Poll: Dead heat in Arizona
April 25th, 2012
02:34 PM ET
3 years ago

Poll: Dead heat in Arizona

(CNN) – Is Arizona truly a battleground state?

The jury's still out, but a second straight survey this week does indicate that it's all knotted up between President Barack Obama and presumptive Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in Arizona.

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According to a Rocky Mountain Poll released Wednesday, 42% of registered voters in Arizona say they support Obama, with 40% backing Romney and a high 18% undecided. The president's two percent margin is well within the survey's sampling error, meaning it's basically a dead heat in Arizona.

A poll released Monday from Arizona State University's Merrill/Morrison Institute indicated 42%-40% margin for Romney among registered voters in Arizona, again a dead heat.

The two point margin for Obama in the new Rocky Mountain poll is a switch from January, when Romney held a six point advantage over Obama.

According to the new poll, Obama holds a 16 point advantage over independent voters and a 39 point lead among Hispanic voters.

Bill Clinton's 1996 win in Arizona was the last time the Democrats carried the state in a presidential election. Sen. John McCain won his home state by 8 points over Obama in 2008.

But with McCain not on the ballot this time around, and with the state's Hispanic population continuing to grow, Democrats think they can put Arizona in play this November.

"We think we have a real shot at winning the presidential race here in Arizona," said Vice President Joe Biden, campaigning in the state last week.

Biden added the Obama re-election campaign was actively working to generate support in the state.

But Republicans disagree. Last week Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, on a conference call with reporters, said the idea of Arizona turning blue was a "mirage."

The Rocky Mountain Poll was conducted by Behavior Research Center from April 9-17, with 511 registered voters in Arizona questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

CNN's Kevin Liptak contributed to this report


Filed under: 2012 • Arizona
soundoff (37 Responses)
  1. Kris Craig

    Are the poll numbers a "mirage" too, then?

    I say Reince Priebus is a mirage. I mean, come on. Even the name sounds made-up!

    April 25, 2012 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
  2. Baye

    Im happy to see more comments from Arizona residents displaying enlighten opinions showing logical evaluation of the state of this countries real problems and where we need to go in this country to get back on tract. We have real problems and need a President and a Congress that cares about this country and not Zelot Idealogs in Congress nor a Preident who only cares about the rich and business , who's interest are not aligned with those of every day working Americans. We Need policies that prepare us for the world we are in, energy policies good middle and upper middle class jobs that can not be outsourced. We need infrastructure repairs and upgrades to road and grids etc. I don't see Republicans addressing these issues now or in the future-all of this creat jobs. We need to also be very mindful that the next President wiil most likely appoint the next one or two Supreme Court Justics, so unless you want to See this court have a solid right voting block that is one of the many imperative reasons for Arizona to go BLUE!

    April 25, 2012 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
  3. Rudy NYC

    Myviewis wrote:

    @rs-did you not watch TV reports of groups fighting in states like Arizona making sure people do not get asked for ID when voting so that illegals can vote?
    ------------------
    Nope. That was a Hannity exclusive. He's not releasing tapes to other networks.

    April 25, 2012 03:35 pm at 3:35 pm |
  4. Kris Craig

    @Myviewis Wow, if you spin any faster we can use you to harvest protons....

    People are fighting the "voter ID" laws not because they want "illegals," as you call them, to vote. They're fighting these laws because they prevent LEGAL CITIZENS from voting! How? Well, consider that many underprivileged voters don't have drivers' licenses because they don't have a car. And many of these people live in communities where there isn't a licensing office nearby. Poor voters overwhelmingly tend to vote Democratic; disenfranchising them with these laws gives Republicans a huge advantage, and THAT is what these laws are really all about. They're just using "illegals" as a scapegoat.

    April 25, 2012 03:36 pm at 3:36 pm |
  5. mdturn1

    Who are they asking in the poll? all republicans? Anyone with an 8th Grade education will tell you that you can't read anything from statistical poll numbers.. VERY FAULTY LOGIC AT PLAY

    April 25, 2012 03:43 pm at 3:43 pm |
  6. Dan L

    A registered voters poll is worthless. Just used by a campaign or their supporters to get some cheap press.

    April 25, 2012 03:46 pm at 3:46 pm |
  7. Wire Palladin, S. F.

    Wasn't Bernie Maddoff an investment advisor?

    April 25, 2012 03:48 pm at 3:48 pm |
  8. Travis T

    Nobody supports Obama in Arizona, seems like that's a wish state for Democrats who favors a borderless land and socialist country. Arizona is against Obama because Obama is the one who doesn't want Arizona to enforce their borders. I mean just look at Fast and Furious scandal, Obama has still not comment about the scandal which he had appointed his friend Eric Holder.

    April 25, 2012 03:50 pm at 3:50 pm |
  9. Rudy NYC

    mdturn1 asked:

    Who are they asking in the poll? all republicans?
    -------------------
    "According to the new poll, Obama holds a 16 point advantage over independent voters and a 39 point lead among Hispanic voters."

    This article appears to have been edited since its' first posting. If I not mistaking this article for another one, there was a statistical breakdown of registered Arizona voters by party affiliation. The numbers were roughly as follows: 30% Democatic, 30% Repubican, 40% Indepenent. The line I quoted above seems to have taken its' place.

    April 25, 2012 03:55 pm at 3:55 pm |
  10. Rudy NYC

    jo an

    It may take years for the world to give credit to Obama....Did you watch PBS last night...Obama had major role in keeping this country and the world from going down the RABBIT HOLE......
    ---------------------
    The world has already recognized Obama's contribution to the world. Can you say Nobel Peace Prize?

    April 25, 2012 03:58 pm at 3:58 pm |
  11. Tony

    Myviews,
    To echo rs, illegal immigrants can't vote. If Arizona enforces its own election laws, ballots cast by people who are ineligible will be discarded. I know, you don't care about the details. You prefer to live in your own reality. But a lot of U.S. citizens who are of Mexican descent are upset. They don't want to be treated like illegal immigrants in their own country (the same one you are in).

    April 25, 2012 04:01 pm at 4:01 pm |
  12. David

    Voting for Obama is a mistake – he has made things much worse. Go Romney!

    April 25, 2012 04:03 pm at 4:03 pm |
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