11:53 am at 11:53 am |
  4. Victoria avgam54

    Mitt is a Twitt and Newt is a Beaut... end of story. Vote for Obama

    January 29, 2012 11:56 am at 11:56 am |
  5. Just a thought

    ...yep as Rudy said....just another pit stop in the GOP/Tea Clown Car parade. Take your pick conservatives! The variety of silliness and mistruths is endless
    Obama 2012

    January 29, 2012 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  6. westward

    If people are hellbent on voting (R) – what IS the best choice within that category? If you are a senior, a minority, a female, a student/teacher/fireman, etc. – you are actually hurting yourself by voting (R).

    One more point – the AARP have blasted the Paul Ryan plan in the past because it hurts seniors – Mitt Romney is adamant about implementing the Paul Ryan plan – Where are they now? Why are seniors falling all over themselves to vote against themselves now? It's just outright sad.

    January 29, 2012 12:00 pm at 12:00 pm |
  7. YEAH

    Don't you guys worry about the National Poll because after Romney wins in Florida next Tuesday, the NATIONAL POLL will go for Romney...yeah yeah yeah...GO ROMNEY 2012!!

    January 29, 2012 12:09 pm at 12:09 pm |
  8. Rick McDaniel

    Romney is running such a "dirty tricks" campaign, that I will NOT be able to support him, at all. if he wins the nomination, he will NOT get my vote in the general election.

    I see exactly what he was accused of, in his business background..........a ruthless corporate raider, who will say anything to win, just as he would do anything to profit.

    January 29, 2012 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  9. mirrorlogic

    ...and there is the reason Santorum stayed in the race...to block NEWT for Romney. Politics at its finest. Watch how Santorum is rewarded in the end.

    January 29, 2012 12:28 pm at 12:28 pm |
  10. mirrorlogic

    ...if Santorum had dropped...throw a good portion of Santorum's conservative votes toward NEWT (as most polls show tat would be the case as they can't or won't go for Willard Mitt)...and this thing becomes a head-to-head political horse race. That is why Romney wanted him to stick around...now watch the pay-off in the end when Santorum is rewarded (paid off) by the establishment. Tis-tis so many people can't see through the game Romney and the big-boys are playing.

    January 29, 2012 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  11. mirrorlogic

    Congrats ladies (generalized statement not meant to insult - only that is the voting segment mainly backing the slick tall looking guy in the race) (as many polls confirm)...you have once again determined a political race based on smoke-and-mirrors, and outward appearance. Willard Mitt is slick...you only have to see the hair to know it. There is a reason a majority of men sense it too. So go ahead and ignore the offshore accounts, the errors in the federal filing form, and ruthless corporate vulture mentality that will cut our families job - and vote for the dude with the nice smile.

    January 29, 2012 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  12. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    After Mittens spent over $15 million in negative ads to trash his opponents, it will be good to get back to our more pleasant obnoxious Kia ads on Wednesday.

    January 29, 2012 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  13. enuff

    They've all had their hands caught in the cookie jar at one time or another. What a sad state of affairs, when all we have to vote for is who is the "least" dishonest candidate.

    January 29, 2012 12:57 pm at 12:57 pm |
  14. Chuck McClish

    Obama, Gingrich, Romney, they are all the same. Foreign intervention won't stop. Saber rattling with Iran will increase. Guantanamo will stay open. The Patriot Act and latest NDAA will keep their present form. The national debt will increase.

    When will people realize that the left/right battle is irrelevant? Whether you love him or hate him, the only candidate that stands for real change is Ron Paul.

    January 29, 2012 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |
  15. Mitten Polls are lies

    Romney the swiss bank candidate that says corporations are people to but dont need to pay people taxes, can honestly say he pumped millions into CNN and the Polls to peddle influence the Polls to favor him in Florida. an old trick of Gingrich. interesting. Conservative Corporatism Daily ~

    January 29, 2012 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  16. Jeetu

    None of these four guys of the republican party are worthy to be President of USA. I will not vote for anyone.

    The polls are a joke and should not be conducted and announced with such speed. If the media wishes to influence the elections, there are other better ways to serve the public. But, the polls innfluences votes, particularly of those who are are undecided. I think this is wromg and should be avoided.

    January 29, 2012 01:38 pm at 1:38 pm |
  17. jilli

    Romney leads over Gingrich, and President Obama has pretty substantial leads on them both.

    January 29, 2012 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  18. WhereIsPalin

    "A last-minute surge would have less of an impact in Florida....."

    Why would there be a last minute surge? You're choosing the GOP candidate for president. Shouldn't you know by now who to support?

    January 29, 2012 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |
  19. Heather

    The polls also show that Romney has the best chance of beating Obama. This economy is hurting Americans and we need a president who is brilliant with finances and economic issues.

    January 29, 2012 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  20. gimmesometruth

    Trump for President. Anyone but Romney.

    January 29, 2012 02:33 pm at 2:33 pm |
  21. My name is Jose Jimenez

    Time for Ricky to pack it in. Paul is doing nearly as good and he isn't even actively campaigning in Florida. Just let the other clowns know you want the VP slot and go back to Pennsylvania.

    January 29, 2012 02:44 pm at 2:44 pm |
  22. Newt is Going to the Convention

    Florida is weird state, where republicans are beholden to the "establishment". The support for Mitt is not as far reaching as he would like people to believe. Newt is going to keep fighting after Florida and will eventually edge out Mitt nationally.

    January 29, 2012 02:56 pm at 2:56 pm |
  23. VegasBankrolled

    Newt's Campaign has gone SO BADLY that he has been completely bankrolled by 1 casino billionaire. Obama tried to waltz into Washington with a congress and senate that hated him and he got NOTHING DONE!!! Mitt has the backing of over 4 times the number of currently sitting congress men and women with whom he can GET HIS IDEAS PASSED ON DAY ONE. I'll vote for a proven financial genius (Romney) over a disgraced politician's promises of a United States of America and the Moon, all the way to the White House.

    January 29, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  24. RockoT

    Romney is not conservative – period. So, we want him to lose, but I think we all know that the other choices are also not fiscally conservative.

    Heck even conservative icons like Reagan, ballooned the federal budget and engaged in relentless deficit spending.

    So – as fun as it was to vote against Romney – he lost Iowa. He lost South Carolina, ultimatley to defeat Romney there would have to be a fiscal conservative alternative.

    Paul is that – but people don't like his stance on social issues. Still – I think the only thing left to do is continue voting for Paul.

    I mean – as much as I don't want Romney to win, eventually you have to consider that you don't really want Newt to win either, and I sure as heck don't want Santorum to win.

    All 3 are big government – promise anything, deficit spend types. They want to say they aren't as bad as Obama though.

    Really? Really 13,000 people on the moon- really? 100,000+ new troops really? VAT tax really?

    January 29, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  25. ToughUSA

    Breaking News Ron Paul Initiates Global Debate
    'Endorse Liberty' Super PAC to Broadcast 30 Minute Ron Paul TV Special in Florida
    Pacs buying 30 min time slots in florida
    Google It (EndorseLiberty) UNBELIEVABLE !!!!!!

    January 29, 2012 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
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