Poll of Polls: Obama ahead of Romney, but slightly
July 5th, 2012
02:43 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll of Polls: Obama ahead of Romney, but slightly

(CNN) - President Barack Obama has a slight 3-point advantage over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in Thursday's CNN Poll of Polls, a sample of three recent national surveys of the presidential race.

It shows Obama at 48% and Romney at 45%.

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The CNN Poll of Polls includes the most recent CNN/ORC International Poll, which was conducted between June 28 and July 1; the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, conducted between June 27 and July 3; and the Newsweek/Daily Beast Poll, conducted on June 28.

Obama's advantage over Romney is within the sampling error of each survey. As an average of other polls, the CNN Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

In the CNN/ORC International Poll, Obama is ahead of Romney, 49% to 46%. The sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

The Gallup poll includes results of the past seven days and has Obama over Romney, 48% to 44%, with a sampling error of plus or minus two percentage points.

Obama has 47% and Romney 44% in the Newsweek/Daily Beast poll. While the CNN and Gallup polls include registered voters, the Newsweek survey includes only likely voters and has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

The CNN poll also showed Romney with an advantage over Obama in the 15 states listed as battlegrounds on the CNN Electoral Map. Romney was ahead of Obama 51% to 43% in those states, including those that are leaning but not solid for Obama or Romney and those which appear to be true tossups.

The battleground survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.

Those battleground numbers are not part of the CNN Poll of Polls.

The CNN Poll of Polls is not a scientific survey.

– CNN's Paul Steinhauser and Gregory Wallace contributed to this report


Filed under: 2012 • CNN Poll of polls • Mitt Romney • President Obama
soundoff (38 Responses)
  1. Namejkane fl SEND THE THREE TIME LOSER romney HOME AND MAKE IT FOUR.

    Romney the clown and the republican bafoon party are going to lose in a Dem landslide in Nov . Obama and the DEMS have my vote in Florida .

    July 5, 2012 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  2. Myviewis

    Especially now that people have a confirmation that of the 2 choices the Obama administration gave the Supreme Court, chose between Penalty or Tax and the Supreme Court finding that the Penalty choice Obama gave them was not an option and it had to chose the Tax and now we have a Tax from the Obama administration when he said he wouldn' tax middle class, he wanted to Tax the rich. Obama should have known the Penalty option was one the Supreme Court could not accept.

    July 5, 2012 02:57 pm at 2:57 pm |
  3. Claudia, Houston, Tx

    FORWARD Mr. President, FORWARD.

    July 5, 2012 02:57 pm at 2:57 pm |
  4. Fair is Fair

    "Those battleground numbers are not part of the CNN Poll of Polls. "

    "The CNN Poll of Polls is not a scientific survey. "
    ---------–
    Well then... thanks for the big steaming pile of nothing.

    July 5, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  5. Namejkane fl SEND THE THREE TIME LOSER romney HOME AND MAKE IT FOUR.

    What a bunch of crapp ,Dem landslide coming for Obama ,we don't need romney and his George bush advisors to send the country down the toilet again ,Obamas got my vote .

    July 5, 2012 03:01 pm at 3:01 pm |
  6. Patrick Campbell

    I think everyone is tired of these polls. Its only July. Not everyone is paying attention.
    At least wait until around Sept/Oct. Enjoy the summer. Furthermore who are you guys polling. I have never
    met anyone who has been polled.

    July 5, 2012 03:03 pm at 3:03 pm |
  7. kayla

    when the debates start he will lead even more.

    July 5, 2012 03:06 pm at 3:06 pm |
  8. Donkey Party

    And after the debates, Romney will lose by a landslide. What are all you right-wingers going to do after President Obama gets re-elected? Move to Canada? Can't go there, too much socialism, right? How about Mexico? Oops, can't go there, since the GOP has demonstrated so clearly how much they despise Hispanics, so I doubt you'd be well received. Here's a thought, how about Iran for you Teavangelicals who so desperately crave a Theocracy, and Sudan or Somalia for you wingnuts that insist upon a smaller (or no) government? Bon Voyage, losers!

    July 5, 2012 03:09 pm at 3:09 pm |
  9. mcskadittle

    Fair is Fair: of course if it had said that mitt was leading you would be thinking highly of the poll

    July 5, 2012 03:11 pm at 3:11 pm |
  10. 2020

    Romney waiter-in-chief had two plates stuffed into his throat. tax or penalty. He knows best in Mass care.

    Two job reports indicate more private sector jobs created in June, it should reflect in the Labor job report tomorrow.

    By and large, President's job strategy is solid and steady hand, fair and for middle class.

    Romney offshoring in chief will make China and India very happy at the expense of Amercian people. How can anyone put up with that?

    Highway bill finally passed last week after GOP dragged its feet for 9 months.

    America optimistic outlook for economy jumped 60%, for very good reason. Finally, Obama out smart GOP Congress.

    Economy getting stronger, more people find jobs. – America returns to its glory after 8 years of dark ages of Bush/Cheney.

    Pray and praise.

    July 5, 2012 03:16 pm at 3:16 pm |
  11. Expat American

    The polls remain close at the moment because Romney has yet to address any real issues, answer any real questions, and face up to the tired recycled rhetoric that he’s been hiding behind for the better part of a year. Once he does, the gap will start getting larger and larger. And after Romney selects Eichmann Rove as his running mate, because the GOP wants to go to war with Iran by January 2013, that chasm will be even larger than that.

    July 5, 2012 03:20 pm at 3:20 pm |
  12. 2020

    Fair is Fair, face the music.

    If you lose your job next round, Romney could easily get you a job, your choice: China or India.

    or, you can work in Staples selling MADE IN CHINA sweat shop.

    July 5, 2012 03:20 pm at 3:20 pm |
  13. .. a laurel and hardy handshake ........

    Well folks, here's why YOU SHOULD VOTE FOR PRESIDENT BARAK H. OBAMA'S RE-ELECTION:
    ..
    1 – PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS NOT INVADED THE WRONG COUNTRY.
    ..
    2 – PRESIDENT OBAMA HAS DREDGED THE U.S. ECONOMY OUT OF THE DEEPEST PART OF THE OCEAN WHERE the TEAM OF ROVE-CHENEY-DUBYA (supported by the TEANUT-GOP) SENT IT !!
    ..
    THINK ABOUT YOUR MONEY; remember HOOVER, NIXON, REAGAN, and DUBYA !!
    ..

    July 5, 2012 03:21 pm at 3:21 pm |
  14. Rudy NYC

    Myviewis wrote:

    Especially now that people have a confirmation that of the 2 choices the Obama administration gave the Supreme Court, chose between Penalty or Tax and the Supreme Court finding that the Penalty choice Obama gave them was not an option and it had to chose the Tax and now we have a Tax from the Obama administration when he said he wouldn' tax middle class, he wanted to Tax the rich. Obama should have known the Penalty option was one the Supreme Court could not accept.
    --------------–
    The current SCOTUS is the same court that reached its' decision on citizen's united, and that corporations are "people".

    (Aren't "people" supposed to have the right to vote? That's next, folks.)

    July 5, 2012 03:22 pm at 3:22 pm |
  15. Name willardbullock

    Kick out of presdient obama 2012 cause who recived fraud check scam from afrcian amercian so people are cheat vote support for presdient obama from frauad acorn and frauad check scam from afrcian amercian
    Please repblulic congress must keep eye against fraud check scam from afrcian amercian

    July 5, 2012 03:25 pm at 3:25 pm |
  16. Joan

    It would be interesting to see the actual results of the 15 so- called swing state polls because this certainly does not seem to jive at all with the latest battleground polls on Real Clear Politics. Of the 12 battleground states Pres. Obama was ahead in ten of the twelve states. Also, in the last 22 head- to- head polls, Pres. Obama was ahead in 18, Romney was ahead in 3 and they tied in 2 polls. It doesn't seem possible that Romney could really be ahead of the President by fifteen points even by a long stretch. Before making these headline conclusions, shouldn't the public get to see the actual results?

    July 5, 2012 03:28 pm at 3:28 pm |
  17. GROVER NORQUIST IS A ENEMY OF THE STATE/ConservaFASCISTS

    Well said Donkey Party. But you see conservfascists don't keep their promises. I'm still waiting for Rush to move to Costa Rica.

    July 5, 2012 03:29 pm at 3:29 pm |
  18. Florida for Obama

    As you all know Romney is a flip-flop candidate since the GOP primaries... from each state to state from day to day...Americans are tired of his speak and action...Now Conversations dislike him... Businessmen don't trust him...Middle-class disagree with him....Women voters will not vote for him... Young people don't like him at all.... I don't know how Romney can win this election... He has a lot of money form Rich people or 1% people ...but he will not have my vote for this election....Vote for Obama...

    July 5, 2012 03:29 pm at 3:29 pm |
  19. CanadaONE

    21% of the 45% are racists – they are just voting against anybody of colour – if you take the out of the counting =
    OBAMA 48% mitt 24% – double

    July 5, 2012 03:30 pm at 3:30 pm |
  20. GL

    The only reason why Mitt is still in the race is because he is a rich white man. Mitt Romney have no core principles or any no real policies so the facts remains that Mitt race have alot to do with him being this close.

    July 5, 2012 03:32 pm at 3:32 pm |
  21. Elizabeth

    Since when is AZ, IN and MO swings states?

    July 5, 2012 03:33 pm at 3:33 pm |
  22. ttim

    Obama is a leader! Thank you for the ACA! Just got a letter of denial from a health ins. co. today because of a surgery I had years ago! Can't wait until 2114!
    OBAMA 2012!

    July 5, 2012 03:36 pm at 3:36 pm |
  23. Claudia, Houston, Tx

    @Myviews
    Consider yourself an "intellectual light weight" having voted for Palin even though you refuse to admit it, I know it's true. Putting Palin on the ticket was a big mistake for John McCain but it was intellectual light weights like you who do bare some of the responsibility and now you're right back fighting another losing battle. THE HEALTHCARE LAW HAS PASSED, done, over with.

    July 5, 2012 03:41 pm at 3:41 pm |
  24. BLKMANinAmerica

    So what polls do not select the President (thank God) or well end up with a mess like GWBush & company gave America.

    July 5, 2012 03:44 pm at 3:44 pm |
  25. once upon a horse

    as I said before the only poll that counts will be the one in Nov. The good news at least for Democrats might be that tomorrow's jobs report may not be all that bad.

    July 5, 2012 03:45 pm at 3:45 pm |
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