Poll: No lock in Illinois GOP battle
March 11th, 2012
11:26 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: No lock in Illinois GOP battle

(CNN) – It's a close race in Illinois between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, according to a new poll ahead of the state's March 20 primary.

The Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV poll released late Saturday night showed Romney with 35% support among likely Republican voters, slightly ahead of Santorum's 31%. The difference fell within the poll's sampling error. Newt Gingrich trailed with 12% and Ron Paul received 7%.

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However, 46% of those surveyed said they could change their minds before Election Day, when 54 delegates are at stake.

Voters in the Land of Lincoln State will choose after primaries Tuesday in Alabama and Mississippi and caucuses on March 17 in Missouri.

The Illinois poll, taken before Santorum won the Kansas caucuses Saturday, indicated Romney with the edge in Chicago suburbs and Santorum with more support in counties outside the state's most populous city.

Santorum led Romney among very conservative voters in the state, 42% to 29%, while Romney beat Santorum among moderate Republicans, 39% to 17%. The 40% of voters who considered themselves fairly conservative were statistically split – with Romney receiving 36% to 32% for Santorum, a gap within the sampling error.

In addition, Santorum prevailed among those who described themselves as born-again or evangelical Christians, and topped Romney among voters earning less than $100,000 annually, although the results also fell within the sampling error.

Romney led among those who do not consider themselves born-again or evangelical Christians, voters 50 years of age or older, suburban women and those with incomes over $100,000 a year.

Sen. John McCain captured the state during the 2008 GOP presidential primary with 47% of the vote to Romney's 29%. Then-candidate Mike Huckabee picked up 16% and Paul received 5%.

The Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV surveyed 600 registered Republicans between March 7 and March 9 with a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Also see:

Gingrich pins hopes on hashtags

Santorum blasts Gingrich over 'Romneycare'

Santorum wins Kansas caucuses; Romney touts delegate gains

Gingrich calls for Panetta resignation


Filed under: 2012 • Illinois • Mitt Romney • Polls • Rick Santorum
soundoff (24 Responses)
  1. Namejkane fl live from teapublican moon base no taxes, no regulation no health care, free gas.

    Republicans lose in Nov landslide for DEMS, moron republican propaganda ends up not working, to bad. Republicans should be thrown out of government at all levels., thank you to teaparty morons.

    March 11, 2012 11:33 am at 11:33 am |
  2. ourjungle

    Santorum....bringing in the sheep is one thing, fixing a broken economy another. Our Nation needs a President,and a Congress that can,and will fix the broken Economy. We do not need (at this time) a President to fix our Salvation.

    March 11, 2012 11:54 am at 11:54 am |
  3. Obama is a loser!

    Anybody but Obama in 2012

    March 11, 2012 11:58 am at 11:58 am |
  4. chuck weidemann

    Newt is the odd man out.....again!!! When will republican voters see that if they don't like Romney that dividing the votes between Newt and Little Ricky only give Romney the ammo to stay the front runner. Still a 3 ring circus!!! Ignorance knows no limits!!!

    March 11, 2012 11:59 am at 11:59 am |
  5. vic , nashville ,tn

    By End of June Romney campaign will worn out So Palin /Newt 2012

    March 11, 2012 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  6. clarke

    Did you notice that people with less education vote for Rick and people with a higher education vote for Mitt. Wonder what that means?

    March 11, 2012 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  7. GI Joe.

    8.3% Unemployed = 91.7% Employed.

    March 11, 2012 12:15 pm at 12:15 pm |
  8. GI Joe.

    ABR = Anybody but Republican 2012.

    March 11, 2012 12:16 pm at 12:16 pm |
  9. T'sah from Virginia

    ◄◄This is in response to an earlier blog about the soldier killing innocent civilians in Afghanistan; it is not different than “kids” – here in America – taking a gun and shooting other students in schools. A person under “pressure” – with access to a “gun” – will do things that are out of the ordinary.

    Is the soldier “innocent” because of the pressures he is under? Is a student “innocent” because of the pressures he may have been under at the time he shot innocent students? In both instances, the act of “murder” was wrong…………PERIOD and they are “both” guilty!! If they were “sick” at the time, then they are still “guilty” of murder but should be treated for their illness. What bothered me was the “blame act” that will come out of this. NO ONE should “blame” the President – nor should anyone “blame” the Afghan civilians.

    I will pray for this soldier and hopefully we will get answers to “what makes him and others like him – TICK!!!”

    Obama 2012 – our Commander in Chief – The Only Trusted Way Forward!!

    March 11, 2012 12:23 pm at 12:23 pm |
  10. all republicans slither on their bellies

    Doesn't matter who gets repube nomination illinois democrats shoot them down illinois won't bow to koch bros and big money right to work for less propaganda. If you reap what a union sows then you should be required to pay union dues. If not you should be fired and kicked out on your freeloading scab ass.Quit the republican attack on average working americans. Take a look at every state that has a republican governer they are attacking american workers. Why? Because the koch bros big money influence on these governers. Stop this attack and vote straight democrat locally and nationally.let illinois lead the way on wiping out republican attacks on workers

    March 11, 2012 12:24 pm at 12:24 pm |
  11. Debbie

    Can't wait to see how this circus plays out. Is Romney going to play to the major wealthy financial crowd or will he don a doo rag and play to the other crowd. He's got grits and ya'll down so I can't wait to see him do the doo rag. That is going to be a photo moment! Santorum on the other hand can't play to the educated side (his anti-education) so will he hit Chicago's Southside? Ooooh that will be fun! Tell those young women there to hold an aspirin between their legs. LOL!

    March 11, 2012 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
  12. Patrick from Minnesota

    Republicans might as well throw in the towel right now. The economy is improving, people are going back to work and Republican voters are unexicted and hate their candidates. They would be wise to save themselves some time and money and throw it all to theit 2016 campaign where might have a chance of winning.

    March 11, 2012 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  13. Dvet

    The nopubics believe hn the right to work for less state. Terminate a person with or without cause. Violation of 14th amendment. that soldier snapped. PTSD no more war. Obama 2012

    March 11, 2012 01:11 pm at 1:11 pm |
  14. Mark from Schaumburg IL.

    The real race to watch will be for Joe Walsh's seat in the House. He narrowly defeated Melissa Bean, and two Democrats are running for the opportunity to take the seat back. For those unfamiliar, Walsh is the guy who is being targeted for being behind in child support more than 100k. Joe Walsh is a Tea Party favorite.

    March 11, 2012 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  15. hankers

    Romney will need to pander to the left fringe of Santorum base to secure nomination, and in doing so will paint himself as further right than he likely is. Should make for some juicy Dem ads this fall showing Romney the flip-flopper.

    March 11, 2012 01:46 pm at 1:46 pm |
  16. cali girl

    Just say no to the haters. Haters of women, immigrants, gays, educated, rights to health and rights to better yourself.

    March 11, 2012 01:51 pm at 1:51 pm |
  17. JT

    I always love how the media interprets these polls. If Romney's up 4 points its always close or a tie. But, if Santorum is up 4 points then Santorum is winning. With it being mathmatically impossible for Santorum to win, these stories are getting old.

    March 11, 2012 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  18. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    Let it be muddy and bloody until the end. I think that It will be a problem when it comes to the convention. I don't know if there is one candidate that can really speak to the whole of the country to defeat Obama. It will be a hard sell for any one of them to really get it across to the American public.

    March 11, 2012 02:17 pm at 2:17 pm |
  19. Charlie from the North

    "GOP/ Tea Party 2012" : Digging a tunnel to the 15th century.

    March 11, 2012 02:20 pm at 2:20 pm |
  20. Phyllis

    I was independent who was looking for a decent option from the GOP. Romney seemed possible, but he has moved to far right he seems like all the other right-wing nuts. Don't know what I will do. Might have to vote for Obama again, although I hate his pro-illegal immigration policies.

    March 11, 2012 03:13 pm at 3:13 pm |
  21. Anonymous

    Go Rick and stop Rove from ramming Rmoney down our throat.

    March 11, 2012 03:14 pm at 3:14 pm |
  22. Peace

    I will be delighted to know what percentage of young voters are showing up to vote for either Romney or Santorum. Are all of them flocking to Ron Paul?

    March 11, 2012 03:25 pm at 3:25 pm |
  23. curious fan

    When push comes to shove,,,,Romney will WIN the nomination and the general election! People have had it with Pelosi, Reid, Chucky Schumer,,,AND OBAMA...........so a few more employed doesn't bring the multiple others on a payroll–gas prices are soaring and more bicycles and people walking every day....Santorum is not a nice Christian to say Mitt doesn't tell the truth--he better fess up to who and what he voted for when he was in the senate-he doesn't dare!
    Romney/Rubio for 2012.....If not Rubio,,,Gov of Va!!! for VP

    March 11, 2012 03:33 pm at 3:33 pm |
  24. vote the Tea Party OUT in 2012

    Rick Santorum/Allen West 2012 a winning ticket if there ever was one.....for the Democrats!

    March 11, 2012 03:51 pm at 3:51 pm |