Boehner says one-in-three chance GOP could lose the House
April 23rd, 2012
08:07 PM ET
3 years ago

Boehner says one-in-three chance GOP could lose the House

Washington (CNN) - House Speaker John Boehner is sounding some alarm bells, saying "there's a one-in-three chance" Republicans could lose control of the House of Representatives in 2012.

Boehner sounded less than confident he would retain his gavel in an interview slated to air Tuesday on Fox News.

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"I would say that there is a two-in-three chance that we win control of the House again but there's a one-in-three chance that we could lose and I'm being myself, frank," Boehner told Fox News, according to a transcript of the interview.

Until now the speaker has not raised any concerns about his party's chances to keep control of the House this fall, and it's unusual for a top party leader to publicly express a pessimistic outlook.

But a spokesman for Boehner's political arm said the speaker was being "candid" and his comments were a deliberate move to remind supporters and potential donors that House Republicans need support this fall.

"We're looking at both sides of the coin," Cory Fritz told CNN. "Of course there is a chance that we could lose and we want to make sure we're doing everything we can so that our members have the resources they need so they can run and win."

Fritz noted there's a perception among some supporters that the "House is kind of lock," but he stressed "it would be mistake for anyone to take that for granted."

Supporters and donors have largely focused on the race for the White House and taking control of the Senate rather than House races. House Democrats would have to pick up 25 seats to retake the majority in the House.

Boehner also told Fox, "we've got a big challenge and we've got work to do."

A senior House GOP leadership aide echoed the need to highlight the importance of the House to the party's agenda for 2012.

"If you're a Republican, no matter what you want to do it's not going to matter if we don't keep the House," the aide said. "We've got to be prepared and people need to realize that."

In the interview, the speaker pointed out there are 32 districts in states where "there is no presidential campaign going to be run, no big Senate race." Specifically Boehner called 18 Congressional districts in California, New York and Illinois "orphan districts," where Romney is not expected to win, and said they are "frankly pretty vulnerable."

Asked about the House GOP candidates in those districts, Fritz said, "The goal is to get others to see that we have a lot of members in these states that need help."

So far Democrats have shown some optimism about the odds of regaining the majority in the House, but have been careful not to sound overconfident.

Asked last week to predict if Democrats could win back the House, their campaign chief, New York Rep. Steve Israel told CNN, "the House is in range."

The number two House Democrat Rep. Steny Hoyer told reporters last month if the economic recovery continued, "our chances are reasonably good that we can take back the House."

Also see:

Giuliani endorses Romney, downplays being running mate

Huntsman compares GOP to Communist Party of China

RNC formally backs Walker in recall


Filed under: 2012 • John Boehner
soundoff (331 Responses)
  1. james s.

    Texas is predicted to gain 4 Democratic seats. One in South Texas were a Republican won in 2010 and they believe he has no chance in 2012. There are 3 new seats all expected to be Democratic seats. 18+4.

    April 23, 2012 09:21 pm at 9:21 pm |
  2. Joyce

    Romey has been very ineffective, no control, no support from the tea partiers

    April 23, 2012 09:22 pm at 9:22 pm |
  3. David

    I'm so sick of the repubs spewing their hate. I've never seen a president so hated by a very loud and obnoxious minority. If you don't agree with his policies, fine. No prob. But when you reach for stuff to complain about and it's just such a gross leap of the imagination you lose your credibility and come up looking like a fool. Some uneducated loud mouths have spread their hate from day one. The whole birth certificate issue is a great example. People where here spreading rumor as if it were fact. As if any of you KNEW he wasn't born in America. Provide facts. None of you knew anything. You were just spreading fear and hate.

    Now for one final point. Today I received my new voter ID card. For the first time in 30 years I am a registered independent. I finally couldn't ignore the obvious fact that the Republican Party has horribly, horribly change and is not even recognizable from what it used to be.

    April 23, 2012 09:23 pm at 9:23 pm |
  4. Independent

    I'd say its more like a 2 out of 3 that you will lose the house, Boehner. Keep putting idiots on the ballet and then just hand over the keys to the demotards. Congress is awful.

    April 23, 2012 09:26 pm at 9:26 pm |
  5. rasjr1957

    the way the republicans continue to be so fiscally irresponsible I hope the odds are greater than that. Any party that believes in a tax law that's continues to cut taxes for the wealthiest and doing nothing to payoff the debt and brings jobs home from china must go.

    April 23, 2012 09:31 pm at 9:31 pm |
  6. normajean @ verizon ,com

    If the womens vote will do it.......count it DONE!!!. The Repubs are working hard at taking away health care from women that we worked hard to receive and retain. They don't care if the elderly and ill have heallth problems they are talking about vouchers instead of our regular medical plans. How can we older people go out into the market and find a medical plan at this point in our lives?? Talk about "pre existing conditions." The Repuibs are also back on their abortion plans. ....For some reason they don't care about the job market or the economy...they just are aiming their plans at the infirm and elderly,and mostly women.!!!. BE AWARE..... WE WLL NOT BE VOTING FOR THE REPUB. CANDIDATE!!!

    April 23, 2012 09:32 pm at 9:32 pm |
  7. Conrack

    Better take another look in your crystal ball, Mr. Speaker. Voters are well aware of the fact that the GOP decided to use every effort to make the Presiident fail rather than move the country forward. The chances are closer to at least 2 in 3 .

    April 23, 2012 09:36 pm at 9:36 pm |
  8. B

    The House has been a hot mess since 2010, and it is time to clean it up by voting te GOP out in November.

    April 23, 2012 09:40 pm at 9:40 pm |
  9. Rick

    Let's call it 80% chance Boehner that Republicans will lose control of the House and hopefully you one of them. You cannot be in the House for 4 years, doing nothing, on vacation 60% of the time. No work done for the people or the nation. You are in control and you control what wil happen in November with Republicans. Wake UP Boehner and McConnell, 2 old senile men that are worthless to us.

    April 23, 2012 09:40 pm at 9:40 pm |
  10. Norma Vessels

    The Democrats might as well regain the House of Representatives .. the Republican majority right now has done absolutely nothing with it .. the Democrats need it to get something done, without a road block every time, from the Republicans.

    April 23, 2012 09:40 pm at 9:40 pm |
  11. facingdemons

    The party of "NO" is going to be forced to face their actions. Their "no's" have lead us NOwhere. And now, that elections are coming around again .... the ones who voted NO in the GOP party just to save face in front of their peers, are probably now regretting their actions.

    Many congressmen / women were sold down the river to get a "no" vote passed on the GOP side for EVERYTHING!!! And now that it's nearing election time, they are wondering if they've just been sold out by the higher ups in the GOP. And my reply is a resounding, "YES!!"

    April 23, 2012 09:42 pm at 9:42 pm |
  12. daehttub

    It's called FUNDRAISING folks. Just trying to scare up some dollars for the GOP. Nothing of significance here.

    April 23, 2012 09:42 pm at 9:42 pm |
  13. jennifer in Houston

    What a surprise.. the Party of No is getting nervous.. woohoo bring it on. The tea Party has turned out to be a millstone around their necks..

    April 23, 2012 09:46 pm at 9:46 pm |
  14. facingdemons

    Some day the GOP will realize that money can't buy EVERYTHING. They rely on this so much they don't know how to relate to PEOPLE.

    April 23, 2012 09:47 pm at 9:47 pm |
  15. Charlie from the North

    Well until you GOPers smarten up and dump the Tea Party you certainly don't deserve the power you have. It will depend on voter turnout though so if y'all can suppress the vote enough you have a chance.

    April 23, 2012 10:02 pm at 10:02 pm |
  16. nolimits3333

    More like 2 in 3....

    April 23, 2012 10:02 pm at 10:02 pm |
  17. LindaPP

    I agree!!!!!!!

    April 23, 2012 10:07 pm at 10:07 pm |
  18. PTBarnumboy

    The first liar doesn't stand a chance.

    April 23, 2012 10:13 pm at 10:13 pm |
  19. Anonymous

    Hey, Deidre, you need to review your math notes. Two Thirds chance of keeping control is not pessimistic.

    April 23, 2012 10:15 pm at 10:15 pm |
  20. s.s

    Instead of one in three, lets make it one in one and simplyfy it further call "definitely"

    April 23, 2012 10:18 pm at 10:18 pm |
  21. Joe from Ohio

    I'd say its 2 in 3 that the "party of NO progress" gets sent packing. Americans are waking up.

    April 23, 2012 10:20 pm at 10:20 pm |
  22. Tyler Durden

    In the same way the Democrats took back control after Americans were frustrated when the misinformation campaign justifying the Iraq war came to light. Democrats take back control again, this time in reaction to Tea Party extremism and Republican intransigance.

    April 23, 2012 10:20 pm at 10:20 pm |
  23. John

    Wow, all of a sudden I believe in a higher power for the first time :)

    April 23, 2012 10:20 pm at 10:20 pm |
  24. Keith A. Sillsbury

    there is no chance repubs will retain any seats with their record of being against Americans and the American way of life.

    April 23, 2012 10:28 pm at 10:28 pm |
  25. kjswartz

    If the Republicans lose the house, or do not gain the Senate and the Presidency, it would because the fear they foisted against measured fixes to our society will reap such a response as to make the current panel of Republicans pariahs for all time! To toss well meaning people out of the party, Jon Huntsman, Olympia Snowe, just because they inconvenienced the ruling class is why I turned away from voting Republican. John McCain was the tea party before it got ruined by those with dark motives. Deliver a candidate whom I can trust to balance the three aspects of our lives – private, corporate, and government – and only then will I return to the fold. But I do not suffer fools.

    April 23, 2012 10:30 pm at 10:30 pm |
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