Boehner says one-in-three chance GOP could lose the House
April 23rd, 2012
08:07 PM ET
6 years ago

Boehner says one-in-three chance GOP could lose the House

Washington (CNN) - House Speaker John Boehner is sounding some alarm bells, saying "there's a one-in-three chance" Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives in 2012.

Boehner sounded less than confident he would retain his gavel in an interview slated to air Tuesday on Fox News.

- Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

"I would say that there is a two-in-three chance that we win control of the House again but there's a one-in-three chance that we could lose and I'm being myself, frank," Boehner told Fox News, according to a transcript of the interview.

Until now the speaker has not raised any concerns about his party's chances to keep control of the House this fall, and it's unusual for a top party leader to publicly express a pessimistic outlook.

But a spokesman for Boehner's political arm said the speaker was being "candid" and his comments were a deliberate move to remind supporters and potential donors that House Republicans need support this fall.

"We're looking at both sides of the coin," Cory Fritz told CNN. "Of course there is a chance that we could lose and we want to make sure we're doing everything we can so that our members have the resources they need so they can run and win."

Fritz noted there's a perception among some supporters that the "House is kind of lock," but he stressed "it would be mistake for anyone to take that for granted."

Supporters and donors have largely focused on the race for the White House and taking control of the Senate rather than House races. House Democrats would have to pick up 25 seats to retake the majority in the House.

Boehner also told Fox, "we've got a big challenge and we've got work to do."

A senior House GOP leadership aide echoed the need to highlight the importance of the House to the party's agenda for 2012.

"If you're a Republican, no matter what you want to do it's not going to matter if we don't keep the House," the aide said. "We've got to be prepared and people need to realize that."

In the interview, the speaker pointed out there are 32 districts in states where "there is no presidential campaign going to be run, no big Senate race." Specifically Boehner called 18 Congressional districts in California, New York and Illinois "orphan districts," where Romney is not expected to win, and said they are "frankly pretty vulnerable."

Asked about the House GOP candidates in those districts, Fritz said, "The goal is to get others to see that we have a lot of members in these states that need help."

So far Democrats have shown some optimism about the odds of regaining the majority in the House, but have been careful not to sound overconfident.

Asked last week to predict if Democrats could win back the House, their campaign chief, New York Rep. Steve Israel told CNN, "the House is in range."

The number two House Democrat Rep. Steny Hoyer told reporters last month if the economic recovery continued, "our chances are reasonably good that we can take back the House."

Also see:

Giuliani endorses Romney, downplays being running mate

Huntsman compares GOP to Communist Party of China

RNC formally backs Walker in recall

Filed under: 2012 • John Boehner
soundoff (331 Responses)
  1. cincinnati voter

    Let's hope that they do go! I live in Boehner's state and I think people are starting to wake up here.
    I really hope all the dems get out and vote. We need them==so much is at stake. The more a voter
    knows about the repubs plan the more a voter will have to end up voting them out. Just common sense
    and decency is all you need for that decision.

    April 24, 2012 01:52 pm at 1:52 pm |
  2. jj

    Never cared much for the guy, but realistically....he didn't get to be speaker without knowing which way the wind blows.

    April 24, 2012 01:54 pm at 1:54 pm |
  3. 4 More Years!!!

    I'll personally drag all those republican bums as far from the capitol as possible. They're never coming back!!!

    April 24, 2012 01:54 pm at 1:54 pm |
  4. Dominican mama 4 Obama (the real one)

    @ Lynda/Minnesota:

    (I don't know what the hell happened to my response to you, but anyway...)
    We have a word in spanish that fits the behaviour that the GOP is quite adept at displaying, it is SINVERGUENZA. Literally translated it means: without shame.
    These types of sinverguenzas will look you squarely in the eye and lie to you, and deny all blame and responsibility. Without blinking, without compunction.

    April 24, 2012 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  5. Independent Voters

    Bye Bye Boehner we will make sure the teaparty and rest of the republicans are voted out.
    Boehner you let the teaparty destroy the republican party.

    April 24, 2012 02:03 pm at 2:03 pm |
  6. snoozie

    He's just being coy.

    April 24, 2012 02:09 pm at 2:09 pm |
  7. Ol' Yeller

    Why in the world would we want to turn the House over to the Dems?!? I mean, the republicans ran on jobs and the economy and they have worked so well with the President in ensuring that the country's problems were first and foremost out front.
    Oh yeah, they didn't.

    April 24, 2012 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  8. nibiru

    nov 2012 renaissance of USA,no more Dems in charge for the next 20 years

    April 24, 2012 02:12 pm at 2:12 pm |
  9. GOP ESP

    Is this really a surprise? The GOP has been sitting around with their thumb up their butt this term. It will not be any surprise when the other shoe drops.

    April 24, 2012 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |
  10. julie

    @Duane ST Pete..................................U wouldn't know a real man if he kicked your sorry azz................a real man is in the WH........................willard is as FAKE as they come...........too bad Duane 4 more years

    Obama 2012 the ONLY way FORWARD

    April 24, 2012 02:14 pm at 2:14 pm |
  11. LikeHorseMeatBetter

    I thought Fox News lie.

    April 24, 2012 02:15 pm at 2:15 pm |
  12. LikeHorseMeatBetter

    Wow the Obama lap dog press secretaries are out in full force today! Too bad u r all the product of public education where u all obviously failed math. 1 in 3 mean 66%chance he will keep his gavel. LOL!!! what idiots here!

    April 24, 2012 02:19 pm at 2:19 pm |
  13. Jude



    Every major indicator of the economy from jobs, to deficits, and to out of control spending has gotten worse under Obama. Democrats want to live on the government dole but we can't afford it. Independents will see through all the chatter and the GOP will retain the House by a nose and take the Senate. I feel confident that after most American voters have just lived through Pelosi and Reid era they know if ANYTHING that is not the answer unless we want to be Greece.

    Did you just wake up from a Faux induced coma...please tell us where you are getting your indicators
    Unemployment is higher, the deficit is higher and spending is much higher or are you ignorant of facts.

    April 24, 2012 02:23 pm at 2:23 pm |
  14. Tex71

    I should think the chances are a lot better than one in three. Any American who would vote Republican at this point is either a religious extremist or a Wall Street suit.

    April 24, 2012 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  15. Molly

    Sinverguenza – oh my, do hope I can remember.........
    I expected them to go along with the tax inc. for the rich........because the voters would remember that when they go to the polls.......they are dumber than I thought. many speculate than the tax for rich would be such an insignificant amount but
    every little bit adds up in the long run.
    Anyway – hooray for dom. mama!

    April 24, 2012 02:27 pm at 2:27 pm |
  16. Lynda/Minnestoa

    Dominican mama 4 Obama (the real one)
    Literally translated it means: without shame.

    Absolutely the truth!

    April 24, 2012 02:30 pm at 2:30 pm |
  17. Pete

    See Boehner talking to FOX again!!He wouldn't talk so convidently if he were on another channel,like CNN.He knows theres a snowballs chance in hades that those rightwing extremists are still in the House and Senate after November,no cryin will change that fact.Why would anyone reelect a no doing House and Senate that ran on a jobs promise to help the many,when all they did was obstruction to any plans to help the poor and middle class citizens that voted for all of them in'10.It's time to make Boehner cry and send him to the gallows for his parties treasonist agenda,one that's stalled the plans of our Pres.Obamas, to help the people he represents go forward.Send all the republicans along to sit with him,they deserve it....

    April 24, 2012 02:30 pm at 2:30 pm |
  18. LikeHorseMeatBetter

    Ignorance is bliss isn't it Obamabots/lapdogs?
    CBO, Census, Nat.l Labor Stats have all reported the fact that unemployment is higher since Obama took office, more people are on govt assistance esp. minorites since the One was crowned. Gas prices are higher, the deficit is higher, housing market continues to fall and no end in sight. The only people that are making out are the greedy WallStreet bankers. Now ask urself this question. Didn't Obama passed a financial regulation Bill to "crack down" on the greedy Wall Street guys? Who did these fat cats gave most of their campaign contributions to in 2008? (hint: not McCain). Payback is so sweet for the contributors of Obama now isn't it? Like the CHANGE you got? Now he is about to deliver on the NO HOPE part of it.

    April 24, 2012 02:34 pm at 2:34 pm |
  19. vbscript2

    The Democrats winning back the House... that's a scary proposition. We don't need any more periods like '09/'10. Quadrupling the deficit again? No thanks.

    April 24, 2012 02:36 pm at 2:36 pm |
  20. there is profit in fear.....aka payback

    ...tea-baggers and republicans......Guess what? PACK-YOUR-BAGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    April 24, 2012 02:44 pm at 2:44 pm |
  21. Mlight

    A shame that our Speaker gave this negative comment. If you make a comment, people tend to start BELIEVING the idea. After all, Obama's spin team are brilliant at providing almost truth fodder for the masses.

    April 24, 2012 02:51 pm at 2:51 pm |
  22. Jim in PA

    Just trying to set expectations low and get a little fund raising panic going. Both sides play these games.

    April 24, 2012 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  23. grandoo

    I'm all for the republicans losing the house this November as long as that witch Pelosi doesn't become speaker again. Pelosi excluded the republicans from all discussion during her tenure and in doing so she contributed most to creation of the toxic environment and ensuing deadlock in the house!

    April 24, 2012 02:52 pm at 2:52 pm |
  24. The Real Tom Paine

    -LikeHorseMeatBetter, interesting how you argue that ignorance is bliss. Your statements reveal the alternate reality and ignrance the Right lives in. Unemployment is down, much to your annoyance, I'm sure, as well as the fact that Obama's annual deficeits are about 300 billion per year lower than Bush. Is everything wonderful? Nope, but its a damn sight better than it was when he took office. The banks and Wall Street have been doing everything they can to ensure they go back to the Happy Time they enjoyed under Bush when regs were a joke and enforcement was non-existent. Frankly, I think you hate the fact your heros are being held accountable.

    April 24, 2012 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  25. Jim in PA

    So if the Dems win back the House and the Supreme Court knocks down Health Care Reform, will we finally get single payer? Or will Obama still try to do the bidding of the insurance companies?

    April 24, 2012 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14