Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
August 1st, 2012
07:37 AM ET
2 years ago

Poll: Obama over 50% in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

(CNN) - President Barack Obama has a majority of voters backing him in three critical battleground states, according to a survey released Wednesday.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll showed Obama leading his Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Florida 51%-45%, in Ohio 50%-44%, and in Pennsylvania 53%-42%. Florida and Ohio are considered toss-ups in November's general election, while Pennsylvania is rated "lean Obama" on CNN's Electoral Map.

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The poll indicated that only 4% of likely voters in each of the three states had yet to decide on a candidate to support. Among Romney backers, 10% in Florida and Ohio and 9% in Pennsylvania said they could change their mind before November. Eleven percent of Obama's supporters in Florida said they could change their minds, compared to 13% in Ohio and 15% in Pennsylvania.

"If today were November 6, President Barack Obama would sweep the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and – if history is any guide – into a second term in the Oval Office," Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, wrote in a statement accompanying the poll's release.

Brown cited better-than-average unemployment rates in Ohio and Florida as possible factors in Obama's lead there, writing that "The president is running better in the key swing states than he is nationally."

Among self-identified independents, Obama edges Romney in Florida 47%-46%, and Ohio 47%-44%. The president's lead among independents in Pennsylvania is more robust, 58%-36%.

A gender gap persists in all three states, where women are more likely to back Obama and men go stronger for Romney.

In all three battlegrounds, an enthusiasm gap persists between the two candidates. Sixty five percent of Obama supporters in Florida say they strongly favor the president, compared to 49% of Romney's backers who say they strongly favor the Republican candidate.

In Ohio, 60% were "strongly supporting" Obama, compared to 42% who said the same for Romney. And in Pennsylvania, 59% were strong supporters of Obama and 41% were strongly supporting Romney.

On the economy, voters are split between Obama and Romney. Forty seven percent of Floridians said Romney would do a better job handing economic issues, compared to 45% who named Obama.

In Ohio, 46% of voters said Obama would better handle to economy, and 45% picked Romney. Pennsylvanians gave Obama higher marks on the economy, with 48% naming the president as better on the economy and 44% naming Romney.

"All this matters because half of all likely voters say the economy is the most important issue to their vote, far ahead of any other issue. The saving grace for Gov. Mitt Romney is that he roughly breaks even with the president on who is best on the economy," Brown said.

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll was conducted by telephone July 24-30. In Florida, 1,177 likely voters were polled and the sampling error was plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. In Ohio, 1,193 likely voters were called with a sampling error of 2.8 percentage points. And in Pennsylvania, 1,168 likely voters were polled with a sampling error of 2.9 percentage points.

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Filed under: Florida • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (166 Responses)
  1. zaggs

    Accurate poll, if you think somehow democrats will turn out more in November in these 3 states than they have the last few elections including 2008 (just last week Gallup found the opposite to be true). Otherwise more bad sampling to make the president look good.

    August 1, 2012 08:54 am at 8:54 am |
  2. ABCD

    There is nothing people admire and like more than TRUST. With Mr. Severely conservative dancing around with his Tax Returns, he will continue to drop in polls. Trust is not bought, it is earned by showing sincerity.

    August 1, 2012 08:54 am at 8:54 am |
  3. Jaun in El Paso

    ..."Eleven percent of Obama's supporters in Florida said they could change their minds, compared to 13% in Ohio and 15% in Pennsylvania"... So the poll is null and the headline misleading. Maybe they should go back to stories about Obamas' slave blood – the original slave at that – from his mothers side to boot.

    August 1, 2012 08:55 am at 8:55 am |
  4. TheMagusNYC

    The media portrays a close race with focus on economy to increase viewer interest. Thank God our president is not being contested by viable opposition.

    August 1, 2012 08:56 am at 8:56 am |
  5. chilly g

    this is what the country need another term for the president,he took out osama and he has keep the heat on the rest of the terroist. the economy will get better ,the republicans has been trying to make sure the economy don't inprove
    because the only thing they care about is maeing the president fail and they action has had some effect on the
    economy not moving in the wright direction and for that they need to be voted out of office.THE PRESIDENT WILL WIN.

    August 1, 2012 08:56 am at 8:56 am |
  6. kev

    I live in Pittsburgh and i have to say its time to stop calling PA a "swing" state....They are a blue state the last 20 yrs

    August 1, 2012 08:56 am at 8:56 am |
  7. Kevin

    It will be good for Mitt Romney to realize that he can't complain his way into the Oval Office, he has to earn it.

    Now tell us what's your real plans for the economy, national debt, health care, etc.

    All we have been hearing now is his attacks of Obama and complaints of media "bias".

    Maybe the media will have chance to be less biased if you actually take more than 3 questions from the media during the 6-day foreign trip.

    August 1, 2012 08:57 am at 8:57 am |
  8. Karla

    I have a feeling this will be a landslide for Romney. You can't win on Obama's record. Extremely high unemployment (which can't even be completely calculated because many people has completely faded out of the job market after looking so long), a HUGE deficit (larger than all of the other president's combined...that is a fact), people's freedoms taken away and a "dictator" mentality that government has a better understanding of what we should and should not do (hence cramming health care down our throats, which has personally hit my pocketbook trifold). Groceries, gas and general living has gone up. WHY ON EARTH would anyone vote for a man who has done this to our country and please don't respond that he is just dealing with what Bush left him. If my sister and I share a credit card and I buy the equivalent of $100 worth of items on it and she spends another $5000 to buy things that she doesn't need and can't pay for, who is to blame??? I'd say she is. That is the simplified version of what has happened to this out of control spending that my children and your children and their children will have to pay for. No thank you!

    August 1, 2012 08:57 am at 8:57 am |
  9. thisiswrong

    Any poll conducted by any news agency is not to be regarded as accurate. If you want to see the truth look at rasmussen or Gallup...this poll is a joke and media propaganda to prop up Obama's weak fund raising.

    August 1, 2012 08:58 am at 8:58 am |
  10. TheMagusNYC

    The "economy" really is a red herring, with Roe and the ACA under attack, and appointment of justices, and threats to extend tax cuts with no increases in revenues.

    August 1, 2012 08:58 am at 8:58 am |
  11. Fed Up Republican

    Just wait until the debate. President Obama will have a huge lead after Romney delivers his usual flip flop, vague answers and NO ACTION PLAN.

    August 1, 2012 09:00 am at 9:00 am |
  12. LIB

    I go by the crowds they draw for their speeches and Mitt has yet to get the crowds Obama gets! Obama 2012

    August 1, 2012 09:01 am at 9:01 am |
  13. Anon

    Romney is toast.

    August 1, 2012 09:01 am at 9:01 am |
  14. Rudy NYC

    Fair is Fair

    I wasn't polled.
    My father wasn't polled.
    My best friend wasn't polled.
    They don't call cell phones.

    There... now do you see how foolish you sound when the "polls" favor the other guy?
    -----------------
    Do you know how foolish you sound? The polls were conducted in FL, OH, and PA. They did not poll any of the people in the state where you live. Or are you just trying to be a faithful, little conservative and mislead people with cherrypicked facts?

    August 1, 2012 09:01 am at 9:01 am |
  15. JimfromBham

    You can tell how close the candidates think this race is by counting the number of times they visit New Hampshire, a "toss up" state with only 4 electoral votes. Apparently, at least Romney thinks those 4 votes will be important.

    This election will be decided by 2% of the (and as of right now, undecided) voters in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Colorado. Of 140,000,000 or so likely voters, there are only about 3,000,000 who are truly undecided nationally, and less than 1,000,000 in the swing states.

    Bet the candidates would like to know who the swing state "undecideds" really are. Don't you know those poor folks would be deluged with calls, mail, visits, etc., for the next few months!!

    August 1, 2012 09:02 am at 9:02 am |
  16. SHADES

    Obama just lost the African american religous vote, he's done, cooked, finale without that
    so stop it CNN

    August 1, 2012 09:03 am at 9:03 am |
  17. Bob

    sure funny that every other poll in the world has Romney leading in florida. Sure is funny that every other poll in the world has Romney at 48 to 45 over nobama. Looks to me like CBS is trying to boost Obama's fund raising.

    August 1, 2012 09:04 am at 9:04 am |
  18. Blah blah the wheel's off your trailer

    Hey teapublicans, don't be so blue! A recen poll revealed that Mitt Romney is leading President Obama by 85 percent in red states!

    August 1, 2012 09:05 am at 9:05 am |
  19. Caroline

    So in Pennsylvania, how many of the people polled will actually be allowed to vote given the new restrictive voter ID law? Polls don't mean anything anymore if 1 in 10 voters will be disenfranchised.

    August 1, 2012 09:07 am at 9:07 am |
  20. toughtimes

    These polls are worthless as are many exit polls. The ones that will upstage the revolt against the current administration (in the form of surprises on election day), don't take part in the polls. Many democrats and union members are going to vote republican because they can't even stand Barry and his failures.

    August 1, 2012 09:08 am at 9:08 am |
  21. jason

    Mike: The selection process is random. It only means there are 6-9% more democrats in those states. If they did a random poll on religion, they would find that there about 80% more Christians than other religions, for example.

    August 1, 2012 09:08 am at 9:08 am |
  22. Americaneedsrealists

    Anyone who would vote for Obama is just not paying attention, other than his ability to take out terrorists his presidency has been an unmitigated disaster. For all of you Obama zombies and robots that means he has done a poor job. Just wanted to clarify that for all who vote democrat and can't even name the three branches of government and what their function is.

    August 1, 2012 09:08 am at 9:08 am |
  23. Unemployment

    The article notes that Ohio voters are possibly swayed by the fact that their unemployment is a FULL percent lower than national average. Ohio's governor is Republican (one of the ones who tried to reform union waste -like Wisconsin). Notice how the media fails to even mention the governor, who should be getting the credit for this state-level variation. And since people blindly follow only what the media tells them, a whole lot of Ohio voters just blindly support Obama.

    August 1, 2012 09:09 am at 9:09 am |
  24. SB1790

    These polls are useless in my opinion when you have such narrow margins. The American public is fickle about it's opinions. All it would take is one major event to swing the opposite way. We could have something totally out of our sphere of control in terms of world events that could change opinion. Suppose we were faced with the scenario of a war between Israel and Iran and were forced to get involved. Suppose our response was handled in a very bad light in terms of public opinion. The president would be the scape goat. Taxes, economic events, natural disasters, war, all can radically shift popular opinion very quickly in a matter of days. It's way too soon to tell what's going to happen in November.

    August 1, 2012 09:09 am at 9:09 am |
  25. JPX

    This is great news! I love all the hateful comments from the republicans – 4 years later they still can't accept that we have an African American president who is actually undoing 8 years of Bush/Cheney damage.

    August 1, 2012 09:10 am at 9:10 am |
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