Poll: Obama, Romney statistically tied nationwide
May 7th, 2012
08:13 AM ET
6 years ago

Poll: Obama, Romney statistically tied nationwide

(CNN) – A new poll released Monday indicates President Barack Obama and presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney are in a dead heat, six months ahead of the November 6 election.

The survey shows Romney with a one-percentage point advantage, 48%-47%, over the president among likely voters, well within the Politico/George Washington University poll's sampling error.

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Also in the poll, Romney has a 10-point margin over the president among independents, a crucial voting block, with 48% supporting the former Massachusetts governor, while 38% back Obama. Of those who say they are "extremely likely" to vote, Romney is ahead by six percentage points, the poll shows.

The survey was conducted April 29 through May 3, a period in the campaign marked by bitter political fights surrounding the one-year anniversary of the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. The survey's window of time also included the president's surprise trip to Afghanistan.

This month's numbers mark a notable change since the survey was conducted in February, when Romney was still battling for GOP nomination. At that time, Obama held a nine-percentage point advantage over Romney overall.

Since then, Republican rivals Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have dropped out of the race, and many top Republicans have rallied behind Romney.
Recent polls also show Romney gaining ground in key battleground states, including Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

For the survey, The Tarrance Group and Lake Research Partners interviewed 1,000 likely voters by phone between April 29 and May 3. The poll has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Also see:

Romney adviser left after being silenced, source says

Ayotte: I'm more qualified than Obama

Gingrich steps up support for Romney, predicts Mourdock wins in Indiana

Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (36 Responses)
  1. Gurgyl

    I was not asked, I am supporting Obama and with brain no one wants bain capital to ship jobs to china and paid tax 13.2%. Watch youtube when mitt romney came to town.

    May 7, 2012 08:19 am at 8:19 am |

    Romney has problems amongst blacks, latinos & women. These three voting blocks will determine the election. Big problem for Willard.

    May 7, 2012 08:23 am at 8:23 am |
  3. Rod

    It's about time for people to wake up and stop the free-fall of the U.S. Enough of Obama.

    May 7, 2012 08:27 am at 8:27 am |
  4. Lionel

    So who did they survey. When ever we get a poll, we should get the list and demographics of those polled.

    This just gives me more motivation to work harder for Obama to make sure that he wins in 2012.

    Latinos for Obama 2012

    May 7, 2012 08:38 am at 8:38 am |
  5. Ron WPAFB

    And it doesn't mean a thing! There will be polls every 8 hours for the next 6 months. And they will change several times. It isn't NEWS! It means nothing. To poll a specific group of 1000 "likely" voters, Really? Wow!

    May 7, 2012 08:43 am at 8:43 am |
  6. Dean

    At this point of the campaign cycle, this is not a good statistic for the incumbant. The independents who voted for Obama in 2008 now realize that they made a poor choice. The intelligent ones will not repeat the mistake.

    May 7, 2012 08:54 am at 8:54 am |
  7. tee27

    They did not call me ! i`am a independent voter, I just don`t see Mitt winning VA, or OH, and anyone who wants to go back to the Bush days vote for Mitt, Also poll out today in AZ Obama up 6 points wow, Looks like that state will turn blue in 2012.

    May 7, 2012 08:56 am at 8:56 am |
  8. Rudy NYC

    There must be a lot of forgfetful people out there who refuse to think for themselves, and allow others to *tell* them what to think. I have learned my lessons with Republicans, thanks to George W. Bush.

    May 7, 2012 09:00 am at 9:00 am |
  9. Wake up people

    Wow. Americans are dumber than I gave them credit for. How can anyone vote Republican with the way they are conducting themselves. Completely obstructionist Congress with no solutions just criticism. And the icing on the cake, a candidate that the party doesn't like nor care for, he is simply the right color for them. This man is a proven liar and vulture capitalist that bankrupts companies, sends jobs to China, ruins peoples lives and hides money in other countries. And this is the man they want to lead the country? A man that knows ZERO about diplomacy or even bothers to familiarize himself with anything. Wake up people and see the rethuglicans for what they truly are. Traitors to the American people, and should be tried as such.

    People need reminding that this recession started before the POTUS was even elected and the rethuglicans brought all of this down on us and are now trying to blame the POTUS and refusing to help him fix the mess that took years to get us into and will take even more to get out of.

    OBAMA 2012!

    May 7, 2012 09:00 am at 9:00 am |
  10. RealityBites

    "included the president's surprise trip to Afghanistan. "

    Surprise visit!? Very few military operations have received as much self-congratulatory acclaim by a commander in chief as the operation to kill Osama. Mention of his death is a constant in every Obama campaign appearance and fundraiser. Bin Laden's being dead is a staple in Democrat Party direct mail and Internet solicitations and mentioned more often than Obama's Nobel Peace Prize.

    Not to mention that Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement Obama and Karzai signed in the few minutes they spent together is nothing but fluff. The document has glowing words about "shared determination" and "mutual commitments" but is silent on US financial burdens. It contains nothing about how many military personnel will remain in Afghanistan after our "combat forces" are withdrawn in 2014 and fails to describe their mission or capabilities. And most importantly, it, unlike a status of forces agreement, provides NO legal protections for U.S. troops.

    A pied piper sound bite. "Osama is dead, GM is alive."

    May 7, 2012 09:07 am at 9:07 am |
  11. Fair is Fair

    I put little credence in polls at this stage of the game, but this statement has got to be disturbing to Obama –

    "Also in the poll, Romney has a 10-point margin over the president among independents, a crucial voting block, with 48% supporting the former Massachusetts governor, while 38% back Obama."

    May 7, 2012 09:08 am at 9:08 am |
  12. Jim

    If Romney get elected, does a percent of his salary (tax payer dollars) go to the Mormon Church?

    May 7, 2012 09:11 am at 9:11 am |
  13. Larry IN Houston

    don't know how they could be neck and neck – Romney's been endorsed by everyone except mickey mouse. He should be ahead of obama by several points, in practically every poll. He's been endorsed by so many republican governors, and so many high profile people it's pathetic.

    May 7, 2012 09:12 am at 9:12 am |
  14. FedUp

    Obama, take note. Sarkozy was just ousted for the same behaviors you are displaying.

    May 7, 2012 09:18 am at 9:18 am |
  15. Jelly

    If you don't have a job Mitts is your guy!

    May 7, 2012 09:18 am at 9:18 am |
  16. Susan

    I am a woman and a independent. I will vote for Romney. This president has brought to much class warfare and division to this great nation. His campaign speeches in 2008 to bring the country together never happened. And, I don't like my children and grandchildren having to pay off the five trillion dollar deficit he has created while he has been in office for three and half years.

    May 7, 2012 09:19 am at 9:19 am |
  17. Blindersoff

    Don't fall for the devil's trick America, we are not to be controlled by these national polls puppet masters. The news media along with the political process is trying to hype the candidates up as if the election is as simple as a sporting event. 1 for this side and 2 for the other side, 3 for this side and still 2 for the other side. How quickly minds changes from one hour to the next. Stand your ground America. todays candidate is that same candidate from yesterday and will be still the same tomorrow. Romney will always be Romney (core-less, fake and forever trying to Etch-A-Sketch his way out and in) Obama will always be progressive favoring and implementing social reform promoting new liberal ideas establishing a relatively progressive government favoring and promoting change through innovation.

    May 7, 2012 09:20 am at 9:20 am |
  18. SEAL Team Alpha and Omega

    The closest Romney will ever get to the White House is in name only the day after Obama wins his re-election, he takes his dog out on the White House lawn for a walk and to greet the Press and stops to scoop the poop his dog makes with a newspaper with Willard-the-middle-class-killer’s name on the front declaring, "Obama Wins Re-election while Romney Loses bid for White House by a wide margin."

    May 7, 2012 09:22 am at 9:22 am |
  19. SEAL Team Alpha and Omega

    This story cannot be accurate. There is no way that Willard-the-middle-class-killer can even be remotely close to Obama.

    The Nazis are going to be aghast after November when Obama and Biden and 99% of American voters lay down the hammer against the GOP freak show,

    May 7, 2012 09:25 am at 9:25 am |
  20. Lolo

    Stop building up Willards' ego. The polls are lying. Theres is no way this man will be president. They are just trying to make it tight to get the republicans behind him. Ah the dirty tricks the republicans love to play to win.@ Susan the republicans have brought too much class warfare. They are the ones who keep bringing up this crap and there are so many prejudice people in the republican party what else do they have to run on but hatred. As for your children and grandchildren paying off the deficit, that is not true and more than likely you will be in another world. Also Williard will make sure that they do not have a job to pay for anything.

    May 7, 2012 09:28 am at 9:28 am |
  21. Another Day in the RW Idiot Mines

    "It's about time for people to wake up and stop the free-fall of the U.S. Enough of Obama."

    Since when is rising employment, a rising Dow and a sinking bin-Laden evidence of a "free-fall of the US"?

    May 7, 2012 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  22. Another Day in the RW Idiot Mines

    "Bin Laden's being dead is a staple in Democrat Party direct mail and Internet solicitations and mentioned more often than Obama's Nobel Peace Prize."

    Are you suggesting your GOBP cult would not have done the same? To the victor go the spoils, and right now your GOBP cult is the biggest bunch of pathetic losers posing as a political party this nation has ever seen.

    May 7, 2012 09:31 am at 9:31 am |
  23. arpad08@live.com

    An incumbent being tied at this stage is very bad news for camp commie. Hopefully, at least 51% of the country will have enough sense to send this anti-american lunatic packing. He will be remembered as a dark stain on the nation's history.

    May 7, 2012 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  24. Fair is Fair


    If Romney get elected, does a percent of his salary (tax payer dollars) go to the Mormon Church?
    Hmmmm... not that it matters, but why are you not asking the same question about Harry Reid's salary?

    May 7, 2012 09:33 am at 9:33 am |
  25. Another Day in the RW Idiot MInes

    "Obama, take note. Sarkozy was just ousted for the same behaviors you are displaying."

    And here we have a wonderful example of how mentally-deficient low information GOBP cult followers are completely incapable of acknowledging facts and making comparisons. Sarkhozy is the French equivalent of a Republican, yet our poster seems blissfully unaware of that fact.

    May 7, 2012 09:34 am at 9:34 am |
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