New Poll: All knotted up in Michigan
February 22nd, 2012
08:11 AM ET
2 years ago

New Poll: All knotted up in Michigan

Mesa, Arizona (CNN) – Six days before crucial Republican presidential primaries in Michigan and Arizona, new polls indicate it's all tied up in Michigan between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, with Romney leading Santorum in Arizona.

According to an NBC News-Marist survey released Wednesday morning, 37% of people likely to vote in Michigan's Republican presidential primary say they are backing former Massachusetts Gov. Romney, with 35% supporting former Sen. Santorum of Pennsylvania. Romney's two-point advantage is well within the poll's sampling error. The survey indicates that 13% are backing Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, with 8% supporting former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

CNN LIVE: Tune in Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET for the last presidential debate before Super Tuesday, the CNN/Arizona Republican Party Debate hosted by John King. Follow it on Twitter at #CNNDebate and on Facebook at CNN Politics. For real-time coverage of the Arizona and Michigan primaries, go to CNNPolitics.com or to the CNN apps or CNN mobile web site.

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Polls released last week in Michigan indicated Santorum with a slight lead over Romney.

Santorum surged in state and national polling after sweeping the February 7th contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

Michigan, where Romney was born and his father served as governor of the state in the 1960s, is turning into a make-or-break state for him to win. The 30 delegates up for grabs in Michigan's February 28 primary will be divided proportionally.

In Arizona, which holds its primary on the same day as Michigan, Romney appears to have a larger lead, according to the NBC News-Marist survey. Forty-three percent of people likely to vote in the state's GOP presidential contest say they are backing Romney, with 27% supporting Santorum, 16% backing Gingrich and 11% behind Paul.

A CNN/Time/ORC poll released Tuesday indicated a closer race in Arizona, with Romney at 36%, Santorum at 32%, Gingrich at 18% and Paul at 6%. Romney's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

The 29 delegates at stake in Arizona will be winner-take-all.

The NBC News-Marist survey's release comes just hours before the four candidates face off at a GOP presidential debate hosted by CNN and the Republican Party of Arizona at the Mesa Arts Center.

Looking ahead to the general election, the survey indicates President Barack Obama holding double digit leads over his GOP competitors in hypothetical November matchups, with Obama slightly trailing the leading Republicans in Arizona.

The NBC News-Marist poll in Michigan was conducted February 19-20, with 3,149 registered voters, including 715 likely Republican primary voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for GOP primary questions is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, with an overall sampling error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

The NBC News-Marist poll in Arizona was conducted February 19-20, with 2,487 registered voters, including 767 likely Republican primary voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error for GOP primary questions is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, with an overall sampling error of two percentage points.

– Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @PSteinhauserCNN

Also see:

Graham clarifies remarks on Obama's faith

Support from men and evangelicals boosts Santorum nationally

The Detroit News endorses Romney

soundoff (11 Responses)
  1. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Boy, they finally succeeded in getting their voting base as confused as they themselves are. Imagine the "Son of Detroit" whose grandfather thrice removed once used an auto-dealer's restroom NOT winning his "home" state.
    These people all deserve each other. I'm glad there's not enough of them to make any difference in our lives as we move our country forward. Happily more and more of them are waking up and jumping ship everyday. Welcome.
    Obama 2012.

    February 22, 2012 08:17 am at 8:17 am |
  2. GROVER NORQUIST IS AN ENEMY OF THE STATE

    The astonishing part of this poll is that Mitt can't pull away. There is nothing he can say or do right now that is going to sway voters in Michigan. This is the man who bet against Detroit. And he claims to be one of them? Ha!!!

    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
    ELIZABETH WARREN 2012 & BEYOND

    February 22, 2012 08:24 am at 8:24 am |
  3. Brennan

    Mitt "Look what I bought....."

    February 22, 2012 08:28 am at 8:28 am |
  4. ST

    The more Santorum talks, the more people realise that he is not the kind of a person they thought he was. He is too extreme and this will not advance him further.

    February 22, 2012 08:30 am at 8:30 am |
  5. Todd in DC

    The most conservative candidate may win the GOP nomination, but no way he will win the general election. And no way a GOP moderate will win the GOP nomination.

    February 22, 2012 08:34 am at 8:34 am |
  6. diridi

    If I have to choose, I chose, Romney, than the other guy. Very much likely both are no good to the nation. If I have to advise Mitt, I advise him to stay focused for Middle Class, not repealing health care, fin. reg. reform, STOCK ACT, Consumer Protection reform, ESCHIP, DADT legislation, etc, Concentrate on Middle Class Americans. Middle Class is so crushed by the wrath wagon of Greed by Corporate America. True, True, True, So they are fed-up with Republicans. God bless. This Election is all about Rich v/s Middle Class America.

    February 22, 2012 08:40 am at 8:40 am |
  7. king

    It seems to me that when mitten close his chap and santorum open his the positive swing goes to mitten, a matter of fact any time any of these gaff prone republicans open their mouth they have people thinking, is this this Guy we want to represent us in the free world.

    February 22, 2012 09:10 am at 9:10 am |
  8. Charlie from the North

    These two guys are even starting to look alike. Neither of them is close to Obama on substance or style. I only hope voter turnout is high enough to keep either of the crybabies out of the White House.

    February 22, 2012 09:24 am at 9:24 am |
  9. Rudy NYC

    It looks like the Not-Romney candidate is going to win the GOP nomination. The only question is, "Who will it be?"

    February 22, 2012 09:30 am at 9:30 am |
  10. Marshall

    I'm not championing Romney, but it's good news that the citizens of the great state of Michigan are trending toward Romney and not Torquemada (Santorum) the inquisitor.

    February 22, 2012 10:41 am at 10:41 am |
  11. Larry L

    Republicans offer such a weak field Michigan will support President Obama – the candidate who believed in the auto industry and fought against Republican efforts to let them go under.

    February 22, 2012 10:52 am at 10:52 am |