Boehner says one-in-three chance GOP could lose the House
April 23rd, 2012
08:07 PM ET
6 years ago

Boehner says one-in-three chance GOP could lose the House

Washington (CNN) - House Speaker John Boehner is sounding some alarm bells, saying "there's a one-in-three chance" Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives in 2012.

Boehner sounded less than confident he would retain his gavel in an interview slated to air Tuesday on Fox News.

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"I would say that there is a two-in-three chance that we win control of the House again but there's a one-in-three chance that we could lose and I'm being myself, frank," Boehner told Fox News, according to a transcript of the interview.

Until now the speaker has not raised any concerns about his party's chances to keep control of the House this fall, and it's unusual for a top party leader to publicly express a pessimistic outlook.

But a spokesman for Boehner's political arm said the speaker was being "candid" and his comments were a deliberate move to remind supporters and potential donors that House Republicans need support this fall.

"We're looking at both sides of the coin," Cory Fritz told CNN. "Of course there is a chance that we could lose and we want to make sure we're doing everything we can so that our members have the resources they need so they can run and win."

Fritz noted there's a perception among some supporters that the "House is kind of lock," but he stressed "it would be mistake for anyone to take that for granted."

Supporters and donors have largely focused on the race for the White House and taking control of the Senate rather than House races. House Democrats would have to pick up 25 seats to retake the majority in the House.

Boehner also told Fox, "we've got a big challenge and we've got work to do."

A senior House GOP leadership aide echoed the need to highlight the importance of the House to the party's agenda for 2012.

"If you're a Republican, no matter what you want to do it's not going to matter if we don't keep the House," the aide said. "We've got to be prepared and people need to realize that."

In the interview, the speaker pointed out there are 32 districts in states where "there is no presidential campaign going to be run, no big Senate race." Specifically Boehner called 18 Congressional districts in California, New York and Illinois "orphan districts," where Romney is not expected to win, and said they are "frankly pretty vulnerable."

Asked about the House GOP candidates in those districts, Fritz said, "The goal is to get others to see that we have a lot of members in these states that need help."

So far Democrats have shown some optimism about the odds of regaining the majority in the House, but have been careful not to sound overconfident.

Asked last week to predict if Democrats could win back the House, their campaign chief, New York Rep. Steve Israel told CNN, "the House is in range."

The number two House Democrat Rep. Steny Hoyer told reporters last month if the economic recovery continued, "our chances are reasonably good that we can take back the House."

Also see:

Giuliani endorses Romney, downplays being running mate

Huntsman compares GOP to Communist Party of China

RNC formally backs Walker in recall

Filed under: 2012 • John Boehner
soundoff (331 Responses)
  1. Severely Moderate

    “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.” – GOP/Tea Party Agenda (2008 – 2012).

    We have not forgotten.

    April 23, 2012 08:12 pm at 8:12 pm |
  2. vote the Tea Party OUT in 2012

    get rid of a lot of those Tea Party folks and maybe we can have a congress that will work together

    April 23, 2012 08:16 pm at 8:16 pm |
  3. AllThatsLeft

    Scott Walker will be the first to fall. Followed by the House and hopefully a gain of enough seats to prevent the Republican's obstructionism use of the filibuster on any and all legislation put before them. RIP GOP!...Thanks Tea Party!

    April 23, 2012 08:20 pm at 8:20 pm |
  4. Squigman

    Your job Mr Boehner, came to you through the efforts of 13% of the population going to the polls. If more eligible voters participate this time, you're toast. Hopefully, this happens, and you'll be long gone, and soon forgotten.

    April 23, 2012 08:21 pm at 8:21 pm |
  5. dnick47

    I'd say it 2 out of 3.... His Party of "NO!" Has stymed a recovery leaving many families wondering "What next?" and on their last leg; and why were the repubs so adamant about styming a recovery: they were and are incensenced that the President of the United States id an Africian American. That, ladies and gentlement, is the sum total of it – just bigotary and prejudice.

    April 23, 2012 08:34 pm at 8:34 pm |
  6. m

    Morre like a 75-80% chance they will not only lose but be swept out dramatically. The country is tired of the party of "NO". We are tired of the gop/teasters trying to take away hard fought civil rights. We are tired of them trying to define what a family should be not on legal grounds but on what some fairytale book says it should be. This is not the 1950's and we refuse to let this country go back to times when it was a W-A-S-P only club.

    April 23, 2012 08:45 pm at 8:45 pm |
  7. Jason D

    The GOP should lose the ability to fillibuster due to the fact they drove america into a recession then tied obamas hands to get it back out, they are the party of the 1% and should get 1% of the vote...the independants would get more then them if this 'fooling all the people some of the time' wears out and the south wises up to their abusers

    April 23, 2012 08:48 pm at 8:48 pm |
  8. David

    I hope he'll lose his house seat in election.

    April 23, 2012 08:49 pm at 8:49 pm |
  9. Janine

    Given they have the lowest approval rating in history, it would certainly be deserved if not expected! I'm certainly hoping they lose. They have done nothing but create roadblocks to progress in this country this past year. Fire them!

    April 23, 2012 08:49 pm at 8:49 pm |
  10. lexgreen

    After the ridiculous record of non-acheivement of the 112th Congress, if the chance is only 1 in 3, then one has to conclude that America's best days are indeed behind her, and her worst days are about to arrive.

    April 23, 2012 08:50 pm at 8:50 pm |
  11. Bob

    AS they should!

    April 23, 2012 08:53 pm at 8:53 pm |
  12. watd

    Ah shucks, something for him to really cry about.

    April 23, 2012 08:53 pm at 8:53 pm |
  13. Anonymous

    "We could lose the House. Not really, but I want to scare you into supporting us."

    April 23, 2012 08:54 pm at 8:54 pm |
  14. B

    As soon as Americans grasp the huge contrast between Obama and Romney it will be over for Romney and the GOP maintaining a majority in the House and Boehner knows it.

    After the first – real debate- it will be over for the Republicans.

    April 23, 2012 09:03 pm at 9:03 pm |
  15. Jerry

    Time to scare the base. Everyone has a chance of losing in the next election.

    April 23, 2012 09:04 pm at 9:04 pm |
  16. Grampa

    With Romney as their standard bearer the GOP could face a disaster in 2012. People are just plain fed up with Republican lies, radicalism, and road blocks.

    April 23, 2012 09:06 pm at 9:06 pm |
  17. Gurgyl

    No one in right mind will vote for GOP. Nation"s nonsense.

    April 23, 2012 09:07 pm at 9:07 pm |
  18. Marie MD

    Aaaaaaawwwwwwwwwww, poor bo ner. Did he cry? His party of he ll no, his words not mine, have done everything possible to keep the little guy down and now he is crying in his soup?
    I guess all that is left for the teapublikans is to rally the troops to come out and vote in November.
    I am sure he went out for drinks tonight in DC?

    April 23, 2012 09:07 pm at 9:07 pm |
  19. mms55

    nice to see he knows whats coming and you can thank tea baggers lol.

    April 23, 2012 09:11 pm at 9:11 pm |
  20. works4me

    More like 50/50 there Boehner. Wake up! I believe you're banking on the selective memory of some Americans. Most Americans will remember, come election time, just who slowed the progress of Americas' recovery. You can't still believe in the "for the Party" theory. It's FOR THE PEOPLE. Remember that!!

    April 23, 2012 09:12 pm at 9:12 pm |
  21. Patrick Lewis

    Wow, I really hope for that one in three shot to come in. It's not so much that they are republicans, it's that they are THESE republicans. Boehner may lead the house, but this house is incapable of legislating and it's because of the fringe right. I'm really shocked that these Tea Party people haven't been voted out via primaries, ESPECIALLY ALLEN WEST!

    April 23, 2012 09:15 pm at 9:15 pm |
  22. lexgreen

    'Boehner also told Fox, "we've got a big challenge and we've got work to do." '

    Oh, I'd say you're a couple of years behind the 8 ball there, Mr. Speaker.

    April 23, 2012 09:16 pm at 9:16 pm |
  23. Lilly of the Valley

    The Republicans are going to have a rude awakening. They have done nothing of any value to help in this bad economy and they want to keep their jobs? I don't think so....

    April 23, 2012 09:16 pm at 9:16 pm |
  24. timothy

    That's if Mitt Romney can keep his mouth shut. If he opens it once a week, the odds are cut to 50/50,

    April 23, 2012 09:16 pm at 9:16 pm |
  25. The Prince of Common Cents

    FINALLY...and honest Republican!

    April 23, 2012 09:20 pm at 9:20 pm |
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