CNN Poll: Gender gap and likeability keep Obama over Romney
April 16th, 2012
04:00 PM ET
2 years ago

CNN Poll: Gender gap and likeability keep Obama over Romney

(CNN) - President Barack Obama holds a nine-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney thanks in part to the perception that the president is more likeable and more in touch with the problems facing women and middle class Americans, according to a new national poll.

A CNN/ORC International poll released Monday also indicates a large gender gap that benefits Obama, but the public is divided on which candidate can best jump-start the economy.

Full poll (pdf)

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According to the poll, 52% of registered voters say if the presidential election were held today, they would vote for the president, with 43% saying they would cast a ballot for Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who is making his second bid for the White House. The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, a few days after former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania suspended his bid for the GOP nomination. Even though former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas continue their long-shot bids for the nomination, Romney is now generally considered the presumptive nominee.

The survey indicates women voters back Obama over Romney by 16 points (55%-39%), virtually unchanged from an 18-point advantage among women for the president in CNN polling last month.

The poll was conducted two days after Democratic strategist and CNN contributor Hilary Rosen created a controversy by saying that Ann Romney "never worked a day in her life."

"That remark may have little long-term effect on women voters," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "By a two-to-one margin, the women surveyed saw President Obama as more in touch with the problems facing American women today."

Half of those questioned say that Obama is more likely to stand up for what he believes, with only 29% saying that about Romney. Nearly half say that Romney is more likely to change his position on the issues for political reasons, just 39% saying the same thing about the president. Obama has double-digit leads over Romney on likeability, honesty, confidence, values, leadership and almost every other characteristic tested, with one important exception.

"Obama and Romney are essentially tied on who is more likely to get the economy moving again, and that may provide Romney an opening to chip away at Obama's current overall lead," says Holland.

According to the poll, Obama holds a 48%-43% margin over Romney among crucial independent voters. The survey also indicates s generation gap, with all age groups, except those 65 and older, backing Obama. And the poll points to an income divide, with the president holding a 20-point lead over Romney among those earning less than $50,000 per year, while those making more than that figure divided between the two candidates.

Obama's likeability and strong performance on personal characteristics helps explain why three-quarters of his supporters questioned say their vote will be a vote for Obama, not a vote against his opponent. By contrast, more than six in ten Romney supporters say their choice will be mostly be a vote against Obama.

"That's a significantly higher level of anti-incumbent voting than polls found in previous years. In 2004, for example, 55% of Democratic nominee John Kerry's supporters said their choice of Kerry was really a vote against President George W. Bush. The question for 2012 is whether Romney has to provide his supporters with more reasons to vote for him in order to win, or whether a negative anti-Obama message is enough, given that historically high level of anti-incumbent voting," adds Holland.

Two-thirds say they have made up their minds, with just 29% saying they could change their minds between now and November. As for handicapping the election, right now Americans don't think Romney has a good chance of winning the White House. Only 35% said Romney will be victorious in November.

"That is certainly not a prediction of what will happen, of course, but it is worth noting that in the last four presidential elections, the public was able to correctly pick the winner in polls taken in the spring or early summer," adds Holland.

Even though Santorum is out of the race for the White House and Romney is the all but certain nominee, the battle for the GOP nomination technically continues. According to the survey, 57% of Republicans say that Romney is their choice for the GOP nominee, with 19% backing Gingrich and 18% supporting Paul.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International April 13-15, with 1,015 adult Americans, including 910 registered voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

Also see:

Obama re-election team increases fundraising haul

Buffett Rule would barely dent debt but fits nicely into Obama's theme

McCain: I agree with Ann Romney


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (743 Responses)
  1. Just Say No to Flipper

    Rmoney has way more than a gender gap. He has an everything gap. He literally appeals to no one but his fellow predatory capitalists, the GOBP elites. the Mormon Church and whatever low-information voters he and the GOBP can con with fear, lies, hate, ignorance and propaganda. That's it. That;s his entire base. Oh wait, racists, too.

    April 16, 2012 04:05 pm at 4:05 pm |
  2. NYC REPUB

    Obama is a 1%er who is for the 99%......He's a trader to his class! Obama 2012!

    April 16, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  3. Ralf The Dog.

    That sounds like a good start. Lets try for 18%.

    April 16, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  4. matt

    According to a CNN POLL. Those last 2 words are key words, mind you!

    April 16, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  5. d

    Nice to hear people are paying attention...btw the war on women effects all people! men you need to keep that in mind. if you are in a relationship or will be in the future with a woman then it matters now!

    April 16, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  6. BobbaFett

    This is so discouraging. I'm so tired of Obama's policies.

    April 16, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  7. Tickytoo

    HA HA HA ==== roflmao @ cnn

    April 16, 2012 04:08 pm at 4:08 pm |
  8. Scott Gilpatrick

    What a crock. Fuzzy math polling. CNN: Try to be a little more realistic/balanced.

    April 16, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  9. thepowernapper

    Registered voters...not likely voters...and what is the percentage of Republicans versus democrats?

    poll is highly suspect to say the least.

    Mitt Romney will turn around the Obama disaster!

    We need someone with business experience who won't sell us out to Russia.

    April 16, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  10. Bribarian

    looks like the media is picking our president again

    April 16, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  11. slarow

    Curious why they stopped polling Paul vs Obama. Last poll from a few days ago showed Paul ahead of Obama...

    April 16, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  12. Dave

    And now comes the 2012 Mitt Romney $5-billion-dollar-SuperPAC-TV-ad-election campaign.

    April 16, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  13. OGR99

    Mr. Obama with a lead in a CNN poll.

    Go figure.

    April 16, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  14. Bill

    And the gap will only widen as we edge towards November.

    April 16, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  15. oakstave

    I'm an independent, and the outright racism, McCarthyism, and overall hyteria of the GOP has me totally turned off. I'm not the least bit interested in GOP candidates.

    April 16, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  16. slarow

    Curious why they didn't poll Paul vs Obama. The last poll from a few days ago had Paul ahead of Obama... Seems like that would be newsworthy...

    April 16, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  17. bmw

    You apparently didn't ask the right people, because 85% of Americans do not want Obama back in office. He does not represent what we as a nation UNDER GOD believe in.

    April 16, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  18. Guapo

    OMG!!!! NINE POINTS!!!!!!! With over 200 days until the election... we are doooooooomed!!!!!!!!

    April 16, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  19. nolimits3333

    Obama vs Romney

    The 99% vs the 1%.

    April 16, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  20. Jamieska

    This is false

    April 16, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  21. Ralph

    What about Gallup poll today: Mitt Romney is on top....To whom shall I believe

    April 16, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  22. orion7x

    It is alarming how many people have not heard the things said by the GOP in the last 8 months... Unbelievable!. Please wake up before the election or you will doom the USA! These are NOT GOOD people! Also read 1984 by George Orwell if you don't get where they are headed. Not an exaggeration....

    April 16, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  23. Honestly

    There's gonna be a whole lot of angry old white men that are not gonna like this one little bit.

    Bye bye old angry white men. You have only yourselves to blame.

    April 16, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  24. FauxNews

    The Press will have to go far and wide to find a poll that shows Romney anywhere near Obama. Of course, they will since their advertising depends on everyone perceiving it's a close race.

    April 16, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
  25. RealityDoc

    It's April and the election is months away. Every time Obama opens his mouth, he steps in it. The challenge for November is quite simple. If you hate America, feel life has treated you unfairly, believe it's government's responsibility to house you, feed you, clothe you, and give you an income... then vote for Obama. If you love America, went to college, work for a living, pay your bills on time, believe in self-sustenance and small government, then vote for Romney.

    April 16, 2012 04:11 pm at 4:11 pm |
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