Poll of Polls: Obama ahead of Romney, but slightly
July 5th, 2012
02:43 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll of Polls: Obama ahead of Romney, but slightly

(CNN) - President Barack Obama has a slight 3-point advantage over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in Thursday's CNN Poll of Polls, a sample of three recent national surveys of the presidential race.

It shows Obama at 48% and Romney at 45%.

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The CNN Poll of Polls includes the most recent CNN/ORC International Poll, which was conducted between June 28 and July 1; the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, conducted between June 27 and July 3; and the Newsweek/Daily Beast Poll, conducted on June 28.

Obama's advantage over Romney is within the sampling error of each survey. As an average of other polls, the CNN Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

In the CNN/ORC International Poll, Obama is ahead of Romney, 49% to 46%. The sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

The Gallup poll includes results of the past seven days and has Obama over Romney, 48% to 44%, with a sampling error of plus or minus two percentage points.

Obama has 47% and Romney 44% in the Newsweek/Daily Beast poll. While the CNN and Gallup polls include registered voters, the Newsweek survey includes only likely voters and has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

The CNN poll also showed Romney with an advantage over Obama in the 15 states listed as battlegrounds on the CNN Electoral Map. Romney was ahead of Obama 51% to 43% in those states, including those that are leaning but not solid for Obama or Romney and those which appear to be true tossups.

The battleground survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.

Those battleground numbers are not part of the CNN Poll of Polls.

The CNN Poll of Polls is not a scientific survey.

– CNN's Paul Steinhauser and Gregory Wallace contributed to this report


Filed under: 2012 • CNN Poll of polls • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (38 Responses)
  1. T'sah From Virginia

    President Obama was in the top 40's the entire time polls were taken before 2008. Back then, the media constantly talked about why the NOW President Obama could not cross 50% in the polls – it was white men vs. black men, blue collar vs. white collar, white vs. black, educated vs. uneducated, women vs. men, etc. –

    NOW, it's the same old spin – President Obama will be reelected this November and it will have NOTHING to do with POLLS that do not tell the whole truth – President Obama will be reelected on his record that the American people are finally realizing is working VERSES the lies that the RIGHT is trying to instill!!!

    Obama 2012 – The Only Trusted Way Forward!

    July 5, 2012 03:45 pm at 3:45 pm |
  2. NYCLPoster

    The night of the Walker re-election all the MSM outlets told us they were also "neck and neck". We all know how that turned out. November cant come soon enough. Oh' and by the way, this Presidents social security number has also just been proven to be false. Have a nice day Obama-bots.

    July 5, 2012 03:57 pm at 3:57 pm |
  3. Anonymous

    1) if the election was held tomorrow, all Obama would need to do is win Florida, on top of the other states already solidly in his corner, and he would become President right there (or any other combination of a couple battleground states equal to the same number of delegates as Florida); 2) but the election won't be held tomorrow, of course; the debates haven't even happened yet; and anyone who thinks Romney is going to win those debates is just fooling themselves. Obama will gain even more ground after the debates. Plus, all this talk about how the overall popular vote is close means very little when you look at the electoral map. Obama is going to win this election.

    July 5, 2012 03:58 pm at 3:58 pm |
  4. KMadd

    Polls...Polls...Polls, In my forthy years of voting, I have never been included in one of these polls! Where do they get this information?
    Regarding our President, Another 4 YEARS! Regarding our congress, they are ALL OUT! I'll take the man who works for the people over the selfish group of law breaking criminals we have righ now. Fire them all and keep Obama.

    July 5, 2012 03:59 pm at 3:59 pm |
  5. Glenn Doty

    Hmm... well, whatever metric your "battleground survey" uses has no bearing on actual polls taken within those same states:

    AZ: Romney +6.7... 11 EV's Red
    CO: Obama +3.8... 9 EV's blue
    FL: Obama +1.9... 29 EV's blue
    IA: Obama +2.0... 6 EV's blue
    IN: Romney +9.0... 11 EV's red
    MI: Obama +3.3... 16 EV's blue
    MO: Romney+2.8... 10 EV's red
    NH: Obama+4.2... 4 EV's blue
    NM: Obama+14.4... 5 EV's blue (calling this "battleground" is foolish)
    NC: Romney+1.1... 15 EV's red
    NV: Obama+5.0... 6 EV's blue
    OH: Obama+4.7... 18 EV's blue
    PA: Obama+6.4... 20 EV's blue
    VA: Obama+2.4... 13 EV's blue
    WI: Obama+6.1... 10 EV's blue.

    So a quick tally shows that with the ACTUAL POLLING RESULTS, Obama is winning 11 of those states with a total of 136 EV's... giving Obama a current EV lead of 332 to Romney's 206. Romney is going to have to win 63 or more EV's that he's currently losing in order to become the next POTUS.

    Of course, that's going to be tough considering there's really no realistic chance that Romney will take PA, MI, WI, NM, or CO... But it's also highly unlikely that Obama will eek out a win in IN or AZ.

    The actual battleground is far smaller than what CNN is willing to admit.

    July 5, 2012 03:59 pm at 3:59 pm |
  6. ge

    poles are good for the delivery of hydro and cable and street lights

    July 5, 2012 04:07 pm at 4:07 pm |
  7. demwit

    Likely Voters!? What a dirty trick..., remove Newsweek from CNN;s Poll of Polls

    July 5, 2012 04:09 pm at 4:09 pm |
  8. Here we go again

    Obama is going to be re-elected.

    July 5, 2012 04:10 pm at 4:10 pm |
  9. demwit

    "battleground numbers are not part of the CNN Poll of Polls" Nice job Keating.., I hate those numbers too!

    July 5, 2012 04:12 pm at 4:12 pm |
  10. Sniffit

    "Since when is AZ, IN and MO swings states?"

    Since it helps CNN stilt the numbers to blabber about Mittens having a large % lead in the "battleground states" in order to drum up more controversy and sensational "debate" with which to grab viewers to feed advertising.

    July 5, 2012 04:19 pm at 4:19 pm |
  11. vic , nashville ,tn

    Obama has vision , and Obama has story to tell , Romney out of tough

    July 5, 2012 04:20 pm at 4:20 pm |
  12. Bucktooth

    The Clown states will always be whr they are!Az, IN, and MO can be more racistthan the South!!

    July 5, 2012 04:31 pm at 4:31 pm |
  13. Observer from North of the 49th

    @willard bullock
    Kick out of presdient obama 2012 cause who recived fraud check scam from afrcian amercian so people are cheat vote support for presdient obama from frauad acorn and frauad check scam from afrcian amercian
    Please repblulic congress must keep eye against fraud check scam from afrcian amercian

    -----------------------------------------------------–

    Are you friggin kidding me, where did you go to school ??

    July 5, 2012 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
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