CNN's GUT CHECK | for June 1, 2012 | 5 p.m.
– n. a pause to assess the state, progress or condition of the political news cycle
BREAKING… DEAD HEAT ON TOP ISSUE: NEW CNN/ORC POLL SHOWS OBAMA AND ROMNEY TIED ON ECONOMY. When asked which candidate better understands how the economy works 45% select Obama and 45% select Romney. If the election were held today, Obama would top Romney 49%-46%, a margin that is within the poll’s sampling error. According to CNN Polling Director Keating Holland, “The race for the White House is very close, partly because neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney have a clear advantage on the No.1 issue - the economy.” LINK
Related: Dow erases 2012 gains
“To act upon one’s convictions while others wait, to create a positive force in a world where cynics abound, to provide information to people when it wasn’t available before.” This poem by Ed Kessler was read by what business magnate at the opening of what business on this day in history?
There are more wireless devices in the United States than there are Americans, according to CITA-The Wireless Association’s Semi-Annual survey. How will this mobile revolution change politics?
We asked two pioneers of digital technology, to help us peek into the future of mobile politics.
Ross McLean, Director of Over the Shoulder, a digital research company
Mobile gives a voice and an organizing platform to millions of potential voters who previously lacked the means to have their influence brought to bear, and brings them roaring into the political process. It puts the tool of mass influence into the hands of individuals in an unprecedented way, and its effects are just beginning to be felt.
When it comes to political polling and political insight, mobile is on the precipice of dramatically upending the system. Through the decades, political polling has moved from the telephone to the desktop computer and will now move rapidly to the smart phone. As this happens, a new level of political insight, accuracy, and timeliness will become possible that simply didn't exist before.
Through the mobile phone or smart phone, political polling can now be done with audiences that were previously unrepresented, with groups of people over time, and quickly enough to keep up with the relentless pace of today's political process.
Not only can pollsters get the numbers, but they can now also get the texture. In this election cycle, smartphone-based polling will dramatically change how political parties understand the voters they want to influence. The progressive players are already there, understanding the political moments as they happen, and tailoring their messaging and response on the fly.
Allen Gannett (@Allen), Venture capitalist & technology columnist.
To understand how mobile is changing politics, it is important to look at mobile advertising. Usually poli-tech is a couple of years behind ad-tech. Right now, mobile advertising is focused on closing the loop between geographic-aware intent and purchases. For example, if I'm inside Best Buy and I search for television pricing on my phone, the Best Buys of the world will start to run ads trying to convince (me) to complete the purchase in the store. They're leveraging the intent signaled via mobile location to drive behavior. Similarly, in politics we're seeing the rise of campaigns using location and time data to drive voter intent. People literally have their phones inside voting booths, if they search for information on political issues from a polling location, your campaign needs to be advertising to that person. And for those of you with legal degrees, is it just a matter of time till this trips up electioneering laws.
In terms of what's next, look in the next 12-24 months for carriers beginning to send mobile advertisers demographic information about their subscribers. This data will allow for location-aware demographic targeting. This will be widely used for the 2014 campaign cycle. Want to target 25 year old women in a certain zip code who are currently near a polling location? Mobile is going to let you do that.
Did you miss it?
Leading CNNPolitics: Why politicians lie and why we want to believe them
Wolf Blitzer and Donald Trump's heated showdown this week over claims of a conspiracy to conceal President Barack Obama's true birthplace was, at its core, an argument about lying. – Halimah Abdullah
Leading Drudge: Unemployment Goes Up: Rate At 8.2%
Job growth braked sharply in May and the unemployment rate rose for the first time in 11 months, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy further to shore up the sputtering recovery. – Lucia Mutikani
Leading HuffPo: Scott Walker Debate: Tom Barrett Accuses Governor Of Running 'Willie Horton' Ad
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) accused Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) during the gubernatorial debate on Thursday of running an inappropriate ad about crime in his city, comparing it to the much-criticized "Willie Horton" ad of the 1988 presidential campaign. – Amanda Terkel
Leading Politico: Job woes rattle Obama's strategy
President Barack Obama had hoped to make the 2012 campaign a referendum on Mitt Romney’s Bain record, Massachusetts stumbles and what Obama’s team sees as Romney’s robotic oddness — but the economy has other ideas. – Glenn Thrush and Josh Boak
Leading New York Times: Recall Election Could Foretell November Vote
The Wisconsin vote pitting Gov. Scott Walker against Tom Barrett will send a message about Americans’ attitudes toward candidates who cut collective bargaining rights. – Monica Davey
Leading Bloomberg: Obama Tells Donors More Time Needed on Health Care
Bloomberg's Hans Nichols reports that President Barack Obama is confiding to Democratic donors that he may have to revisit the health-care issue in a second term, a position at odds with his publicly expressed confidence that the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold the Affordable Care Act, according to three Democratic activists.
The political bites of the day
– Obama Sees ‘Stiff Headwinds’ –
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA AT A CAMPAIGN EVENT IN MINNESOTA: “Today we are still fighting our way back from the worst economic crisis in America. The economy is growing again but it is not growing as fast as we want it to grow. Our businesses have created almost 4.3 million new jobs over the last 27 months but as we learned in today’s jobs report, we are still not creating them as fast as we want. Just like at this time last year, our economy is still facing some stiff headwinds.”
– Romney Sees more than ‘Stiff Headwinds’ –
MITT ROMNEY IN AN INTERVIEW CNBC: “The president's policies and his handling of the economy has been dealt a harsh indictment this morning. And it continues. We've had 40 straight months with unemployment over 8%. Forty straight months… Their policies have not worked and in many respects the policies have made it harder for the economy to recover.”
– A tale of two Clintons –
FORMER PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON OFF MESSAGE IN AN INTERVIEW WITH CNN’s PIERS MORGAN: “There's no question that in terms of getting up and going to the office and, you know, basically performing the essential functions of the office, the man who has been governor (Romney) and had a sterling business career crosses the qualification threshold.”
FORMER PRESIDENT BILL CLINTON ON MESSAGE AT A CAMAPIGN EVENT FOR TOM BARRETT IN WISCONISN: “Every day when a child in Wisconsin says the Pledge of Allegiance it is a rebuke to the far right, winner take all, take no prisoners, divide and conquer, constant conflict philosophy of government. You get a chance, a second chance to do that. Ordinarily I am against recall elections… but sometimes it is the only way to avoid a disastrous course.”
– Jeb Bush Smacks Down Grover Norquist’s tax pledge –
FORMER FLORIDA GOV. JEB BUSH IN A HOUSE BUDGET COMMITTEE HEARING: “I ran for office three times. The pledge was presented to me three times. I never signed the pledge. I cut taxes every year I was governor. I don't believe you outsource your principles and convictions to people. I respect Grover's political involvement. He has it every right to do it, but I never signed any pledge.”
QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Being a gay in Massachusetts is no problem. Being a Republican's a little more difficult” – GOP congressional candidate Richard Tisei talking to CNN’s Dana Bash about being the first openly gay Republican to run for Congress. (Note: Rep. Kolbe and Gunderson acknowledged being gay while they were in office.)
What stopped us in 140 characters or less
GOP ads more negative that Democrats' spots in general election presidential battle: bit.ly/JYqGb5—
Paul Steinhauser (@psteinhauserCNN) June 01, 2012
CNN/ORC poll: 82% of Americans have favorable view of Queen Elizabeth II (highest figure in American polling); she's America's fav royal—
Ram Ramgopal (@RamCNN) June 01, 2012
Dan Merica (@danmericaCNN) June 01, 2012
Wow, suddenly all economic news is bad: US and Euro unemployment up, stock market down, growth slowing, Asia slowing down too. #election2012—
Gerald F Seib (@GeraldFSeib) June 01, 2012
Noonan demands more: "Mr. Romney has to give us a plan. He has to tell us his priorities. To lead is to prioritize." on.wsj.com/N3VCLy—
Jon Ward (@jonward11) June 01, 2012
Would the U.S. army be ready for an alien invasion? bit.ly/LNg4dT—
Foreign Policy (@FP_Magazine) June 01, 2012
CNN turns 32 today.
At the official CNN launch in Atlanta, Georgia, Ted Turner read a poem by Ed Kessler. “To act upon one’s convictions while others wait, to create a positive force in a world where cynics abound, to provide information to people when it wasn’t available before…” Turner read. “I dedicate the news channel for America, The Cable News Network.”
The first story to run on CNN was a story about the attempted assassination of civil rights activist Vernon Jordan. From the outset of CNN, Turner felt the cable news channel had an obligation to the American public.
“I know that we will succeed and I pledge to you that we will not let the American public down,” Turner said in an interview leading up to CNN’s launch.
In an interview that Piers Morgan will air tonight, Turner said he wanted CNN to be like the New York Times. “Cover the substantial news and that doesn't mean you don't cover Hollywood, you don't cover kidnappings and the sensational, too. But the emphasis should be on hard news,” Turner said. “I wanted CNN to be the ‘New York Times’ for the news business, not the - not ‘The Daily News.’ I wanted it to be ‘The New York Times.’"
Four CNN staff members currently working in the Washington bureau were there on the first day of CNN. CNN Senior National Security Producer Pam Benson, CNN Senior Producer Carol Cratty, Assignment Editor Vito Maggiolo and Editor/Producer Julian Styles are all what we call CNN Originals. We love learning from their “guts”.
CNN has now grown even beyond Turner’s vision as America’s news network. CNN’s two dozen branded networks and services are available to more than 2 billion people in more than 200 countries and territories.
In 2011, more people relied on CNN Digital than any other television network for news and commentary. CNN.com averages more than 100 million video starts per month globally. Keeping Turner’s spirit for innovation, CNN has been No. 1 in mobile news for nearly five consecutive years. iReport, CNN’s participatory journalism community, has an iReporter in every country in the world, despite being only five years-old.
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