Poll: Obama holds slight edge over Romney in swing states
July 8th, 2012
05:23 PM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Obama holds slight edge over Romney in swing states

(CNN) – A new poll released Sunday indicates the presidential race between Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama is still tight in a dozen major battlegrounds.

According to the latest survey by USA Today/Gallup, the president has a small advantage over his Republican rival, 47% to 45%, in 12 key states. The two-point margin falls well within the poll's sampling error.

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Obama's edge over Romney represents the same two-point margin he held when the same poll was last conducted in May.

When zooming out to include voters from the other states, the gap expands to a four-point margin in favor of Obama, 48% to 44%.

However, political observers and both campaigns say the race will ultimately be decided by a select portion of swing states.

Gallup surveyed voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Nevada and Virginia - all states that CNN rates as toss-ups on its Electoral Map.

The poll also included voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico - four states CNN considers leaning toward Obama - as well as voters in North Carolina, a state leaning toward Romney, according to a CNN analysis.

Also of note, the poll shows the barrage of attack ads on swing-state airwaves has caused a slight change in voters' minds.

One in 12 say the commercials have altered their opinion about Obama or Romney, with 76% of them now favoring the president compared to 16% who say they switched to Romney.

Both campaigns have taken out state-specific commercials in such states as Iowa, Virginia and Ohio.

For the USA TODAY survey, Gallup questioned 1,200 registered voters in the dozen swing states by telephone June 22-29, with a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points. For non-swing states, 2,404 registered voters were interviewed during the same time period.

–CNN Senior Producer Kevin Bohn contributed to this report.


Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (37 Responses)
  1. Claudia, Houston, Tx

    Has anyone ever thought about what a Romney inauguaration would look like or who would be his WH spiritual advisor. Think about it, I'm just curious.

    July 8, 2012 05:28 pm at 5:28 pm |
  2. Texas Observer

    I'm beginning to think that even though there have been mediocre numbers coming out of the jobs reports for the country Pres. Obama is going to start to pull away. He needs Ohio to win again or Florida for that matter. Once the debates start and more stuff is exposed on Romney's personal financial moves with $$$ abroad, the President will become a two term President which is something I never thought would happen.

    July 8, 2012 05:47 pm at 5:47 pm |
  3. etimo

    Obama will win cos of many reason. Romney is a very big flawed candidate. He doesn't come across as a sincere person cos nobody knows his position on anything n everything. He has not offered any real alternative but d same GOP policies that led to the recession. Hate or like Obama, everyone knows wat he stands for including his principles. Dats y he is ahead of Romney. Hate or like Obama's policies, they took us out of d GOP led recession. It's scary thinking of a new GOP govt. Hmmm another great recession.

    July 8, 2012 05:56 pm at 5:56 pm |
  4. Anonymous

    till the swing states see the vanity fair article coming out...and Mitt discloses about his SWIISS BANK ACCOUNTS. goodbye Robme...don't let the door hit you on the way out! (isn't that what you told your job losers in all the Bain takeovers? ya, thought so.)

    July 8, 2012 06:06 pm at 6:06 pm |
  5. CoJo

    I'll listen to Romney AFTER
    1- he puts his complete employment plan on the table. Reducing taxes is not a plan. It is just gravy on the meat and potatoes.
    2- he puts his "common sense" health plan on the table. I'd even accept a GOP plan. So far no plan from either.
    3- he stands up and does like JFK did about religion instead of pulling a Santorum (force people to live to his beliefs... no such thing a freedom of religion in their views). Education is available to all people, not just the rich folks. All education is available, even if it disagrees with their views. Open people's minds vs "burn the books that they don't agree with".

    Note: I do not make an issue of his business practice. If he is up and up (as he claims) and played by the rules that congress laid out, I'd don't care if he is a billionaire. But I certainly would not sign up with a business person without seeing his business plan either!!!. Sooo show the plan... lay them out... or admit he doesn't have any.

    July 8, 2012 06:10 pm at 6:10 pm |
  6. n

    Romney is done, he will never be the one.

    July 8, 2012 06:16 pm at 6:16 pm |
  7. Nilkinggary

    Without a state by state breakout, these aggregated polls are largely meaningless. The election is won by electoral votes by state, not by individual voters. In addition, the Gallup poll has been widely criticized for its reliance on landlines with little to no attention to cell phone polling, leading to a probable 1-2 percent systematic bias in favor of Republicans (since older people tend to be the ones with landlines, and there is some shift to the Republican side with age).

    In any event, only Virginia, Florida, and Ohio really make a difference here. Whoever gets those three wins the election.

    July 8, 2012 06:49 pm at 6:49 pm |
  8. Bren

    Just like the 2010 elections--and the recent recall of Walker in Wisconsin..........We will see the results of the "real" polls come November!! Obama and the Dems running on increased taxes through Obamacare and by letting the Bush tax cuts expire.....Yep, that should really win over voters in November!! I personally cannot wait until November!! I hope that you have moving boxes and a moving truck lined up Obama--because you WILL be sent back to Chicago in November!!

    July 8, 2012 06:54 pm at 6:54 pm |
  9. Sue

    As many political experts have stated, the majority of undecideds usually go for the "new" guy on election day!! The majority of Independents are supporting Romney. Independents, the largest voting block in our country-and who will decide the election. As the election gets closer, we will begin to see the real poll results, instead of the manipulated poll results put out by the Obama supporting MSM in order to protect Obama and try to sway votes. However, once the real poll results begin to come out-it will be too late for Obama and the liberals to do anything, just like in 2010.

    July 8, 2012 06:58 pm at 6:58 pm |
  10. 1rooster

    Mitt Willard Romney is definitely one CONFUSED individual. If elected, he will be an even more CONFUSED president. This will in turn make the the U.S. the most CONFUSED nation on Earth. The U.S.will become a 'Ball Of Confusion' under Romney.

    July 8, 2012 07:33 pm at 7:33 pm |
  11. judith

    As long as Obama keeps his lead in Ohio, Mittens is toast. Obama can put together any number of combinations to win, but Romney is sunk if he can't carry Ohio.. I'm proud to say that out here in my adopted Golden State, Obama has an enormous 18 point lead.

    July 8, 2012 08:05 pm at 8:05 pm |
  12. MDNA = MaDge Not Applicable!

    As we all found out in 2000 the general vote means nothing, it all comes down to the Electoral College and Nate has VA, OH, and IA all with 60% higher going to President O, and FL going as well but it is only 51% but plenty of leeway for the President, who does not FL to win currently he is predicted to take 297 to Robme's 240. Robme on the other hand MUST take 2 of the 4.

    OOOOPPPSSSS as you GOP's moronic Perry would say!

    July 8, 2012 08:12 pm at 8:12 pm |
  13. Name

    Its going to grow after the debates

    July 8, 2012 08:14 pm at 8:14 pm |
  14. s.positive

    I leave in Ohio, and by God's grace know that Romney and his gop lot will lose Ohio in Nov. His auto industry problem will continue to be his demise...

    July 8, 2012 08:26 pm at 8:26 pm |
  15. george

    Voters in the swing states have more political sense than voters from so-called red and blue states. American electors are very foolish most of whom can be bought.

    July 8, 2012 08:37 pm at 8:37 pm |
  16. Larry L

    Independent voters can simply "look" at Romney and see the difference. He's a spoiled preppy bought and paid for by the other fat-cats. The Fox News crowd can be deceived by the Koch brothers lies but truly independent voters aren't stupid. The swing states will be decided by independent voters who ask the question "what did Republicans do to help?".

    July 8, 2012 09:27 pm at 9:27 pm |
  17. LIP

    Bottom Line is this...unemployment is at 8.2 %...The Health Care Bill is a tax and small businesses will not hire more people and will probably let people go. Everybody's taxes are going to increase and now Obama is going to let the Bush tax cuts lapse. Enjoying the ride yet? IIf we reelect Obama, the ride will only get worse, especially for the middle class.

    July 8, 2012 09:41 pm at 9:41 pm |
  18. Anonymous

    I wish this result still same as election day... I know that voters already made up their mind no matter what GOP or their super pac spend billion of dollars to attack Obama....They have chosen the President who represents 99% people, not 1% people who are so greedy...

    July 8, 2012 09:45 pm at 9:45 pm |
  19. Darryl

    I hope people realize it would NOT be in their best interest to have a WALLSTREET CEO running our country as POTUS. Romney is part of the problem why this country went into a Deep Depression not a recession like some people say.Anyhow if he were to be the POTUS it would only be good for the wealthy and Wallstreet Period.

    July 8, 2012 10:00 pm at 10:00 pm |
  20. ohio

    amazing to me that this race is so close. Obama should be flying by a completely out of touch Romney.
    It's sad. Romney will do nothing to make anyone's life better. It's that simple.

    July 8, 2012 10:13 pm at 10:13 pm |
  21. Dave

    And if the media didn't protect Obama, Romney would be winning by a landslide.

    July 8, 2012 10:27 pm at 10:27 pm |
  22. Name Justin

    Obama is not a person who knows what he is doing. Romney has my vote unlike obama who I did not vote in. Romney is for the midde class. Unlike obama who is attacking the middle buy attacking the rich . The rich people are the job creators when you attack them thy start to fire to lower the bulls eye on there forehead. Romney will not attack the middle class like this. And I hope obama.care is removed . I have epolepsy and a job this law endangers my insurance every day it is forced down the poket books of hard working americans I pay for my insurance and don't much like obama bums.

    July 8, 2012 10:30 pm at 10:30 pm |
  23. obamamnesty

    November is coming! More of the same or real change! Hillary wants to now fundamentally change Syria. Yeah and that worked real well here.

    July 8, 2012 10:30 pm at 10:30 pm |
  24. L. david knighton

    It's important to,always vote,not the party,but the issues,as they your life."

    July 8, 2012 11:45 pm at 11:45 pm |
  25. S.B. Stein E.B. NJ

    This is still just guessing. Part of it is turn out and debate performance. It is too early to tell who will win.

    July 8, 2012 11:59 pm at 11:59 pm |
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