Poll: Romney, Obama dead even in dozen swing states
May 7th, 2012
09:24 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Romney, Obama dead even in dozen swing states

(CNN) - With just under six months before Election Day, a new poll indicates President Barack Obama is nearly dead even with rival Mitt Romney in 12 battleground states.

Obama holds a slight two-percentage point advantage–47%-45%–over Romney among registered voters, according to the USA TODAY/Gallup Swing States Poll. The margin is well within the sampling error.

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The margin is smaller than when the poll was last conducted in March, when Obama held a nine-point lead over Romney. Since then, however, two of Romney's Republican opponents – Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich – dropped out of the race, paving a clear path for Romney to the GOP nomination.

The dozen states surveyed in the poll were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

In terms of performance, 46% of voters said Romney would do a good job handling the economy, while 34% said the same about Obama.

The president, however, scored higher in favorability ratings, with 58% saying the president is likable and 31% describing Romney as likable.

Also notable, Democrats have made ground in the enthusiasm gap, according to the poll. For the first time in the last five battleground surveys, more Democrats (57%) than Republicans (46%) said they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting.

The results came the same day as a Politico/George Washington University poll showed Romney with a two-percentage point margin over Obama, a difference also well within the sampling error.

For the USAToday/Gallup Poll, 951 registered voters were questioned by telephone in the 12 swing states between April 26 and May 2. The sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

Also see:

Romney adviser left after being silenced, source says

Ayotte: I'm more qualified than Obama

Gingrich steps up support for Romney, predicts Mourdock wins in Indiana


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (103 Responses)
  1. Ramirez

    Obama is going to lose at least half of these states this time around. Between Obama's anemic economic record and consistently divisive speeches Romney is on the way to making it happen. Obama is likable but so was Bush and likability doesn't cut it when you don't have a job. The government can't do everything and unfortunately a lot of people understand that firsthand who are unemployed or woefully underemployed.

    May 7, 2012 10:53 am at 10:53 am |
  2. LolDems

    You wanna see what another 4 years of BO will bring? 1. More of the same – suffering high unemployment, more Americans giving up seeking work, high spending, high debt, low GNP growth, higher taxes on producers, more animosity and divisiveness.

    Watch France with socialist Hollande and Greece as they implemented spending, higher taxes, and less austerity. We'll have about 5 months to observe the effects of entitlement government and increased spending in the face of high debt, deficits, and unemployment.

    May 7, 2012 10:54 am at 10:54 am |
  3. KS Independant

    Keep one thing in mind people. Telephone surveys only call land lines. The older generation are typically the ones that still have land lines and Obama doesn't do well with them as we all know. Remember back in '08 McCain was actually polling higher than Obama just a few weeks before the election and yet Obama won in a landslide. Telephone polling only tells you something about the people/demographic that they actually call. It's not an accurate way to measure the overall mood as many younger voters aren't polled.

    May 7, 2012 10:56 am at 10:56 am |
  4. Gurgyl

    This nation is already doomed by 2wars, trickle down. Nothing left. If Mitt wins with uneducated votes, this nation is going to be on sale to CHINA. Bain Capital sells to china. Yes, on obama 12..

    May 7, 2012 10:56 am at 10:56 am |
  5. Uche

    Why can't the media question Mitt Romney about his job creation ability when he was governor? At least he was a business man before he was governor so that businessman's credentials he is displaying should have helped him create 3million jobs as governor of Massachussets...I think

    May 7, 2012 10:59 am at 10:59 am |
  6. Wake up people

    Let's get down to the debates so the POTUS can beat Mittens like he stole something. And with or without teleprompters that everyone uses, the POTUS will still kick butt. There won't be any smoke and mirrors in the debates.
    OBAMA 2012!

    May 7, 2012 11:00 am at 11:00 am |
  7. Dean

    luke,az

    It's real simple ; Gov. Romney is a manager and President Obama is a leader. Who do you want to lead America ?

    Well, since I am not a lemming I don't need a leaed that is goinf to lead me to destruction. I'll take the manager and try and save the economy.

    May 7, 2012 11:02 am at 11:02 am |
  8. The Real Tom Paine

    -Four and The Door

    ST
    Whether they are tied up, dead even or lose up, Romney without these blocs: women, Hispanics, blacks, young voters;
    ________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Interesting that you would expect women to vote for Obama. He is negotiating with the Taliban. Really? How does he explain this to women anywhere on Earth?
    But despite his campaign strategy of trying to change the subject, women, Hispanics, blacks and young voters all care primarily about the main issue of 2012. The Economy. This is where Romney wins.
    ******************************************
    Then explain why Romney is not 20 points ahead: you can't. You endlessly shill for someone who was MIA his last 2 years as governor, and raised fees on everything that moved in the state. Romney was the last in a forgetable series on governors for MA, and the only thing that makes him memorable are his gaffes and his shameless hypocrisy.

    May 7, 2012 11:06 am at 11:06 am |
  9. DC Johnny

    @ The Real Tom Paine

    Interesting how the righties still stick to the ancient stereotypes about college students. Nope, they are voting in their self-interest, since the GOP would double interest rates on student loans if they ahd their way, while cutting taxes for people who don't need it. Oh, and in case anyone is wondering, my company's business has skyrocketed while Obama has been in office, and I'm getting ready to trade up to a new house: having one built actually. Why would I even consider voting for someone who reminds me of every lousy, arrogant manager I've ever had to work for? No core, no ideas, no spine, and no balls: that sums up Romney. Just a mindless set of digits.
    =========================================
    Interesting how you liberals reframe the student loan argument as a doubling of taxes, when in reality it's ending a TEMPORARY subsidy to only a small percentage (gov't loans only) of college students, paid for by the rest of us. Why do we the taxpayers need to subsidize the voluntary decision made by college kids who find themselves struggling to pay off a contract they agreed to? How does that make the GOP anti-child, or anti-education? Similarly, how does forcing women to pay for their own birth control instead of the taxpayers make us anti-woman?

    One day – hopefully – the rest of America will wake up and realize that Conservatives stand for individual liberties and individual responsibility, before it's too late and we look like a failing European nation.

    May 7, 2012 11:17 am at 11:17 am |
  10. king

    These people are OK with corporations running our country, we better start expecting to start working for minimum wages like the Chinese do. We better start preparing to compete with 6 times more Chinese worker, getting the same pay. I wonder how well that will turn out, when the repubs cut our spending money, I wonder where big corporations will take their businesses to, hint it wont be us. Mitten whole experience is to make fewer folks make money son the backs of the majority, and with the repubs mantra of leaving the free market alone to decide America future, I guest we will be in a lot of trouble when share holders start directing free markets to take their businesses to China to make their pockets fatter.

    May 7, 2012 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
  11. Four and The Door

    The Real Tom Paine
    ...Interesting how the righties still stick to the ancient stereotypes about college students. Nope, they are voting in their self-interest, since the GOP would double interest rates on student loans if they ahd their way, while cutting taxes for people who don't need it.
    _____________________________________________________________________________________________
    I guess your idea would be to have no interest on student loans and automatically qualify every American student who graduates High School for $100,000 interest free for 4 years of college. What would happen? The price of college would skyrocket just like it has in the last 4 decades. Why? Because of all the money available. That's the problem. Colleges and Universities get more and more expensive because they can. Aren't we almost at the point where too many kids can't afford to college in America? That's a problem. Low interest is not the answer. It is part of the root cause.

    May 7, 2012 11:22 am at 11:22 am |
  12. maf

    951 poll respondents in 12 states??? About 80 calls per state and you call that a representative sample??
    You should be ashamed to bring up a poll result like this one. This election will boil down to who gets the vote out better.
    2010, the Dems were rather apathetic to allow the GOP/Tea Party their one shot at glory!
    Come November, if the Dems don't get out to vote in greater numbers than their GOP counterparts, then it will be closer than expected.
    Yes, President Obama did state that if the economy wasn't better than when he was elected. . . blah, blah, blah.
    The amount of obstruction, partisanship, filibustering and fear mongering coming from the right has been nothing short of treasonous. Can't wait to read these boards once the President is rewarded with a second term. The GOP will be fuming, floundering and apoplectic. Great fun to watch!

    May 7, 2012 11:23 am at 11:23 am |
  13. Seriously America??

    The media can spread all the propaganda they want but nothing is going to stop OUR president from winning a second term. Hoooooray Mr President if they refuse to tell you, then I will. You will go down as one of the best President in history. Mark my word.

    OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
    CLINTON/WARREN 2106

    May 7, 2012 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  14. The REAL Truth...

    Dean – think you may have not read up on the definition of a lemming... and the economy IS being saved. It's just going to take a little longer... and honestly, I'd rather keep my job and not have Bain/Mittens send it offshore.

    May 7, 2012 11:24 am at 11:24 am |
  15. george of the jungle

    sad day for americans if mitt gets in office This country needs to move forward. Obama 2012

    May 7, 2012 11:25 am at 11:25 am |
  16. Cynthia L.

    What does Romney think about the fact that many American Corporations, including Dick Cheney's beloved Halliburton, and many others, have done business with Iran and other nasty players on the world scene through their offshore tax haven subsidiaries?? Secrets protected more than people. Money more important than morals.
    And, what has Romney done with his own offshore tax havens? More of the same? He has cheated his own government of taxes and made himself a rich man doing so. What is the real reason this man wants to be president? Seems like he likes his offshore tax havens and his rich man tax breaks so much he wants to keep them going forever for himself and his buds.
    I smell a rat, that includes our rat Congress who have all but bottled up a bill to prevent the use of shell corporations to hide true ownership of assets owned in our country. The New York Times stated that the British Virgin Islands, for
    example, have a total of 30,000 residents AND something like 756,000 listed corporations,.....leads you to believe that rich will find ways to stay rich come hell or high water and the rest of us are losers because of it, no?? It's everybody else's responsiblity to pay for police, military, firemen, roads, infastructure, teachers, on and on, and on.
    How is Mitt to "set an example" of financial accountability? I don't think he can NOR do I think he wants to.

    May 7, 2012 11:27 am at 11:27 am |
  17. Anonymous

    "Interesting that you would expect women to vote for Obama. He is negotiating with the Taliban. Really? How does he explain this to women anywhere on Earth?"

    Always the fool, aren't you?

    May 7, 2012 11:29 am at 11:29 am |
  18. I want America Back

    I can't believe you people and your Obama 2012.....He is a leader? No he is the direct issue

    May 7, 2012 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  19. Peace

    If Romney campaign is going to stick on Gallup polls and believe them you are doomed to fail. The different sizes of crowds each candidate draws, tells it all. No one needs polls to understand how things are going.

    May 7, 2012 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  20. MTATL67

    Republican party have lost the women, Hispanic vote and never had the black vote and without those groups Romney cannot win. Because the Republican lost the women, Hispanic vote they will also lose control of the House.

    May 7, 2012 11:30 am at 11:30 am |
  21. Democrat Class Warfare - Destroying the economy, destroying the country

    In terms of performance, 46% of voters said Romney would do a good job handling the economy, while 34% said the same about Obama.
    ===========================================================================================
    It is truly discouraging that 34% are so poorly informed and totally clueless. That describes a large part of Obama's support at this point.

    May 7, 2012 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  22. Four and The Door

    The REAL Truth...
    Dean – think you may have not read up on the definition of a lemming... and the economy IS being saved. It's just going to take a little longer... and honestly, I'd rather keep my job and not have Bain/Mittens send it offshore.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________
    Which American company is creating the most jobs in China? General Motors. Ironic, isn't it? Good paying manufacturing jobs, too.

    May 7, 2012 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  23. Woman In California

    All we have to do is get out and VOTE in November and that is my FULL intention. These polls whether the favor the president or not mean absoultely nothing as I and MANY other Americans have never been polled.

    Obama 2012

    May 7, 2012 11:37 am at 11:37 am |
  24. betterdays

    Romney needs to be up by five nationwide in order to win. The president can easily "find" enough votes in critical states to overcome a one or two point deficit.

    May 7, 2012 11:38 am at 11:38 am |
  25. The Real Tom Paine

    -Four and The Door

    The Real Tom Paine
    ...Interesting how the righties still stick to the ancient stereotypes about college students. Nope, they are voting in their self-interest, since the GOP would double interest rates on student loans if they ahd their way, while cutting taxes for people who don't need it.
    _____________________________________________________________________________________________
    I guess your idea would be to have no interest on student loans and automatically qualify every American student who graduates High School for $100,000 interest free for 4 years of college. What would happen? The price of college would skyrocket just like it has in the last 4 decades. Why? Because of all the money available. That's the problem. Colleges and Universities get more and more expensive because they can. Aren't we almost at the point where too many kids can't afford to college in America? That's a problem. Low interest is not the answer. It is part of the root cause.
    ****************************************
    Because of all the money available? That is your response? The sooner you can get a kid out in the world and productive in society ( which requires some post-secondary education) and contributing to it, the better. What you propose is nothing more than debt slavery. The sooner they can pay off their debts, the better. Why are you interested in making it harder for them to get started in teh world? I'm not proposing interest-free loans, but to double the rate on existing loans while continuing to advocate for tax cuts is utterly irresponsible. Based upon what you propose, I guess you would cancel tuition breaks for veterans: am I correct, since you seem to be taking a leap by suggesting I want the banks to lend money for fee. I don't advocate itnerst free loans, but don't allow them to double the interest rate: would you tolerate that on a mortgage? I guess you wouldn't mind it in the least.

    May 7, 2012 11:39 am at 11:39 am |
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