New Poll: All tied up in Michigan
February 23rd, 2012
11:44 AM ET
2 years ago

New Poll: All tied up in Michigan

(CNN) – With five days until Michigan's GOP presidential primary, a new poll indicates Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are still tied for the top spot, but it appears the order has changed.

According to an American Research Group survey released Thursday, 38% of people likely to vote in Michigan's February 28 Republican primary say they are backing Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania, with 34% supporting Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. Santorum's four point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

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Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is at 12%, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%, and 8% undecided.

According to an NBC News-Marist survey released Wednesday morning, 37% of people likely to vote in Michigan's Republican presidential primary said they're backing Romney, with 35% supporting Santorum. Romney's two-point advantage was well within the poll's sampling error. The survey indicated that 13% are backing Paul of Texas, with 8% supporting former Gingrich.

Both polls were conducted before Wednesday night's presidential debate in Mesa, Arizona that was hosted by CNN and the Republican Party of Arizona.

Santorum surged in state and national polling after sweeping the February 7th contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri. Michigan, where Romney was born and his father served as governor of the state in the 1960s, is turning into a make-or-break state for him. The 30 delegates up for grabs will be divided proportionally.

In Arizona, which holds its primary on the same day as Michigan, Romney appears to have a larger lead, according to the latest surveys.

In ARG's Michigan poll, Santorum leads Romney 49%-31% among likely Republican primary voters who describe themselves as supporters of the tea party movement, with Romney edging out Santorum 36%-30% among those who say they are not tea party supporters.

Santorum leads among men 39%-30% over Romney, with Romney edging out Santorum 39%-36% among women.

The American Research Group poll was conducted Feb. 21-22, with 600 likely GOP primary voters in Michigan questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

– Follow Paul Steinhauser on Twitter: @PsteinhauserCNN

Also see:

Five things we learned from Wednesday's debate

Detroit Free Press endorses Romney

Candidates enter critical phase after possible final debate

Obama to talk energy and gas prices at Miami speech


Filed under: Michigan • Mitt Romney • Polls
soundoff (24 Responses)
  1. Nothing new here

    The GOP should use their "plan B" on this abomination called Santorum.
    "Retroactive abortion" would be most fitting in this case.
    And this is coming from someone that does not approve of abortion being used as birth control.

    February 23, 2012 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  2. SOUTHERN HOTTIE

    Cuckoo bird and Flip Flopper. What a pair.

    February 23, 2012 11:51 am at 11:51 am |
  3. neine, neine, neine

    Romney looks like, acts like and has the know how to be President. His debating skills are getting better and better but he has the goods to go with it.

    February 23, 2012 11:54 am at 11:54 am |
  4. Nothing new here

    I have spent quality time venting my disapproval for the current GOP.

    Nelson Rockefeller, and many other great Republicans of the past, would need emergency medical care, if they were alive to see this living nightmare.
    What a disgrace to this country.

    February 23, 2012 11:54 am at 11:54 am |
  5. F-Gingrich

    neine, neine, neine

    Romney looks like, acts like and has the know how to be President. His debating skills are getting better and better but he has the goods to go with it.

    Yeah....President Bush!

    February 23, 2012 11:57 am at 11:57 am |
  6. WatchDawg

    Of course they are...all we had to do was let Santorum continue to talk...LOL

    February 23, 2012 12:10 pm at 12:10 pm |
  7. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    1.Nothing new here

    The GOP should use their "plan B" on this abomination called Santorum.
    "Retroactive abortion" would be most fitting in this case
    ------------------------
    So long as they are at it, might as well just go full hog. Nothing worth saving here, and it would ensure that they NEVER reproduce,again.
    Which reminds me:
    Which one of these braintrusts said last night that 40% of children were being born into single parent households, ESPECIALLY IN A PARTICULAR ETHNIC GROUP?
    They just don't know when to shut up, when to stop shooting themselves, or when to quit.
    Obama 2012.

    February 23, 2012 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  8. NVa Native

    As predicted the Satanorun insane surge of fear and bigotry starting to sputter.
    His eighteenth century war on American social and religious freedoms will soon come to an end – good riddance.
    Next!

    February 23, 2012 12:20 pm at 12:20 pm |
  9. Rudy NYC

    How smart is Rick Santorum? I think he will show us, by how he conducts his campaign over the next ten days, or so. Just before his 3 state "win", he was talking about the economy and he was rising in the polls. After the wins he kept on right rising, until he started talking about social issues with no sugar coating. It came across as if he was using his new found popularity to push his true agenda. Santorum became equated with radical right wing social engineering. That is when his rise stopped, and reversed itself. So, I ask again. How smart is Rick Santorum?

    February 23, 2012 12:22 pm at 12:22 pm |
  10. Davidplatter

    Ron Paul must be on the ticket for the GOP to be able to take Obama down. A Ron Paul Romney ticket would do it. With Romney being trained by Ron Paul he can run as president in the next election.

    Ron Paul will crush Obama if he is even allowed to run again and a candidate who is not a natural born citizen. Looks like the preponderance of evidence that he is a fraud is mounting quickly.

    Forged birth certificate, wrong SSN sequencing wrong name of hospital for time, places that changed names after his birth that did not exist at the time of birth, grandma pointing out where he was born in Kenya and on and on. He should be impeached and put in jail for fraud yesterday. What is sad is the media will not talk about it and are assisting in the cover up.

    February 23, 2012 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  11. Hahahaha

    The polling makes it clear what's going on – Santorum was headed for a win in MI until his position on birth control became known. Now women - conservative Republican women - are going to shut him down. As a Dem I'm sorry but as a woman I'm proud. You go girls!

    February 23, 2012 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm |
  12. Thomas

    Rick Santorum / Michele Bachmann
    2012
    Sarah Palin Secretary of State.
    Darrell Issa Secretary of Defense
    Jim Inhofe Secretary of Energy and the Interior ( a TwoFor )
    Louie Gohmert Secrotary of Homeland Security
    Virginia Foxx Secretary of Health and Education
    Joe Wilson Secretary of the Treasury

    True Believers for Change

    February 23, 2012 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  13. BeverlyNC

    Hate them all but would love to see Romney lose Michigan since he betrayed the state of his birther and the car industry where his father was President of Chrysler. Romney grew up a child of wealth due to his father's job at Chrysler but wanted to let the whole Amerian car industry die and all the jobs with it die.
    President Obama saved it. Romney had NOTHING to do with it as he claims for there was NO private capital available then (thanks to the Republican bank failures) so the government had to loan them money so they could survive. It was a wonderful compromise between the unions, GM, and the government where everyone won.
    The government got its loan money back. GM is now the #1 car company in the world with its highest profits ever, and more than 2M jobs were saved within GM and through the supply companies who worked with GM.
    The execs are even giving the WORKERS the bonus money – about $27K per average line worker.
    It all worked out beautifully and everyone involved WON.
    Republicans hate we saved a whole American industry and still claim it was a failure. They will not give President Obama credit for anything that helps the American People.
    Hope the Michigan voters properly thank Romney for abandoning them and wanting them to fail!

    February 23, 2012 12:50 pm at 12:50 pm |
  14. Charlene

    Santorum cannot beat Obama. With all the cheating going on at the voting sites, the Republicans will need a very strong candidate and a machine that out runs the opposing side. Today Obama is telling everybody not to worry because he has five more years to make good on his promises....Are his nasty friends at work at cheating again, or he just full of himself.

    February 23, 2012 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  15. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Since republican on behalf of divisiveness, have attacked everyone including women, seniors, middle class, poor, veterans, workers, college students, the uninsured, minorities, and the environment; the only chance they have to win in November is to suppress the vote.

    February 23, 2012 12:52 pm at 12:52 pm |
  16. ROFL

    Mitt and Santorum are jokes. Michigan is a blue state...GO BLUE !!!

    February 23, 2012 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
  17. Woman In California

    Santorum blew ANY chance he had against Willard last night. Not only was he UNprepared for most of the questions – he also failed to look Willard in the face when he spoke. Not once did he make direct eye contact when attacking. This made him look extremely weak and scared and he will pay dearly for that mistake.

    February 23, 2012 12:54 pm at 12:54 pm |
  18. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    Davidplatter
    Forged birth certificate, wrong SSN sequencing wrong name of hospital for time, places that changed names after his birth that did not exist at the time of birth, grandma pointing out where he was born in Kenya and on and on. He should be impeached and put in jail for fraud yesterday. What is sad is the media will not talk about it and are assisting in the cover up.
    ------------------------
    I agree David!! And as such I feel it is YOUR civic duty to personally bring Obama up on charges. Maybe a citizen's arrest might be the ticket. What do you think dude? You game?

    February 23, 2012 12:55 pm at 12:55 pm |
  19. Rudy NYC

    Davidplatter wrote:

    Forged birth certificate, wrong SSN sequencing wrong name of hospital for time, places that changed names after his birth that did not exist at the time of birth, grandma pointing out where he was born in Kenya and on and on. He should be impeached and put in jail for fraud yesterday. What is sad is the media will not talk about it and are assisting in the cover up.
    --------------
    Let's assume that all of that stuff is true. Just for a moment. Presidiential elections are conducted by the Presidiential Election Committee, which is convened and run by the administration in the White House. Okay? What is sad is that you don't realize that it was GWB's PEC that ultimately certified Barack Obama's credentials to be POTUS.

    So, if you want to know why the media won't talk about the cover up, you can join the club and blame Bush. But, he's been blamed for enough already. I guess they've decided to give him a free pass on this one. It would make Republicans look bad all over again.

    February 23, 2012 01:00 pm at 1:00 pm |
  20. Milo

    Newt was the only one trying to focus on the real issue of beating obama. Santorum and Romney were too busy attacking each other to do any good, Ron Paul was well, hes just a nut job and shouldn't even be there. Its kind of sad how the media is saturating us with Santorum and Romney. I may not care for Ron Paul but him and Newt are there as well. Dont let the biased media choose for you.

    February 23, 2012 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |
  21. Really?!?

    When will the Tea Party learn their only candidate in this race is Ron Paul. They need to come home to the Paul camp...

    February 23, 2012 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
  22. Michael

    You will not be able to tax your way out of the mess you made the people will turn on you because your a bum by definaion a perisite.

    February 23, 2012 01:21 pm at 1:21 pm |
  23. B

    It is appalling that Romney can even show his face in Michigan after calling for the Auto Companies to go through Bankruptcies that he knows where not possible at the time! There where NO banks in a position at the time to solve that and that it required the Government to step in to Save It.

    Romney is, as Huntsman said, the best "lubricated weathervane" around and will say anything to sound good to the current audience..

    I wouldn’t trust Romney to walk my dog.

    February 23, 2012 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  24. Scarab

    Democrats and Republicans have a lot in common, they both dislike the GOP candidates.

    February 23, 2012 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |