Boehner says one-in-three chance GOP could lose the House
April 23rd, 2012
08:07 PM ET
2 years ago

Boehner says one-in-three chance GOP could lose the House

Washington (CNN) - House Speaker John Boehner is sounding some alarm bells, saying "there's a one-in-three chance" Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives in 2012.

Boehner sounded less than confident he would retain his gavel in an interview slated to air Tuesday on Fox News.

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"I would say that there is a two-in-three chance that we win control of the House again but there's a one-in-three chance that we could lose and I'm being myself, frank," Boehner told Fox News, according to a transcript of the interview.

Until now the speaker has not raised any concerns about his party's chances to keep control of the House this fall, and it's unusual for a top party leader to publicly express a pessimistic outlook.

But a spokesman for Boehner's political arm said the speaker was being "candid" and his comments were a deliberate move to remind supporters and potential donors that House Republicans need support this fall.

"We're looking at both sides of the coin," Cory Fritz told CNN. "Of course there is a chance that we could lose and we want to make sure we're doing everything we can so that our members have the resources they need so they can run and win."

Fritz noted there's a perception among some supporters that the "House is kind of lock," but he stressed "it would be mistake for anyone to take that for granted."

Supporters and donors have largely focused on the race for the White House and taking control of the Senate rather than House races. House Democrats would have to pick up 25 seats to retake the majority in the House.

Boehner also told Fox, "we've got a big challenge and we've got work to do."

A senior House GOP leadership aide echoed the need to highlight the importance of the House to the party's agenda for 2012.

"If you're a Republican, no matter what you want to do it's not going to matter if we don't keep the House," the aide said. "We've got to be prepared and people need to realize that."

In the interview, the speaker pointed out there are 32 districts in states where "there is no presidential campaign going to be run, no big Senate race." Specifically Boehner called 18 Congressional districts in California, New York and Illinois "orphan districts," where Romney is not expected to win, and said they are "frankly pretty vulnerable."

Asked about the House GOP candidates in those districts, Fritz said, "The goal is to get others to see that we have a lot of members in these states that need help."

So far Democrats have shown some optimism about the odds of regaining the majority in the House, but have been careful not to sound overconfident.

Asked last week to predict if Democrats could win back the House, their campaign chief, New York Rep. Steve Israel told CNN, "the House is in range."

The number two House Democrat Rep. Steny Hoyer told reporters last month if the economic recovery continued, "our chances are reasonably good that we can take back the House."

Also see:

Giuliani endorses Romney, downplays being running mate

Huntsman compares GOP to Communist Party of China

RNC formally backs Walker in recall


Filed under: 2012 • John Boehner
soundoff (331 Responses)
  1. Nad

    "Washington (CNN) – House Speaker John Boehner is sounding some alarm bells, saying "there's a one-in-three chance" Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives in 2012."

    They better do

    April 24, 2012 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
  2. Lynda/Minnesota

    @Woman In California

    WE MUST VOTE. We must give rides to our neighbors, friends and co-workers IF necessary. Please get out and vote and give the President some help.
    -----–

    Count me in ... !

    April 24, 2012 12:58 pm at 12:58 pm |
  3. Elliott

    I know there are Tea Party folks out there saying that Government is terrible and yes, there are parts of Government that can be cleaned up. But, the "Taxed Enough Already" crowd may not like getting taxed more by their TP and Republican politicians to pay for the proposed tax breaks for the wealthy.... Just saying...

    April 24, 2012 01:02 pm at 1:02 pm |
  4. Dominican mama 4 Obama (the real one)

    SidAirfoil

    Seriously SidAirfoil, based on what we have collectively experienced under their megalomaniac hands for the past 3 1/2 years I'm not about to find out! I wouldn't take a chance on a GOP about face from the stance they've taken for almost three years if you paid me to. That is just too much of a freaking risk. These people have acted like gleeful sadists. I wouldn't entrust someone else's country to their care to find out if they change their tune, much less MINE!
    Forget that crap, Jack!
    Obama 2012. Period.

    April 24, 2012 01:03 pm at 1:03 pm |
  5. Dominican mama 4 Obama (the real one)

    Woman in California: Ditto!

    April 24, 2012 01:05 pm at 1:05 pm |
  6. Brian Dodge

    Boehner's afraid that having nominated the great white nope, that the Republican tea party/fundamentalist wing (their base) will stay home – and Republicans across the board will lose votes, maybe enough to lose close races. One difference between Democrats and Republicans is that Dems by and large will hold their nose and vote for a Democrat they don't strongly support – liberal Dems voted(and campaigned) for Obama, even though he is a moderate with strong ties to business and energy companies(Illinois is a major coal state). Republican voters tend to be ideological hot button purists – if the nominee doesn't support their particular issue – antiabortion, anti gay marriage, anti global warming, anti- evolution, anti-whatever – they are significantly less likely to vote. Which is why Bush was anti-abortion during the campaign, but did nothing after the election; and why Romney is flipflopping from Romneycare to "severely conservative" – and will probably be a moderate Republican president if elected. This type of thing creates a feeling of betrayal in the Republican base(they hate that Bush cut taxes but increased spending and unbalanced the balanced budget he inherited from Clinton), and give wingnuts like Palin and Santorum support. Unfortunately(to me, as a liberal Dem), the wingnuts never get nominated – Palin was unknown, poorly vetted, and a maverick selection, and a gift to Obama's campaign.

    April 24, 2012 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  7. Lynda/Minnesota

    @Dominican mama 4 Obama (the real one)

    What is really frustrating is GOP lack of accountability. They've spent the past 3 years insulting every American demographic known, and now want all of us to forget it all ... you know, let bygone's be bygone's ... without even accepting that they too help create the whole freaking mess to begin with, let alone that they chose to sit on the sidelines cheering one bad economic indicator after another. Mitt Romney is the worst of the lot, smirking under his "Obama isn't working" banner - trying to whitewash his indifference and disdain with lies and etch a sketch stupidity.

    April 24, 2012 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |
  8. Dominican mama 4 Obama (the real one)

    Does anyone believe that Republican's are that stupid?
    -------------------------------------------------
    Yes.
    Oh, wait, was that a rhetorical question?

    April 24, 2012 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
  9. IISIIAIIMII

    You figure republicans would have realized this when the facts came out that they have the lowest approval rating ever!!! Even after that fact they still didn't do anything to change the facts but instead continued to veer to the right and eventually off the road.

    April 24, 2012 01:17 pm at 1:17 pm |
  10. Fionn

    Every single congressman who signed the norquist pledge deserves to lose their seat. How dare they get elected by the people then when they get to a position of power sign their allefiance to a loobbyist group andnot commit to doing what is best for the people who voted for them. I am sure if it was contested that pledge is unconstitutional for an elected official.

    April 24, 2012 01:18 pm at 1:18 pm |
  11. Stopthemadness

    They will lose a lot of seat this go round regardless of whether any republicans reading this agrees or not it is going to happen. COUNT ON IT. America is waking up,,,,,,, Finally.

    April 24, 2012 01:18 pm at 1:18 pm |
  12. Gurgyl

    Count me too to do all I can to Obama re-elected. That day I am taking off to campaign for obbie. Please vote for obama if you care for USA.

    April 24, 2012 01:22 pm at 1:22 pm |
  13. IISIIAIIMII

    Republican talking points; talking point #1 Blame OBAMA, talking point #2: Lame OBAMA, talking point #3 Ame OBAMA, talking point #4 Me OBAMA, talking point #5 E OBAMA and taking point #6 OBAMA. See everything starts and ends with OBAMA, now that was an easy strategy. =)

    April 24, 2012 01:23 pm at 1:23 pm |
  14. Little Jimmy Truth

    If Obama will win then OWS will win too. OWS will continue to destroy American Economic.

    April 24, 2012 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  15. rosaadriana

    ONe in three? Is that all? I thought it would be 50-50 by now. The more we know the more likely they will GO.

    April 24, 2012 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  16. docame

    BINGO!!!!!!!!

    "Anyway, the challenges currently faced by the US are a direct result of failed Republican economic, military and foreign policies.

    The Democrats have been cleaning up the mess – and succeeding, in spite of all the efforts to obstruct on the part of the Repubs.

    Here's the real choice: If you want to return to failed policies (trickle-down economics, tax cuts for the rich, going to war on lies, etc.), vote Republican.

    If you want to continue moving forward with the economic recovery, investing in OUR country (education, basic scientific research, true energy independence, and infrastructure), vote for the Democratic Party."

    Obama/Biden 2012

    April 24, 2012 01:29 pm at 1:29 pm |
  17. Rudy NYC

    I hereby do declare that the US Capitol Building should be made a "Tea Free Zone." No tea partying within 500 foot-miles of the building. Violaters shall be waterboarded in order to discover just who they really work for. Because it sure ain't the best interests of their constituents.

    April 24, 2012 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |
  18. zapper45701

    As usual, Boehner is out of touch. I'm not sure when his term is up, but in Ohio, he will be OUT. This is my state, and the reason he spends so much time in Washington is because he hopes the tar and feathers here will cool down and blow away. Sorry, but we are all pitching in to make sure he has a "warm" welcome.

    April 24, 2012 01:33 pm at 1:33 pm |
  19. bill in fl

    GOOD BYE boehner and the party of no
    if you do nothing you lose your job

    April 24, 2012 01:34 pm at 1:34 pm |
  20. docame

    "" Lynda/Minnesota

    @Woman In California

    WE MUST VOTE. We must give rides to our neighbors, friends and co-workers IF necessary. Please get out and vote and give the President some help.
    -––

    Count me in ... ! ""

    Me too!

    The Repubs are goin' down!!!

    OBAMA 2012!

    April 24, 2012 01:36 pm at 1:36 pm |
  21. docame

    The GOP is well known as the party of the old fart . Old farts eventually go away with the slightest breeze. Bye bye repubs...by by!

    April 24, 2012 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  22. Duane - St. Pete FLA

    lets get a REAL man in the white house....not some angry black guy......

    April 24, 2012 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  23. Lynda/Minnesota

    @Brian Dodge who stated: Which is why Bush was anti-abortion during the campaign, but did nothing after the election; and why Romney is flipflopping from Romneycare to "severely conservative" – and will probably be a moderate Republican president if elected.

    Does anyone in America really know how Mitt Romney the moderate / Mitt Romney the conservative will govern if elected? I know I'm not willing to take a chance on "opening up the present full of Mitt Romney suprises" until after the election.

    Obama/Biden

    April 24, 2012 01:48 pm at 1:48 pm |
  24. Ann

    John Boehner is going to be a one term Speaker of the House.

    April 24, 2012 01:49 pm at 1:49 pm |
  25. Whatever

    When he has to hand the gavel back over, I hope they make him use that overcompensating theater prop of a sledge hammer he used when he took the speakership.

    April 24, 2012 01:50 pm at 1:50 pm |
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